Wofoo Tai Po v Home United prediction · AFC Champions League Two

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 14:00

Wofoo Tai Po 0–1 Home United HOME UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Home United win~~62%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.216

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.153

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Home United win at 62%.
1′Much as we predicted: Home United was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 17–21–62
1′KICK-OFF Wofoo Tai Po v Home United
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Home United win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
41′We said Home United at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 50%. 0–0 · 18–32–50
42′7 shots for Home United, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 18–32–50
43′We said Home United at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 18–33–49
45′HALF-TIME Wofoo Tai Po 0–0 Home United
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Home United · On: Kyoga Nakamura · Off: Song Ui-young
46′SECOND HALF Wofoo Tai Po 0–0 Home United
49′We published Home United at 62%. Our model now makes it 83%. 0–1 · 3–14–83
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Wofoo Tai Po 0–1 Home United
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Home United win: 62% at kick-off, 83% now
51′Toni Datković scores for Home United on 48′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 3–14–83
62′We published Home United at 62%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Wofoo Tai Po · On: Wallisson Bahia · Off: Chan Siu-Kwan Philip
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Wofoo Tai Po · On: Paulinho Simionato · Off: Emilio Estevez Tsai
67′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Paulinho Simionato · Wofoo Tai Po
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Home United · On: Hariss Harun · Off: Hugo Gomes
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Home United · On: Antonio Mance · Off: Ilhan Fandi
77′We published Home United at 62%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
78′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Diogo Costa · Home United
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Home United win: 62% at kick-off, 92% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Wofoo Tai Po · On: Murilo Gabriel · Off: Sim Seung-Hyeon
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Wofoo Tai Po · On: Nando Welter · Off: Marquinhos
85′We published Home United at 62%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Home United · On: Ryhan Stewart · Off: Jorge Karse
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Home United · On: Hami Syahin · Off: Matthias·Phaeton
FTFULL TIME Wofoo Tai Po 0–1 Home United
FTWofoo Tai Po 0–1 Home United · Home United win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Home United are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wofoo Tai Po 17%, draw 21%, Home United 62%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Wofoo Tai Po v Home UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Wofoo Tai Po win17%

Draw21%

Home United win62%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup stage · matchday 2

VenueMong Kok Stadium

Line-ups

Wofoo Tai Po

4-4-2

Home United

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wofoo Tai Po

Home United

5Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Home United	1	0	1
4	Wofoo Tai Po	1	−3	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Wofoo Tai Po

4-4-2

94 Tse Ka Wing

26 Lee Ka Ho

33 Gabriel Moreira

4 Léo Rigo

44 Weverton Rangel Ribeiro

13 S. Sim

20 Wong Hin Sum

10 Fernando

23 Emilio Estevez Tsai

16 Chan Siu Kwan

97 Marquinhos

Coach · Lee Chi-Kin

Substitutes

6 · Chan Hoi Pak Paco

12 · Gérson

25 · Murilo Gabriel

8 · Nando Welter

9 · Paulinho Simionato

79 · Wallisson Bahia

7 · Chang Hei Yin

1 · S. Lo

28 · Wong Sum-Chit Sherman

Home United

5-4-1

1 Victor Aznar

2 Jorge Karse

3 Hugo Gomes

26 B. Wright

4 T. Datković

29 Diogo Costa

23 M. Phaëton

15 Song Ui-Young

24 G. Haag

10 B. Ramselaar

17 Ilhan Fandi

Coach · M. Jackson

Substitutes

8 · K. Nakamura

18 · R. Stewart

25 · I. Sušak

16 · H. Syahin

5 · L. Tan

19 · F. Zulkifli

11 · G. Kweh

14 · H. Harun

22 · M. Asis

7 · S. Anuar

12 · A. Mance

Our number · home united winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 12 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

62% The market68%

Us62%

~~Market~~68%

We make Home United a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wofoo Tai Po v Home United~~1.00 – 2.09

~~Form · AFC Champions League Two this season · since 17 Sept~~W0 D0 L1 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 1~~4 v 2

~~The market · Home United win~~68% · ours 62%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · home united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wofoo Tai Po win	17%	13%	+4
Draw	21%	19%	+2
Home United win	62%	68%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	60%	64%	−4
Both teams to score	56%	56%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	45%	−8
Wofoo Tai Po or draw	38%	32%	+6
Wofoo Tai Po clean sheet	12%	–	–
Home United clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.9%

0123450 4.8 9.1 9.9 6.9 3.6 1 4.2 9.8 9.9 6.9 3.6 2 2.3 4.8 5.0 3.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wofoo Tai Po down, Home United across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 406,727 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Wofoo Tai Po play in Premier League (Hong Kong), Home United in Premier League (Singapore).

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Wofoo Tai Po are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Wofoo Tai Po, 2.09 for Home United. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Two this season · since 17 Sept

WOFOO TAI PO

L0–3

HOME UNITED

D1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Adelaide United	1	+3	3
2	Home United	1	0	1
3	BG Pathum United	1	0	1
4	Wofoo Tai Po	1	−3	0

The competition's standings before kick-off.

Wofoo Tai Po v Home United

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Wofoo Tai Po

Home United

Rest & schedule

Wofoo Tai Po

Home United

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

Wofoo Tai Po

Home United

Match statistics

Line-ups

Wofoo Tai Po

Home United

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · AFC Champions League Two this season · since 17 Sept

The table