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Model 1.2

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Al-Shabab v NEOM

Al-Shabab
14:45Upcoming
NEOM

AGCFF Gulf Champions League · TUE 27 OCT · Al-Seeb Stadium

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al-ShababDrawNEOM
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:45
Before kick-off · Match result · NEOM 79%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NEOM are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Shabab 7%, draw 14%, NEOM 79%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Al-Shabab v NEOMBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al-Shabab win7%
Draw14%
NEOM win79%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 14:45

RoundGroup stage · matchday 2

VenueAl-Seeb Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Shabab

NEOM

4Days since last match3

Last match: 23 Oct · Professional League

Last match: 24 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · neom winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:27 · locked at kick-off
79% The market–
Us79%

We make NEOM a 79% chance to win. The model expects 0.7–2.6, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Al-Shabab v NEOM0.66 – 2.63
Form · AGCFF Gulf Champions League this season · since 13 OctW0 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
75%80%85% 21 OCT 00:0125 OCT 00:56
Our probability · NEOM win

Published at 80%, 79% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al-Shabab win7%––
Draw14%––
NEOM win79%––
Over 2.5 goals64%––
Both teams to score45%––
Over 1.5 goals84%––
Over 3.5 goals42%––
Al-Shabab or draw21%––
Al-Shabab clean sheet7%––
NEOM clean sheet52%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 12.9%
0123450 3.9 9.6 12.9 11.3 7.4 3.91 2.2 6.7 8.5 7.5 4.9 2.62 2.1 2.8 2.5 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Shabab down, NEOM across0–5 goals a side shown (94.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AGCFF Gulf Champions League this season · since 13 Oct

AL-SHABAB

L0–3

NEOM

W4–0