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Model 1.2

Home › Football › AGCFF Gulf Champions League › Al Zawra'a v Al Nasr

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Al Zawra'a v Al Nasr

Al Zawra'a
17:30Upcoming
Al Nasr

AGCFF Gulf Champions League · WED 28 OCT · Al-Zawraa Stadium

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al Zawra'aDrawAl Nasr
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30
Before kick-off · Match result · Al Nasr 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Nasr are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Zawra'a 32%, draw 29%, Al Nasr 40%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Al Zawra'a v Al NasrBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Zawra'a win32%
Draw29%
Al Nasr win40%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 17:30

RoundGroup stage · matchday 2

VenueAl-Zawraa Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Zawra'a

Al Nasr

5Days since last match5

Last match: 23 Oct · Iraqi League

Last match: 23 Oct · Presidents Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al nasr winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:27 · locked at kick-off
40% The market–
Us40%

We make Al Nasr a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Al Zawra'a v Al Nasr1.12 – 1.27
Form · AGCFF Gulf Champions League this season · since 13 OctW0 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 22 OCT 00:0124 OCT 22:53
Our probability · Al Nasr win

Published at 39%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al Zawra'a win32%––
Draw29%––
Al Nasr win40%––
Over 2.5 goals43%––
Both teams to score49%––
Over 1.5 goals69%––
Over 3.5 goals22%––
Al Zawra'a or draw60%––
Al Zawra'a clean sheet28%––
Al Nasr clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%
0123450 9.6 11.3 7.4 3.1 1 9.8 13.5 8.3 3.5 2 5.7 7.3 4.6 3 2.1 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Al Zawra'a down, Al Nasr across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AGCFF Gulf Champions League this season · since 13 Oct

AL ZAWRA'A

D1–1

AL NASR

W3–0