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Svay Rieng v Shanghai Shenhua

Svay Rieng
0–0Full time
Shanghai Shenhua

AFC Champions League Two · THU 15 OCT · Morodok Techo National Stadium

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 16:01
Svay Rieng 0–0 Shanghai Shenhua SHANGHAI SHENHUA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Shanghai Shenhua win50%
The market said56%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.942
The market’s Brier score0.945

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Shanghai Shenhua win at 50%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Shanghai Shenhua 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 28–21–50
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Svay Rieng v Shanghai Shenhua
  4. 10′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Svay Rieng
  5. 14′SUBSTITUTION · 12' Shanghai Shenhua · On: Xie Pengfei · Off: Luis Asue
  6. 39′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Shanghai Shenhua · On: Rafael Ratão · Off: Liu Chengyu
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Svay Rieng 0–0 Shanghai Shenhua
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Svay Rieng 0–0 Shanghai Shenhua
  9. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Shanghai Shenhua win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
  10. 53′We said Shanghai Shenhua at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 25–37–38
  11. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 25–38–37
  12. 56′Svay Rieng have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 24–39–37
  13. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Visal Soeuy · Svay Rieng
  14. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Svay Rieng · On: Breninho · Off: Visal Soeuy
  15. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Shanghai Shenhua win 35%)
  16. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Shanghai Shenhua · On: Wilson Manafá · Off: Yang Zexiang
  17. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Shanghai Shenhua · On: João Teixeira · Off: Wang Haijian
  18. 61′We said Shanghai Shenhua at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 23–43–34
  19. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Jin Shunkai · Shanghai Shenhua
  20. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Shanghai Shenhua win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
  21. 69′We said Shanghai Shenhua at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 20–51–29
  22. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Johannes Tartarotti · Svay Rieng
  23. 71′12 shots for Svay Rieng, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 19–54–27
  24. 75′We said Shanghai Shenhua at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 17–60–24
  25. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Svay Rieng · On: Sosidan Nhean · Off: Sylvester van de Water
  26. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Svay Rieng · On: Martins Júnior · Off: Johannes Tartarotti
  27. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Svay Rieng · On: Mateus Barbosa · Off: Tiago Alves
  28. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Shanghai Shenhua · On: Han Jiawen · Off: Wu Xi
  29. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Shanghai Shenhua · On: Yang Haoyu · Off: Xu Haoyang
  30. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Shanghai Shenhua win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
  31. 79′We said Shanghai Shenhua at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 13–68–19
  32. 83′We said Shanghai Shenhua at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 10–77–13
  33. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Mateus Barbosa · Svay Rieng
  34. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Wilson Manafá · Shanghai Shenhua
  35. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Shanghai Shenhua win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
  36. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Svay Rieng · On: Ratanak Min · Off: Connor Shields
  37. 87′We said Shanghai Shenhua at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 7–84–9
  38. 90′16 shots for Svay Rieng, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 5–89–6
  39. 92′We said Shanghai Shenhua at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–92–4
  40. FTFULL TIME Svay Rieng 0–0 Shanghai Shenhua
  41. FTSvay Rieng 0–0 Shanghai Shenhua · Shanghai Shenhua win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shanghai Shenhua are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Svay Rieng 28%, draw 22%, Shanghai Shenhua 50%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Svay Rieng v Shanghai ShenhuaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Svay Rieng win28%
Draw22%
Shanghai Shenhua win50%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 13:15

RoundGroup stage · matchday 2

VenueMorodok Techo National Stadium

RefereeAli Al-Achkar

Line-ups

Svay Rieng

4-2-3-1

Shanghai Shenhua

4-3-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Svay Rieng

Shanghai Shenhua

7Days since last match5
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Shanghai Shenhua1+13
4Svay Rieng1−20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Svay Rieng

4-2-3-1

27 Vireak Dara

4 F. Hammouti

61 Takashi Odawara

5 Soeuy Visal

3 T. Ose

6 Rui Pires

97 Connor Shields

96 Sylvester van de Water

37 J. Tartarotti

7 Tiago Alves

46 Kwame Peprah

Coach · Matthew McConkey

Substitutes

8 · Breno Caetano

2 · Barbosa

35 · D. Sophal

30 · Ofufu Ibeh

28 · R. Fujii

25 · Chou Sinti

21 · Juninho Maranhense

18 · Aim Sovannarath

11 · Min Ratanak

10 · Nhean Sosidan

9 · Sieng Chanthea

1 · Hankhun Sang

Shanghai Shenhua

4-3-1-2

24 Ma Zhen

16 Yang Zexiang

3 Jin Shunkai

26 Yang Shuai

27 Chan Shinichi

17 Gao Tianyi

33 Wang Haijian

15 Wu Xi

21 Xu Haoyang

19 Luís Asué

18 Liu Chengyu

Coach · V. Milojević

Substitutes

1 · Xue Qinghao

2 · Wang Shilong

4 · Jiang Shenglong

5 · Zhu Chenjie

9 · Rafael Ratão

10 · João Teixeira

13 · Wilson Manafá

30 · Xie Pengfei

38 · Wu Qipeng

43 · Yang Haoyu

45 · Han Jiawen

50 · Jiang Zhicheng

Our number · shanghai shenhua winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 00:28 · locked at kick-off
50% The market56%
Us50%
Market56%

We make Shanghai Shenhua a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Svay Rieng v Shanghai Shenhua1.52 – 2.07
Form · AFC Champions League Two this season · since 17 SeptW0 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L0
Table places · points 0 v 34 v 2
The market · Shanghai Shenhua win56% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%50%60%70% 9 OCT 07:2615 OCT 13:04
Our probability · shanghai shenhua win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Svay Rieng win28%20%+8
Draw22%23%−2
Shanghai Shenhua win50%56%−6
Over 2.5 goals70%59%+10
Both teams to score69%59%+10
Over 1.5 goals88%80%+7
Over 3.5 goals48%39%+9
Svay Rieng or draw50%44%+6
Svay Rieng clean sheet13%––
Shanghai Shenhua clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.0%
0123450 3.0 5.4 5.9 4.1 2.1 1 3.9 9.0 9.0 6.2 3.2 2 3.2 6.6 6.8 4.7 2.4 3 3.4 3.5 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Svay Rieng down, Shanghai Shenhua across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Two this season · since 17 Sept

SVAY RIENG

L0–2

SHANGHAI SHENHUA

W2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Machida Zelvia1+23
2Shanghai Shenhua1+13
3Tampines Rovers1−10
4Svay Rieng1−20

The competition's standings before kick-off.