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Model 1.1

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Qatar SC v Al Zawra'a

Qatar SC
1–1Full time
Al Zawra'a

AGCFF Gulf Champions League · TUE 13 OCT · Qatar SC Stadium

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 18:25
Qatar SC 1–1 Al Zawra'a QATAR SC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Qatar SC win43%
The market said50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.806
The market’s Brier score0.873

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Qatar SC win at 43%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Qatar SC was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–31
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Qatar SC v Al Zawra'a
  4. 21′PENALTY MISSED · 21' Al Zawra'a
  5. 22′Al Zawra'a find the net on 21′. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–24–60
  6. 22′PENALTY MISSED · 21' Al Zawra'a
  7. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Qatar SC 0–1 Al Zawra'a
  8. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Qatar SC win: 43% at kick-off, 16% now
  9. 22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Al Zawra'a win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Qatar SC win 16%)
  10. 24′We said Qatar SC at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–24–61
  11. 29′We said Qatar SC at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
  12. 31′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 14–24–62
  13. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Qatar SC win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
  14. 45′A goal for Qatar SC on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–40–26
  15. 45′⚽ GOAL · 50' Qatar SC 1–1 Al Zawra'a
  16. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Qatar SC win: 43% at kick-off, 34% now
  17. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Al Zawra'a win 26%)
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Qatar SC 1–1 Al Zawra'a
  19. 46′SECOND HALF Qatar SC 1–1 Al Zawra'a
  20. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Qatar SC
  21. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Qatar SC win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
  22. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Qatar SC
  23. 54′We said Qatar SC at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–46–24
  24. 57′We said Qatar SC at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–48–23
  25. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Qatar SC · On: A. Ibrahim · Off: S. Brahmi
  26. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Al Zawra'a · On: R. Kadhim · Off: L. Al Ani
  27. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Al Zawra'a · On: H. F. Kadhim · Off: M. Qasim
  28. 67′We said Qatar SC at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–19
  29. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Qatar SC win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
  30. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Al Zawra'a
  31. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' R. Kadhim · Al Zawra'a
  32. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' R. Kadhim · Al Zawra'a
  33. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 76' R. Kadhim · Al Zawra'a
  34. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Qatar SC win: 43% at kick-off, 12% now
  35. 85′We said Qatar SC at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–86–6
  36. 90′We said Qatar SC at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  37. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Al Zawra'a · On: M. Artien · Off: A. Adnan
  38. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Al Zawra'a · On: I. Soro · Off: H. Abdulkareem
  39. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 96' Qatar SC · On: M. Mushrinn · Off: F. Selemani
  40. FTFULL TIME Qatar SC 1–1 Al Zawra'a
  41. FTQatar SC 1–1 Al Zawra'a · Qatar SC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –
2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –
3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –
The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 15:17 · locked at kick-off

Qatar SC win43%
Draw27%
Al Zawra'a win30%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 15:45

VenueQatar SC Stadium

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Qatar SC

Formation not confirmed

17 A. Mahmoud

2 N. Baksh

40 S. Diouf

4 A. Saoudi

20 E. Palangi

6 P. Prim

24 N. Mason

14 S. Brahmi

11 Y. Boli

7 F. Selemani

9 Joao Pedro

Coach · Bartolome Marquez Lopez

Substitutes

33 · A. Ali

74 · S. Al Abbasi

19 · A. Ibrahim

15 · K. Al-Obaidly

16 · A. Mohsin Ali

42 · Y. Lafrid

23 · S. Soria

44 · A. Hanfy

96 · A. Jaber

28 · A. Addai

5 · A. Gunnarsson

18 · M. Mushrinn

Al Zawra'a

Formation not confirmed

21 M. Mohammed

27 S. M. Fadhil Najafi

44 M. Chobanov

53 A. Adnan

25 S. M. Mahdi Al Saedi

22 E. Ededem

4 L. Al Ani

99 H. Abdulkareem

10 M. Qasim

7 H. Ahmed

72 M. Sherif

Coach · Hussam Fawzi

Substitutes

40 · A. J. Khalaf

3 · M. Artien

79 · H. Zayad

14 · R. Kadhim

16 · A. F. Salim

6 · H. F. Kadhim

15 · I. Soro

8 · N. Fernandez

11 · M. Cabrera

18 · Y. Aziz

Our number · qatar sc winFirst published 12 Oct 09:15 · updated 13 Oct 15:17 · locked at kick-off
43% The market50%
Us43%
Market50%

We make Qatar SC a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60% 12 OCT 09:2813 OCT 13:20
Our probability · qatar sc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Qatar SC win43%50%−8
Draw27%25%+2
Al Zawra'a win30%24%+6
Over 2.5 goals48%50%−3
Both teams to score52%52%0
Over 1.5 goals73%72%+1
Over 3.5 goals26%30%−5
Qatar SC or draw70%76%−6
Qatar SC clean sheet32%––
Al Zawra'a clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%
0123450 8.0 8.4 5.1 1 10.4 12.9 7.2 2.8 2 7.7 8.9 5.1 3 3.6 4.2 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Qatar SC down, Al Zawra'a across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2024

No meetings between these two in AGCFF Gulf Champions League since 2024. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in AGCFF Gulf Champions League

QATAR SC

No matches in our record yet.

AL ZAWRA'A

No matches in our record yet.

The table

No league table for this competition.