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Al Nasr v Al Riffa

Al Nasr
3–0Full time
Al Riffa

AGCFF Gulf Champions League · TUE 13 OCT · Al Maktoum Stadium

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 20:46
Al Nasr 3–0 Al Riffa AL NASR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al Nasr win54%
The market said57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.314
The market’s Brier score0.277

Corrected on 16 Oct: this prediction was last updated after the match had started (it kicked off on 13 Oct 17:00), so it is shown but not counted in the record’s figures.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Nasr win at 54%.
  2. 45′Al Nasr find the net on 45′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–16–5
  3. 45′We said Al Nasr at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–16–5
  4. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Al Nasr win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
  5. 46′Al Nasr ahead on 30′ through R. Mierez. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–16–5
  6. 46′⚽ GOAL · 30' Al Nasr 1–0 Al Riffa · R. Mierez (assist A. Toure)
  7. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 44' A. Sanogo · Al Nasr
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Al Nasr 1–0 Al Riffa
  9. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al Riffa · On: J. Al Shaikh · Off: A. Fadhel Al Asfoor
  10. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Al Nasr 2–0 Al Riffa
  11. 47′A goal for Al Nasr on 46′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  12. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Al Nasr win: 54% at kick-off, 95% now
  13. 48′We said Al Nasr at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  14. 49′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  15. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Al Nasr
  16. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Al Nasr 3–0 Al Riffa
  17. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Al Riffa
  18. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Al Nasr · On: Joao Moreira · Off: Z. Al Zaabi
  19. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Al Riffa
  20. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Al Nasr · On: C. Bedia · Off: R. Mierez
  21. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Al Nasr · On: M. Ghaedi · Off: L. Milivojevic
  22. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Al Riffa · On: Vargas · Off: A. Madan
  23. FTFULL TIME Al Nasr 3–0 Al Riffa
  24. FTAl Nasr 3–0 Al Riffa · Al Nasr win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –
2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –
3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –
The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

Al Nasr win54%
Draw23%
Al Riffa win23%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 18:00

VenueAl Maktoum Stadium

Line-ups

Al Nasr

Al Riffa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Al Nasr

Al Riffa

581Days since last match602
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Nasr

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Shambih

24 Z. Al Zaabi

15 A. Sanogo

26 M. Hoibraaten

55 D. Petrovic

19 L. Milivojevic

57 I. Faiz

7 K. Agudelo

70 A. Hrustic

28 A. Toure

13 R. Mierez

Coach · Milos Milojevic

Substitutes

1 · S. Maqdami

2 · S. Sultan

4 · Glauber

14 · Felipe Motta

21 · A. Idrees

30 · Joao Moreira

5 · M. Abdulbasit

6 · H. Mahdi

38 · M. Ndiaye

9 · C. Bedia

10 · M. Ghaedi

17 · Wesley Delgado

Al Riffa

Formation not confirmed

29 D. Bartkus

71 Cleitinho

3 Y. Diarra

15 H. Al Shamsan

30 Samuel Toscas

5 A. Fadhel Al Asfoor

7 A. Madan

94 K. Al Aswad

20 Rodrigo Yuri

12 Wellington

70 D. Georgijevic

Coach · –

Substitutes

24 · A. Fardan

2 · H. R. Al Asam B.

16 · S. R. Issa

19 · A. Abdulhameed

32 · M. Al Bannai

6 · H. Al Eker

10 · Vargas

13 · J. Al Shaikh

11 · A. Saeed

17 · D. Asante

45 · M. Abduljabbar

77 · T. Meziani

Our number · al nasr winFirst published 12 Oct 09:15 · updated 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off
54% The market57%
Us54%
Market57%

We make Al Nasr a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 12 OCT 09:2813 OCT 16:07
Our probability · al nasr win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al Nasr win54%57%−3
Draw23%25%−2
Al Riffa win23%18%+5
Over 2.5 goals59%50%+9
Both teams to score59%50%+9
Over 1.5 goals81%72%+9
Over 3.5 goals37%30%+7
Al Nasr or draw77%82%−5
Al Nasr clean sheet31%––
Al Riffa clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%
0123450 5.0 5.1 3.2 1 8.6 10.7 6.0 2.3 2 8.5 9.8 5.7 2.2 3 5.4 6.2 3.6 4 2.5 2.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Al Nasr down, Al Riffa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2024

No meetings between these two in AGCFF Gulf Champions League since 2024. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in AGCFF Gulf Champions League

AL NASR

DWWDLW2–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

AL RIFFA

LWDLWD1–3 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

No league table for this competition.