Phnom Penh Crown v Kitchee prediction · AFC Champions League Two

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Phnom Penh CrownDrawKitchee

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Phnom Penh Crown 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Phnom Penh Crown are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Phnom Penh Crown 59%, draw 21%, Kitchee 20%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Phnom Penh Crown v KitcheeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Phnom Penh Crown win59%

Draw21%

Kitchee win20%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 12:15

RoundGroup stage · matchday 3

VenueRSN Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Phnom Penh Crown

Kitchee

5Days since last match5

Last match: 24 Oct · C-League

Last match: 24 Oct · Senior Shield

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · phnom penh crown winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Phnom Penh Crown a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Phnom Penh Crown v Kitchee~~2.13 – 1.18

~~Form · AFC Champions League Two this season · since 17 Sept~~W2 D0 L0 · W0 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 2~~1 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Phnom Penh Crown win	59%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Kitchee win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Phnom Penh Crown or draw	80%	–	–
Phnom Penh Crown clean sheet	31%	–	–
Kitchee clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.0 4.0 2.5 1 7.5 9.5 5.4 2.1 2 8.3 9.8 5.7 2.3 3 5.9 7.0 4.1 4 3.2 3.7 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Phnom Penh Crown down, Kitchee across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 409,754 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 24 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Phnom Penh Crown play in C-League, Kitchee in Premier League (Hong Kong).

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Phnom Penh Crown are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

2.13 goals for Phnom Penh Crown, 1.18 for Kitchee. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Two this season · since 17 Sept

PHNOM PENH CROWN

WW2–1 · 2–1

KITCHEE

DD0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27 · Group H

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Phnom Penh Crown	2	+2	6
2	Kitchee	2	0	2
3	Kuching FA	2	−1	1
4	Gangwon FC	2	−1	1

The competition's standings before kick-off.

Phnom Penh Crown v Kitchee

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Phnom Penh Crown

Kitchee

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · AFC Champions League Two this season · since 17 Sept

The table