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Model 1.1

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Ajman v Erbil

Ajman
5–4Full time
Erbil

AGCFF Gulf Champions League · WED 14 OCT · Ajman Stadium

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 19:45
Ajman 5–4 Erbil AJMAN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Ajman win56%
The market said56%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.291
The market’s Brier score0.295

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay28 notes · 60 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ajman win at 56%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Ajman 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–21
  3. 14′14′ and it is 0–1: Erbil have scored. 0–1 · 28–25–47
  4. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Ajman win: 56% at kick-off, 28% now
  5. 14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Erbil win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Ajman win 28%)
  6. 15′We said Ajman at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–26–47
  7. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Ajman 1–1 Erbil
  8. 20′Ajman find the net on 19′. 1–1. 1–1 · 52–27–21
  9. 20′A goal for Erbil on 20′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 26–26–48
  10. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Ajman win: 56% at kick-off, 52% now
  11. 20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Ajman win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Erbil win 21%)
  12. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Ajman 1–2 Erbil
  13. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Ajman win: 56% at kick-off, 26% now
  14. 21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Erbil win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Ajman win 26%)
  15. 25′We said Ajman at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–26–49
  16. 26′25′ and it is 1–3: Erbil have scored. 1–3 · 9–15–76
  17. 26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Ajman 1–3 Erbil
  18. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Ajman win: 56% at kick-off, 9% now
  19. 27′We said Ajman at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–3 · 8–15–77
  20. 29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Erbil
  21. 30′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 8–15–78
  22. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' A. Jamous · Erbil
  23. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Ajman win: 56% at kick-off, 6% now
  24. 38′Ajman find the net on 38′. 2–3. 2–3 · 19–27–53
  25. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Ajman 2–3 Erbil
  26. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Ajman win: 56% at kick-off, 19% now
  27. 39′We said Ajman at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–3 · 19–27–54
  28. 40′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 18–27–54
  29. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Ajman
  30. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ajman win: 56% at kick-off, 16% now
  31. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' W. Azaro · Ajman
  32. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 47' Ajman · On: B. Yousif · Off: Jobson
  33. 45′HALF-TIME Ajman 2–3 Erbil
  34. 46′SECOND HALF Ajman 2–3 Erbil
  35. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Erbil
  36. 49′We said Ajman at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–3 · 14–27–58
  37. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ajman · On: M. Nasser · Off: S. Suliman
  38. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 46' I. Eze · Erbil
  39. 60′A goal for Ajman on 60′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 36–47–17
  40. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Ajman 3–3 Erbil
  41. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Ajman win: 56% at kick-off, 36% now
  42. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Erbil win 17%)
  43. 61′We said Ajman at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 3–3 · 35–48–17
  44. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Ajman · On: Vitor Vargas · Off: Y. Jabri
  45. 62′We said Ajman at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 3–3 · 34–49–17
  46. 63′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 34–50–17
  47. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Erbil · On: M. Qabeel · Off: A. Hzair
  48. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Erbil · On: M. Khalid Kofi · Off: C. John
  49. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 29' A. Jamous · Erbil
  50. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 45' W. Azaro · Ajman
  51. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 47' Ajman · On: B. Yousif · Off: Jobson
  52. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ajman · On: M. Nasser · Off: S. Suliman
  53. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 46' I. Eze · Erbil
  54. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Ajman · On: Vitor Vargas · Off: Y. Jabri
  55. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Erbil · On: M. Qabeel · Off: A. Hzair
  56. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Erbil · On: M. Khalid Kofi · Off: C. John
  57. 68′67′ and it is 3–4: Erbil have scored. 3–4 · 6–24–70
  58. 68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Ajman 3–4 Erbil
  59. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Ajman win: 56% at kick-off, 6% now
  60. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Erbil win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 24%)
  61. 69′7 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–4 · 6–23–71
  62. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Erbil · On: A. Raad · Off: M. Walid
  63. 70′Ajman find the net on 69′. 4–4. 4–4 · 28–58–14
  64. 70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Ajman 4–4 Erbil
  65. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Ajman win: 56% at kick-off, 28% now
  66. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Erbil win 14%)
  67. 72′We said Ajman at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 4–4 · 26–61–13
  68. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Ajman win: 56% at kick-off, 26% now
  69. 73′That is 8, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 4–4 · 25–62–13
  70. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Erbil
  71. 74′We said Ajman at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 4–4 · 24–64–12
  72. 75′A goal for Ajman on 74′ — 5–4. 5–4 · 88–11–1
  73. 75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Ajman 5–4 Erbil
  74. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Ajman win: 56% at kick-off, 88% now
  75. 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Ajman win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
  76. 76′We said Ajman at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 5–4 · 89–11–1
  77. 77′9 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 5–4 · 89–10–1
  78. 78′We said Ajman at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 5–4 · 90–10–1
  79. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Miullen · Erbil
  80. 85′We said Ajman at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 5–4 · 95–5–0
  81. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Erbil · On: O. Jengi · Off: N. Mohammed
  82. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Erbil · On: I. Mihrab · Off: Miullen
  83. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Ajman · On: Lithierry · Off: S. Hadani
  84. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Ajman win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
  85. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Ajman
  86. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 97' Ajman
  87. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 97' B. Yousif · Ajman
  88. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Ajman · On: M. Jumaa · Off: Lourency
  89. FTFULL TIME Ajman 5–4 Erbil
  90. FTAjman 5–4 Erbil · Ajman win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Ajman v ErbilBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off

