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Model 1.2

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Asswehly v ES Tunis

Asswehly
1–0Full time
ES Tunis

CAF Champions League · SUN 18 OCT · Misurata Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:31
Asswehly 1–0 ES Tunis ES TUNIS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said ES Tunis win37%
The market said62%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.698
The market’s Brier score1.182

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said ES Tunis win at 37%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: ES Tunis was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 32–31–37
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Asswehly v ES Tunis
  4. 26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was ES Tunis win 33%)
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Asswehly 0–0 ES Tunis
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Asswehly 0–0 ES Tunis
  7. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' ES Tunis win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
  8. 55′We said ES Tunis at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–0 · 22–52–25
  9. 57′We said ES Tunis at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 22–54–24
  10. 64′A goal for Asswehly on 64′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–18–3
  11. 64′We said ES Tunis at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–0 · 79–18–3
  12. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Asswehly 1–0 ES Tunis
  13. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' ES Tunis win: 37% at kick-off, 3% now
  14. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Asswehly win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
  15. FTFULL TIME Asswehly 1–0 ES Tunis
  16. FTAsswehly 1–0 ES Tunis · ES Tunis win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ES Tunis are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Asswehly 32%, draw 31%, ES Tunis 37%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Asswehly v ES TunisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Asswehly win32%
Draw31%
ES Tunis win37%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:00

Round2nd preliminary round

VenueMisurata Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Asswehly

ES Tunis

35Days since last match8

Last match: 13 Sept · CAF Champions League

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 1 (Tunisia)

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · es tunis winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
37% The market62%
Us37%
Market62%

We make ES Tunis a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 25 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Asswehly v ES Tunis0.98 – 1.08
The market · ES Tunis win62% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%40%50%60%70% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 17:50
Our probability · ES Tunis win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Asswehly win32%14%+18
Draw31%24%+7
ES Tunis win37%62%−25
Over 2.5 goals34%44%−10
Both teams to score42%42%0
Over 1.5 goals62%69%−7
Over 3.5 goals16%24%−8
Asswehly or draw63%38%+25
Asswehly clean sheet34%––
ES Tunis clean sheet37%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%
0123450 13.1 13.3 7.4 2.7 1 12.0 13.9 7.3 2.6 2 6.1 6.6 3.6 3 2.0 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Asswehly down, ES Tunis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Champions League this season · since 4 Sept

ASSWEHLY

WW1–0 · 3–0

ES TUNIS

No matches in our record yet.