NEOM v Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut prediction · AGCFF Gulf Champions League

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 21:37

NEOM 4–0 Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut NEOM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT4–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said NEOM win~~97%

~~The market said~~90%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.001

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.016

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said NEOM win at 97%.
1′Much as we predicted: NEOM was 97% before kick-off and our model makes it 97% now. 0–0 · 97–2–0
1′KICK-OFF NEOM v Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut
12′A goal for NEOM on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 99–1–0
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' NEOM 1–0 Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut
16′15′ and it is 2–0: NEOM have scored. 2–0 · 100–0–0
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' NEOM 2–0 Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' NEOM 3–0 Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut
24′NEOM find the net on 23′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
45′A goal for NEOM on 45′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' NEOM 4–0 Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut
45′HALF-TIME NEOM 4–0 Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut
46′SECOND HALF NEOM 4–0 Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' NEOM · On: A. Al Hassan · Off: A. Lacazette
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' NEOM · On: G. Masouras · Off: V. Vada
48′47′ and it is 5–0: NEOM have scored. 5–0 · 100–0–0
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' NEOM 5–0 Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut · On: M. Diagabate · Off: W. Al Khyat
50′SUBSTITUTION · 47' Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut · On: A. Sabarah · Off: M. H. Al-Tairi
59′58′ and it is 5–0: NEOM have scored. 5–0 · 100–0–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' NEOM 5–0 Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut
67′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut
70′Goals are coming at about the 4.6 we expected. 4–0 · 100–0–0
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' NEOM · On: K. Al Dawsari · Off: M. Al Burayk
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut · On: O. Anbar · Off: A. Adeleke
FTFULL TIME NEOM 4–0 Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut
FTNEOM 4–0 Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut · NEOM win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 4–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

NEOM win97%

Draw2%

Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut win0%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:00

VenueKing Khalid Sports City

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

NEOM

Formation not confirmed

81 L. Maximiano

2 M. Al Burayk

55 M. Al Dossary

5 M. Sarr

19 M. Abu Taha

8 F. Al Ghamdi

23 V. Vada

77 M. Al Saad

10 S. Benrahma

14 K. Al Absi

91 A. Lacazette

Coach · Christophe Galtier

Substitutes

1 · M. Bulka

33 · A. Dagriri

4 · K. Al Dawsari

27 · I. Hawsawi

44 · N. Zeze

75 · K. Al Rammah

6 · A. Al Hassan

7 · G. Masouras

15 · A. Al Oyayari

31 · D. Biaka

22 · A. Al Anzi

70 · H. Camara

Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Aman

2 A. Dahman

3 E. B. El Id

6 S. Saeed

97 A. Al Dugin

18 M. H. Al-Tairi

55 A. Adeleke

17 A. K. Al Douh

8 W. Al Khyat

9 H. A. Khamisi

90 O. Al Katheri

Coach · –

Substitutes

– · A. Al Sadi

23 · M. Ba Sharaheel

5 · H. Balabl

27 · A. Daleeo

32 · M. Jassar

77 · M. Diagabate

15 · M. Faozi

19 · O. Anbar

20 · Emad Mansoor

10 · A. Sabarah

50 · N. Hamidah

7 · Z. Al Garash

Our number · neom winFirst published 12 Oct 09:15 · updated 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

97% The market90%

Us97%

~~Market~~90%

We make NEOM a 97% chance to win. The market has them at 90%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 4.4–0.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · neom win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 90% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NEOM win	97%	90%	+7
Draw	2%	7%	−5
Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut win	0%	3%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	84%	80%	+5
Both teams to score	20%	34%	−14
Over 1.5 goals	95%	90%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	69%	65%	+4
NEOM or draw	100%	97%	+2
NEOM clean sheet	80%	–	–
Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut clean sheet	1%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 4–0 at 15.3%

0123450 1 4.1 2 9.3 2.1 3 13.7 3.1 4 15.3 3.5 5 13.6 3.1

under 2% 5% 12%+NEOM down, Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

NEOM play in the Pro League, Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut in the Yemeni League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: NEOM are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

4.41 goals for NEOM, 0.23 for Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut. Most likely score 4–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2024

No meetings between these two in AGCFF Gulf Champions League since 2024. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in AGCFF Gulf Champions League

NEOM

No matches in our record yet.

AL SHA'AB HADHRAMAUT

No matches in our record yet.

The table

No league table for this competition.

NEOM v Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut

The match pulse

AI match analysis

What decides it

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

NEOM

Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut

Rest & schedule

NEOM

Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut

The game in numbers

Line-ups

NEOM

Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut

Match statistics

Line-ups

NEOM

Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut

Head to head

Form · last six in AGCFF Gulf Champions League

The table