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Model 1.2

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Enugu Rangers v MC Alger

Enugu Rangers
2–0Full time
MC Alger

CAF Champions League · SUN 18 OCT · Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43
Enugu Rangers 2–0 MC Alger MC ALGER WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said MC Alger win60%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.190
The market’s Brier score0.826

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said MC Alger win at 60%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: MC Alger 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 13–27–60
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Enugu Rangers v MC Alger
  4. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' MC Alger win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
  5. 35′We said MC Alger at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 13–39–48
  6. 43′We said MC Alger at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 12–43–44
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Enugu Rangers 0–0 MC Alger
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Enugu Rangers 0–0 MC Alger
  9. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was MC Alger win 42%)
  10. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' MC Alger win: 60% at kick-off, 40% now
  11. 52′We said MC Alger at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 11–49–39
  12. 59′We said MC Alger at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 10–55–34
  13. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' MC Alger win: 60% at kick-off, 30% now
  14. 66′We said MC Alger at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 9–62–29
  15. 71′We said MC Alger at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 8–68–24
  16. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' MC Alger win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
  17. 76′We said MC Alger at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 6–75–19
  18. 80′We said MC Alger at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 5–81–14
  19. 82′MC Alger find the net on 81′. 0–1. 0–1 · 0–4–96
  20. 82′We said MC Alger at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 0–1 · 0–4–96
  21. 82′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 1–1 · 4–84–12
  22. 82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Enugu Rangers 0–1 MC Alger
  23. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' MC Alger win: 60% at kick-off, 96% now
  24. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' MC Alger win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
  25. 82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Enugu Rangers 1–1 MC Alger
  26. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' MC Alger win: 60% at kick-off, 12% now
  27. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 84% (was MC Alger win 12%)
  28. 83′We said MC Alger at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  29. 83′MC Alger are down to ten from 53′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  30. 83′GOAL DISALLOWED · 83' MC Alger
  31. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' MC Alger win: 60% at kick-off, 1% now
  32. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Enugu Rangers win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 10%)
  33. 83′🟥 RED CARD · 53' O. Benhaoua · MC Alger
  34. 84′A goal for MC Alger on 84′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 3–88–9
  35. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Enugu Rangers 1–1 MC Alger
  36. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Enugu Rangers win 3%)
  37. 85′A goal for Enugu Rangers on 85′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  38. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Enugu Rangers 2–0 MC Alger
  39. 85′GOAL DISALLOWED · 85' MC Alger
  40. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' MC Alger win: 60% at kick-off, under 1% now
  41. 85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Enugu Rangers win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw under 1%)
  42. 86′MC Alger score on 86′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 92–7–0
  43. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Enugu Rangers 2–1 MC Alger
  44. 87′GOAL DISALLOWED · 87' MC Alger
  45. FTFULL TIME Enugu Rangers 2–0 MC Alger
  46. FTEnugu Rangers 2–0 MC Alger · MC Alger win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

MC Alger are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Enugu Rangers 13%, draw 27%, MC Alger 60%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on Enugu Rangers v MC AlgerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Enugu Rangers win13%
Draw27%
MC Alger win60%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

Round2nd preliminary round

VenueNnamdi Azikiwe Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Enugu Rangers

MC Alger

7Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · NPFL

Last match: 13 Oct · Ligue 1 (Algeria)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mc alger winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
60% The market44%
Us60%
Market44%

We make MC Alger a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Enugu Rangers v MC Alger0.53 – 1.46
Form · CAF Champions League this season · since 6 SeptW0 D2 L0 · W1 D1 L0
The market · MC Alger win44% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60%65% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 13:55
Our probability · MC Alger win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Enugu Rangers win13%26%−13
Draw27%30%−3
MC Alger win60%44%+16
Over 2.5 goals32%40%−8
Both teams to score32%46%−14
Over 1.5 goals60%64%−4
Over 3.5 goals14%21%−7
Enugu Rangers or draw40%56%−16
Enugu Rangers clean sheet23%––
MC Alger clean sheet59%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 19.6%
0123450 14.0 19.6 14.6 7.1 2.6 1 6.9 10.9 7.7 3.8 2 2.8 2.1 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Enugu Rangers down, MC Alger across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Champions League this season · since 6 Sept

ENUGU RANGERS

DD1–1 · 1–1

MC ALGER

DW0–0 · 5–0