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ES Tunis v Asswehly

ES Tunis
1–0After penalties
Asswehly

CAF Champions League · SAT 24 OCT · Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi

After 90 minutesGraded 24 Oct 19:48
ES Tunis 1–0 Asswehly ES TUNIS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said ES Tunis win46%
The market said79%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.435
The market’s Brier score0.072

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 1–0, the score after 90 minutes. ES Tunis won 3–1 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said ES Tunis win at 46%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: ES Tunis 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–30–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF ES Tunis v Asswehly
  4. 8′ES Tunis find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
  5. 8′We said ES Tunis at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
  6. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' ES Tunis 1–0 Asswehly
  7. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' ES Tunis win: 46% at kick-off, 77% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–5
  9. 42′We said ES Tunis at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  10. 45′HALF-TIME ES Tunis 1–0 Asswehly
  11. 46′SECOND HALF ES Tunis 1–0 Asswehly
  12. 63′We said ES Tunis at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  13. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' ES Tunis win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
  14. 75′We said ES Tunis at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  15. 84′We said ES Tunis at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  16. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' ES Tunis win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
  17. 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes ES Tunis likeliest at 84%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
  18. 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  19. FTFULL TIME ES Tunis 1–0 Asswehly
  20. FTES Tunis 1–0 Asswehly after 90 minutes, as graded · ES Tunis win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ES Tunis are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ES Tunis 46%, draw 30%, Asswehly 24%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on ES Tunis v AsswehlyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

ES Tunis win46%
Draw30%
Asswehly win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

Round2nd preliminary round

VenueStade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ES Tunis

Asswehly

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · CAF Champions League

Last match: 18 Oct · CAF Champions League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · es tunis winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off
46% The market79%
Us46%
Market79%

We make ES Tunis a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 79%. We are 33 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · ES Tunis v Asswehly1.26 – 0.81
Form · CAF Champions League this season · since 4 SeptW0 D0 L1 · W3 D0 L0
The market · ES Tunis win79% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%50%60%70%80%90% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 16:17
Our probability · ES Tunis win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 79% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
ES Tunis win46%79%−33
Draw30%15%+15
Asswehly win24%7%+17
Over 2.5 goals34%59%−25
Both teams to score40%40%0
Over 1.5 goals62%79%−17
Over 3.5 goals16%38%−22
ES Tunis or draw76%93%−17
ES Tunis clean sheet44%––
Asswehly clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.4%
0123450 13.0 9.9 4.2 1 15.4 13.3 5.3 2 9.9 8.1 3.3 3 4.2 3.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+ES Tunis down, Asswehly across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsASS 1–0 EST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Champions League this season · since 4 Sept

ES TUNIS

L0–1

ASSWEHLY

WWW1–0 · 3–0 · 1–0