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Tampines Rovers v Machida Zelvia

Tampines Rovers
0–1Full time
Machida Zelvia

AFC Champions League Two · THU 15 OCT · Jalan Besar Stadium

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 16:01
Tampines Rovers 0–1 Machida Zelvia MACHIDA ZELVIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Machida Zelvia win74%
The market said70%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.106
The market’s Brier score0.135

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Machida Zelvia win at 74%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Machida Zelvia was 74% before kick-off and our model makes it 74% now. 0–0 · 9–17–74
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Tampines Rovers v Machida Zelvia
  4. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Machida Zelvia win: 74% at kick-off, 64% now
  5. 35′We said Machida Zelvia at 74%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 62%. 0–0 · 11–27–62
  6. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Koya Kazama · Tampines Rovers
  7. 41′We said Machida Zelvia at 74%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 11–30–59
  8. 45′7 shots for Machida Zelvia, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 11–32–57
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Tampines Rovers 0–0 Machida Zelvia
  10. 45′SECOND HALF Tampines Rovers 0–0 Machida Zelvia
  11. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Machida Zelvia · On: Takahiro Akimoto · Off: Daihachi Okamura
  12. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Machida Zelvia · On: Yuki Soma · Off: Futa Tokumura
  13. 50′We said Machida Zelvia at 74%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 11–35–54
  14. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Machida Zelvia win: 74% at kick-off, 54% now
  15. 56′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 11–40–50
  16. 56′Machida Zelvia have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 11–40–50
  17. 58′We said Machida Zelvia at 74%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 11–42–48
  18. 62′We said Machida Zelvia at 74%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 10–45–44
  19. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Machida Zelvia win: 74% at kick-off, 44% now
  20. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Machida Zelvia win 43%)
  21. 67′We said Machida Zelvia at 74%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 9–51–39
  22. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tampines Rovers · On: Kenshin Yamazaki · Off: Nabel Yoshitaka Furusawa
  23. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Machida Zelvia · On: Koki Ogawa · Off: Mitchell Duke
  24. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Machida Zelvia · On: Henry Heroki Mochizuki · Off: Hotaka Nakamura
  25. 72′We said Machida Zelvia at 74%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 8–58–33
  26. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Machida Zelvia win: 74% at kick-off, 33% now
  27. 75′We said Machida Zelvia at 74%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 8–63–29
  28. 79′We said Machida Zelvia at 74%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 6–71–23
  29. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Machida Zelvia win: 74% at kick-off, 23% now
  30. 80′Machida Zelvia have had 12 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 6–73–21
  31. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Machida Zelvia · On: Tete Yengi · Off: Takuma Nishimura
  32. 82′We said Machida Zelvia at 74%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 5–77–18
  33. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Tampines Rovers · On: Faris Ramli · Off: Koya Kazama
  34. 84′We said Machida Zelvia at 74%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 4–82–14
  35. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Machida Zelvia win: 74% at kick-off, 14% now
  36. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Hokuto Shimoda · Machida Zelvia
  37. 88′Machida Zelvia have had 16 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 3–88–10
  38. 89′We said Machida Zelvia at 74%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 2–89–8
  39. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Machida Zelvia win: 74% at kick-off, 4% now
  40. 94′We said Machida Zelvia at 74%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–0 · 1–97–3
  41. FTFULL TIME Tampines Rovers 0–1 Machida Zelvia
  42. FTTampines Rovers 0–1 Machida Zelvia · Machida Zelvia win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Machida Zelvia are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tampines Rovers 9%, draw 17%, Machida Zelvia 74%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Tampines Rovers v Machida ZelviaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Tampines Rovers win9%
Draw17%
Machida Zelvia win74%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 13:15

RoundGroup stage · matchday 2

VenueJalan Besar Stadium

Line-ups

Tampines Rovers

5-4-1

Machida Zelvia

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tampines Rovers

Machida Zelvia

4Days since last match5
2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Machida Zelvia1+23
3Tampines Rovers1−10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tampines Rovers

5-4-1

24 S. Buhari

26 T. Yoshimoto

6 J. Mahler

71 Irfan Fandi

33 S. Sumi

11 S. Yokoyama

25 H. Higashikawa

49 Y. Kobayashi

8 S. Shahiran

88 K. Kazama

9 Y. Furusawa

Coach · N. Nasir

Substitutes

23 · I. Najeeb

52 · Jarec Ng

81 · Y. Kimura

5 · A. Adli

17 · A. Haikal

16 · D. Fox

10 · F. Ramli

28 · Z. Rohaizad

2 · R. Suhaimi

18 · K. Yamazaki

Machida Zelvia

3-4-2-1

13 T. Morita

24 Kim Min-Tae

50 D. Okamura

5 I. Drešević

88 H. Nakamura

23 R. Shirasaki

18 H. Shimoda

34 Futa Tokumura

20 T. Nishimura

8 K. Sento

15 M. Duke

Coach · G. Kuroda

Substitutes

33 · T. Akimoto

89 · N. Guimaraes

31 · N. Lavi

16 · H. Mae

6 · H. Mochizuki

9 · Koki Ogawa

3 · G. Shōji

7 · Y. Soma

1 · K. Tani

99 · T. Yengi

Our number · machida zelvia winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 00:28 · locked at kick-off
74% The market70%
Us74%
Market70%

We make Machida Zelvia a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–2.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Tampines Rovers v Machida Zelvia0.69 – 2.33
Form · AFC Champions League Two this season · since 17 SeptW0 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L0
Table places · points 0 v 33 v 1
The market · Machida Zelvia win70% · ours 74%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75% 9 OCT 07:2615 OCT 13:04
Our probability · machida zelvia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Tampines Rovers win9%11%−2
Draw17%19%−2
Machida Zelvia win74%70%+3
Over 2.5 goals58%58%0
Both teams to score45%48%−3
Over 1.5 goals81%80%+1
Over 3.5 goals36%39%−4
Tampines Rovers or draw26%30%−3
Tampines Rovers clean sheet10%––
Machida Zelvia clean sheet50%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 13.2%
0123450 5.1 11.1 13.2 10.2 6.0 2.81 3.1 8.1 9.2 7.1 4.1 2 2.7 3.2 2.5 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Tampines Rovers down, Machida Zelvia across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Two this season · since 17 Sept

TAMPINES ROVERS

L1–2

MACHIDA ZELVIA

W2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Machida Zelvia1+23
2Shanghai Shenhua1+13
3Tampines Rovers1−10
4Svay Rieng1−20

The competition's standings before kick-off.