Al-Duhail SC v Al-Shabab prediction · AGCFF Gulf Champions League

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 18:20

Al-Duhail SC 3–0 Al-Shabab AL-DUHAIL SC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Al-Duhail SC win~~88%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.025

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.126

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Duhail SC win at 88%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al-Duhail SC was 88% before kick-off and our model makes it 87% now. 0–0 · 87–9–4
1′KICK-OFF Al-Duhail SC v Al-Shabab
6′Al-Duhail SC find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 96–3–1
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Al-Duhail SC 1–0 Al-Shabab
10′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Al-Duhail SC
12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Z. Fadi · Al-Duhail SC
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.9 we expected. 1–0 · 95–5–1
45′SECOND HALF Al-Duhail SC 1–0 Al-Shabab
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' I. Khalfan · Al-Shabab
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Al-Shabab
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al-Duhail SC · On: S. Al Brake · Off: J. Castelletto
51′A goal for Al-Duhail SC on 51′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Al-Duhail SC 2–0 Al-Shabab
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Al-Duhail SC win: 88% at kick-off, 99% now
56′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Al-Shabab · On: Y. Al Mushaifri · Off: I. Khalfan
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Al-Shabab · On: M. Al-Ghafri · Off: Y. Al Shabibi
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Al-Shabab · On: K. Bonsu · Off: H. Al Rushadi
66′We published Al-Duhail SC at 88%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
75′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Al-Duhail SC · On: A. Belmadi · Off: T. Jamshid
75′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Al-Duhail SC · On: S. Yansane · Off: K. Piatek
75′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Al-Duhail SC · On: A. Friakh · Off: A. Gamer
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al-Shabab · On: N. Al Battashi · Off: P. Doesburg
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Al-Duhail SC · On: M. Yazan · Off: A. Ali
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Al-Shabab · On: M. Al Mamari · Off: H. Al Shahri
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Al-Duhail SC 3–0 Al-Shabab
78′77′ and it is 3–0: Al-Duhail SC have scored. 3–0 · 100–0–0
92′Al-Shabab find the net on 90′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 93' Al-Duhail SC 3–1 Al-Shabab
93′4 goals already, more than the 3.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
94′GOAL DISALLOWED · 94' Al-Shabab
FTFULL TIME Al-Duhail SC 3–0 Al-Shabab
FTAl-Duhail SC 3–0 Al-Shabab · Al-Duhail SC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Al-Duhail SC v Al-ShababBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 15:02 · locked at kick-off

Al-Duhail SC win88%

Draw9%

Al-Shabab win4%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 15:45

VenueAbdullah bin Khalifa Stadium

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Duhail SC

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Zakaria

5 B. Al Rawi

27 A. Gamer

21 J. Castelletto

30 A. Doumbouya

37 Z. Fadi

24 B. Soumare

11 T. Jamshid

8 M. Shanan

19 A. Ali

9 K. Piatek

Coach · Djamel Belmadi

Substitutes

22 · A. Osman

26 · F. Younes

7 · S. Yansane

18 · S. Al Brake

23 · A. O. Madibo

36 · A. Friakh

44 · O. Gamal Gad

76 · M. Yazan

97 · A. Belmadi

Al-Shabab

Formation not confirmed

70 S. Al Ajmi

12 A. Al-Muqbali

4 K. Al Buraiki

5 J. Al Habsi

11 I. Khalfan

23 M. Musulin

3 M. Mabrook

18 H. Al Rushadi

7 H. Al Shahri

9 P. Doesburg

35 Y. Al Shabibi

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · Y. Al Mushaifri

6 · Y. Al Sheyadi

8 · B. Al Balushi

10 · M. Al Mamari

20 · A. Al Yaqoubi

21 · N. Al Battashi

22 · A. Al Badri

28 · M. Al Khusaibi

33 · K. Bonsu

67 · B. Al Shein

77 · M. Al-Ghafri

87 · T. Al Badri

Our number · al-duhail sc winFirst published 13 Oct 00:00 · updated 14 Oct 15:02 · locked at kick-off

88% The market71%

Us88%

~~Market~~71%

We make Al-Duhail SC a 88% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.3–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Duhail SC v Al-Shabab~~3.28 – 0.60

~~The market · Al-Duhail SC win~~71% · ours 88%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al-duhail sc win The market, margin stripped

Published at 87%, 88% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Duhail SC win	88%	71%	+16
Draw	9%	19%	−10
Al-Shabab win	4%	10%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	74%	52%	+22
Both teams to score	43%	40%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	90%	74%	+16
Over 3.5 goals	54%	32%	+22
Al-Duhail SC or draw	96%	90%	+6
Al-Duhail SC clean sheet	55%	–	–
Al-Shabab clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 12.2%

0123450 2.2 1 6.6 4.2 2 11.1 6.6 3 12.2 7.3 2.2 4 10.0 6.0 5 6.6 3.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Duhail SC down, Al-Shabab across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Al-Duhail SC play in the Stars League, Al-Shabab in the Professional League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Al-Duhail SC are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

3.28 goals for Al-Duhail SC, 0.60 for Al-Shabab. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2024

No meetings between these two in AGCFF Gulf Champions League since 2024. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in AGCFF Gulf Champions League

AL-DUHAIL SC

No matches in our record yet.

AL-SHABAB

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NEOM	1	+4	3
2	Al Nasr	1	+3	3
3	Al Zawra'a	1	0	1
4	Qatar SC	1	0	1
5	Al Riffa	1	−3	0
6	Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut	1	−4	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Al-Duhail SC v Al-Shabab

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Al-Duhail SC

Al-Shabab

Rest & schedule

Al-Duhail SC

Al-Shabab

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Al-Duhail SC

Al-Shabab

Match statistics

Line-ups

Al-Duhail SC

Al-Shabab

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in AGCFF Gulf Champions League

The table