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Model 1.2

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Club Africain v TP Mazembe

Club Africain
17:00Upcoming
TP Mazembe

CAF Champions League · SUN 25 OCT · Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Club AfricainDrawTP Mazembe
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00
Before kick-off · Match result · TP Mazembe 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with TP Mazembe just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Club Africain 27%, draw 35%, TP Mazembe 38%. Over 2.5 goals 23%, both teams to score 31%.

The AI’s read on Club Africain v TP MazembeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Club Africain win27%
Draw35%
TP Mazembe win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 17:00

Round2nd preliminary round

VenueStade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Club Africain

TP Mazembe

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · CAF Champions League

Last match: 17 Oct · CAF Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tp mazembe winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 25 Oct 00:30 · locked at kick-off
38% The market10%
Us38%
Market10%

We make TP Mazembe a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 10%. We are 28 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Club Africain v TP Mazembe0.72 – 0.93
Form · CAF Champions League this season · since 5 SeptW1 D2 L0 · W2 D1 L0
The market · TP Mazembe win10% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
0%10%20%30%40%50% 19 OCT 01:3725 OCT 02:27
Our probability · TP Mazembe win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 10% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Club Africain win27%68%−41
Draw35%22%+13
TP Mazembe win38%10%+28
Over 2.5 goals23%48%−25
Both teams to score31%40%−9
Over 1.5 goals49%71%−22
Over 3.5 goals9%28%−19
Club Africain or draw62%90%−28
Club Africain clean sheet40%––
TP Mazembe clean sheet49%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 19.7%
0123450 19.7 17.4 8.3 2.5 1 13.5 13.3 6.0 2 5.0 4.6 2.1 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Club Africain down, TP Mazembe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsTPM 1–1 CLU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Champions League this season · since 5 Sept

CLUB AFRICAIN

WDD1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1

TP MAZEMBE

WWD1–0 · 3–1 · 1–1