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Al Merreikh v Horoya
Al MerreikhHoroyaCAF Champions League · SAT 24 OCT · Al Merreikh Stadium
Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 1–0, the score after 90 minutes. Horoya won 3–5 on penalties.
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Horoya win at 36%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Horoya was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 28–36–36
- 1′KICK-OFF Al Merreikh v Horoya
- 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Horoya win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
- 45′SECOND HALF Al Merreikh 0–0 Horoya
- 48′HALF-TIME Al Merreikh 0–0 Horoya
- 51′We said Horoya at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 20–56–24
- 62′We said Horoya at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 16–64–19
- 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Horoya win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
- 69′We said Horoya at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
- 69′Goals are coming at about the 1.6 we expected. 1–0 · 84–14–2
- 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Al Merreikh 1–0 Horoya
- 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Horoya win: 36% at kick-off, 2% now
- 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Al Merreikh win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 71%)
- 70′Al Merreikh find the net on 70′. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–14–1
- 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Al Merreikh likeliest at 80%. 1–0 · 80–18–3
- 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 1–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Al Merreikh 1–0 Horoya
- FTAl Merreikh 1–0 Horoya after 90 minutes, as graded · Horoya win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Close to call, with Horoya just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: Al Merreikh 28%, draw 36%, Horoya 36%. Over 2.5 goals 22%, both teams to score 31%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Al Merreikh win28%Horoya win36%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:00
Round2nd preliminary round
VenueAl Merreikh Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Al MerreikhMINHoroyaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Al Merreikh
Horoya
Last match: 18 Oct · CAF Champions League
Last match: 18 Oct · CAF Champions League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Horoya a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 19%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 19% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Merreikh win | 28% | 53% | −25 |
| Draw | 36% | 28% | +8 |
| Horoya win | 36% | 19% | +17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 22% | 40% | −18 |
| Both teams to score | 31% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 48% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 8% | – | – |
| Al Merreikh or draw | 64% | 81% | −17 |
| Al Merreikh clean sheet | 42% | – | – |
| Horoya clean sheet | 48% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2020/21Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · CAF Champions League this season · since 4 Sept
AL MERREIKH
HOROYA