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Model 1.2

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Erbil v Al-Ettifaq

Erbil
14:30Upcoming
Al-Ettifaq

AGCFF Gulf Champions League · WED 28 OCT · Franso Hariri Stadium

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ErbilDrawAl-Ettifaq
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:30
Before kick-off · Match result · Al-Ettifaq 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Ettifaq are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Erbil 22%, draw 25%, Al-Ettifaq 53%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Erbil v Al-EttifaqBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Erbil win22%
Draw25%
Al-Ettifaq win53%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 14:30

RoundGroup stage · matchday 2

VenueFranso Hariri Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Erbil

Al-Ettifaq

6Days since last match4

Last match: 22 Oct · Iraqi League

Last match: 24 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-ettifaq winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:30 · locked at kick-off
53% The market–
Us53%

We make Al-Ettifaq a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Erbil v Al-Ettifaq1.02 – 1.70
Form · AGCFF Gulf Champions League this season · since 14 OctW0 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55% 22 OCT 00:0125 OCT 08:18
Our probability · Al-Ettifaq win

Published at 52%, 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Erbil win22%––
Draw25%––
Al-Ettifaq win53%––
Over 2.5 goals51%––
Both teams to score53%––
Over 1.5 goals76%––
Over 3.5 goals29%––
Erbil or draw47%––
Erbil clean sheet18%––
Al-Ettifaq clean sheet36%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%
0123450 6.9 10.8 9.5 5.4 2.3 1 6.3 11.8 9.7 5.5 2.3 2 3.4 5.8 5.0 2.8 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Erbil down, Al-Ettifaq across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AGCFF Gulf Champions League this season · since 14 Oct

ERBIL

L4–5

AL-ETTIFAQ

W2–0