Ajman win56%
Draw23%
Erbil win21%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 17:00

VenueAjman Stadium

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ajman

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Al Hosani

4 S. Suliman

5 G. Zajkov

44 Yuri Matias

31 Y. Jabri

8 Jobson

18 I. Moumen

99 V. Henrique

48 S. Hadani

7 Lourency

9 W. Azaro

Coach · Goran Tufegdzic

Substitutes

40 · I. Al Tamimi

2 · A. Rakan

3 · A. Al Junaibi

12 · M. Nasser

14 · F. Ben Njima

22 · Vitor Vargas

23 · A. Sulaiman

26 · B. Yousif

6 · Victor Hugo

10 · M. Jumaa

11 · A. Abdelaziz

33 · Lithierry

Erbil

Formation not confirmed

22 H. Hassan

14 A. Shebar

4 S. Olberkis

5 N. Mohammed

68 M. Walid

6 A. Hzair

15 M. Al Taay

77 I. Eze

8 A. Jamous

13 C. John

9 Miullen

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · W. Ali

21 · S. Muhsin

2 · A. Raad

3 · O. Jengi

24 · H. Matrook

18 · B. Mahdi

19 · I. Mihrab

88 · A. Sadeq Mahmoud

7 · M. Qabeel

17 · S. Mansor

99 · M. Khalid Kofi

Our number · ajman winFirst published 13 Oct 00:00 · updated 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off
56% The market56%
Us56%
Market56%

We make Ajman a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ajman v Erbil1.84 – 1.03
The market · Ajman win56% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 13 OCT 00:1614 OCT 16:21
Our probability · ajman win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ajman win56%56%0
Draw23%24%−1
Erbil win21%20%+1
Over 2.5 goals55%53%+2
Both teams to score55%52%+2
Over 1.5 goals79%74%+4
Over 3.5 goals32%33%0
Ajman or draw79%80%−1
Ajman clean sheet36%––
Erbil clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%
0123450 6.0 5.5 3.0 1 10.0 11.1 5.5 2 9.6 9.9 5.1 3 5.9 6.1 3.1 4 2.7 2.8 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ajman down, Erbil across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2024

No meetings between these two in AGCFF Gulf Champions League since 2024. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in AGCFF Gulf Champions League

AJMAN

No matches in our record yet.

ERBIL

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1NEOM1+43
2Al Nasr1+33
3Al Zawra'a101
4Qatar SC101
5Al Riffa1−30
6Al Sha'ab Hadhramaut1−40

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.