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APR v Zamalek SC
APRZamalek SCCAF Champions League · FRI 16 OCT · Stade Amahoro
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Zamalek SC win at 59%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Zamalek SC was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 16–25–59
- 1′KICK-OFF APR v Zamalek SC
- 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Zamalek SC win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
- 38′We said Zamalek SC at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 15–37–47
- 42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' APR
- 45′We said Zamalek SC at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 15–41–44
- 45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Zamalek SC
- 45′HALF-TIME APR 0–0 Zamalek SC
- 46′SECOND HALF APR 0–0 Zamalek SC
- 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Zamalek SC win 40%)
- 54′We said Zamalek SC at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 14–47–39
- 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Zamalek SC win: 59% at kick-off, 39% now
- 62′We said Zamalek SC at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 12–54–33
- 67′We said Zamalek SC at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 11–60–29
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Zamalek SC win: 59% at kick-off, 29% now
- 73′We said Zamalek SC at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 9–67–23
- 77′We said Zamalek SC at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 8–73–19
- 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Zamalek SC win: 59% at kick-off, 19% now
- 79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Zamalek SC
- 81′We said Zamalek SC at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 6–80–14
- 85′We said Zamalek SC at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 4–87–9
- 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Zamalek SC win: 59% at kick-off, 9% now
- 90′Zamalek SC find the net on 90′. 0–0 · 2–93–5
- 90′We published Zamalek SC at 59%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–1 · 0–2–98
- 90′Full time, 0–1. We called Zamalek SC at 59% — that one lands. 0–1 · 0–0–100
- 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' APR 0–1 Zamalek SC
- 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Zamalek SC win: 59% at kick-off, 98% now
- 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Zamalek SC win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
- 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Zamalek SC win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
- 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' APR
- FTFULL TIME APR 0–1 Zamalek SC
- FTAPR 0–1 Zamalek SC · Zamalek SC win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassZamalek SC are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: APR 15%, draw 25%, Zamalek SC 59%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 40%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
APR win15%Zamalek SC win59%Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00
Round2nd preliminary round
VenueStade Amahoro
Match timeline
All events
APRMINZamalek SCEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
APR
Zamalek SC
Last match: 16 Sept · National Soccer League
Last match: 11 Oct · the Egyptian Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Zamalek SC a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 0.7–1.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 60%, 59% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| APR win | 15% | 16% | −1 |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | −2 |
| Zamalek SC win | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 40% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | 64% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 21% | −1 |
| APR or draw | 41% | 43% | −2 |
| APR clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
| Zamalek SC clean sheet | 50% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · CAF Champions League this season · since 4 Sept
APR
ZAMALEK SC