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Nasaf v Al Wahda FC

Nasaf
1–2Full time
Al Wahda FC

AFC Champions League Two · WED 14 OCT · Markaziy Stadium Qarshi

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 17:24
Nasaf 1–2 Al Wahda FC AL WAHDA FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al Wahda FC win35%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.633
The market’s Brier score0.482

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Wahda FC win at 35%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Nasaf 35% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 35–29–35
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Nasaf v Al Wahda FC
  4. 13′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Nasaf
  5. 14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Golib Gaybullaev · Nasaf
  6. 22′Al Wahda FC level it on 23′ through Facundo Kruspzky. 0–0. 0–0 · 33–34–33
  7. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Nasaf 0–1 Al Wahda FC · Facundo Kruspzky
  8. 24′We said Nasaf at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–22–68
  9. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Al Wahda FC win: 35% at kick-off, 68% now
  10. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Al Wahda FC win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Nasaf win 11%)
  11. 29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Oybek Rustamov · Nasaf
  12. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 10–22–69
  13. 31′We said Nasaf at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
  14. 38′Facundo Kruspzky scores for Al Wahda FC on 39′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–22–70
  15. 39′We said Nasaf at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
  16. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Nasaf 0–2 Al Wahda FC · Facundo Kruspzky
  17. 39′PENALTY MISSED · 38' Abduvohid Nematov · Nasaf
  18. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Al Wahda FC win: 35% at kick-off, 92% now
  19. 40′Nasaf have had 9.0 attempts to 3.0 and it is still 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–92
  20. 45′SECOND HALF Nasaf 0–2 Al Wahda FC
  21. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Nasaf · On: Sardorbek Bakhromov · Off: Oybek Rustamov
  22. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Nasaf · On: Bobur Abdikholikov · Off: Yusuf Otubanjo
  23. 47′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 6–21–73
  24. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Nasaf 1–2 Al Wahda FC
  25. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Al Wahda FC win: 35% at kick-off, 73% now
  26. 48′47′ and it is 1–2: Bobur Abdikholikov on the scoresheet for Nasaf. 1–2 · 6–21–73
  27. 49′12.0 shots for Nasaf, 4.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–2 · 6–21–73
  28. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Al Wahda FC win: 35% at kick-off, 75% now
  29. 67′16.0 shots for Nasaf, 4.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–2 · 3–17–81
  30. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Al Wahda FC · On: Asher Agbinone · Off: Brahima Diarra
  31. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Nasaf · On: Paata Ghudushauri · Off: Abbos Gulomov
  32. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Nasaf · On: Dilshod Murtozoev · Off: Alibek Davronov
  33. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Nasaf · On: Diyorbek Abdunazarov · Off: Zafarmurod Abdurakhmatov
  34. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Al Wahda FC win: 35% at kick-off, 85% now
  35. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Jadson · Al Wahda FC
  36. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al Wahda FC · On: Favour Inyeka Ogbu · Off: Facundo Kruspzky
  37. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al Wahda FC · On: Gonalo Moura Oliveira · Off: Mansour Saleh Burghash
  38. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Paata Ghudushauri · Nasaf
  39. 86′Nasaf have had 21.0 attempts to 6.0 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–94
  40. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Al Wahda FC win: 35% at kick-off, 95% now
  41. FTFULL TIME Nasaf 1–2 Al Wahda FC
  42. FTNasaf 1–2 Al Wahda FC · Al Wahda FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Nasaf v Al Wahda FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 14:19 · locked at kick-off

Nasaf win35%
Draw30%
Al Wahda FC win35%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 14:45

VenueMarkaziy Stadium Qarshi

Line-ups

Nasaf

3-4-2-1

Al Wahda FC

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Nasaf

Al Wahda FC

28Days since last match28
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Al Wahda FC113
2Nasaf101

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Nasaf

3-4-2-1

1 A. Ne'matov

5 G. G'aybullaev

92 U. Eshmurodov

2 A. Davronov

8 Z. Abdurahmatov

17 M. Rahmatov

15 O. Rustamov

14 S. Muhitdinov

70 A. Gulomov

7 A. Shala

20 Y. Otubanjo

Coach · Ruzikul Berdiev

Substitutes

23 · D. Murtazoyev

10 · B. Abdukholikov

22 · D. Abdunazarov

6 · Sardorbek Bakhromov

32 · Kuvonchbek Khushvaktov

4 · A. Komilov

21 · Samandar Muratbaev

76 · Zafar Sadullayev

82 · Asilbek Numonov

77 · P. Ghudushauri

27 · Yashnarbek Berdirahmonov

3 · Mashkhurbek Abdisoliev

Al Wahda FC

4-1-4-1

23 F. Lirussi

2 Mansour Saleh Barghash Jaralla Al Menhali

3 Lucas Pimenta

6 M. Ghorbani

35 A. Majhed

25 Jadsom Silva

94 B. Diarra

12 Abdulla Hamad

8 A. Čerin

11 F. Kruspzky

20 C. Benteke

Coach · Péricles Chamusca

Substitutes

80 · Abdulqader Abdullah

66 · G. Suárez

7 · Caio Canedo

26 · Hazaa Ammar

32 · Gonçalo Moura Oliveira

30 · F. Ogbu

38 · Arnau Pradas

13 · Haza Shehab

19 · A. Agbinone

97 · Sam Mark Koffie

93 · James Mathis Wesley Chattuais Abada

15 · M. Dehghan

Our number · al wahda fc winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 14:19 · locked at kick-off
35% The market43%
Us35%
Market43%

We make Al Wahda FC a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Nasaf v Al Wahda FC1.11 – 1.11
Last six in AFC Champions League TwoW1 D1 L4 · W1 D0 L0
Table places · points 1 v 32 v 1
The market · Al Wahda FC win43% · ours 35%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 9 OCT 06:2114 OCT 13:48
Our probability · al wahda fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Nasaf win35%29%+6
Draw30%28%+2
Al Wahda FC win35%43%−8
Over 2.5 goals38%49%−11
Both teams to score45%54%−8
Over 1.5 goals65%72%−6
Over 3.5 goals18%29%−10
Nasaf or draw65%57%+8
Nasaf clean sheet33%––
Al Wahda FC clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%
0123450 11.3 11.7 6.7 2.5 1 11.6 13.8 7.4 2.7 2 6.7 7.4 4.1 3 2.5 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Nasaf down, Al Wahda FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in AFC Champions League Two since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in AFC Champions League Two

NASAF

WLLLLD2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–0

AL WAHDA FC

W3–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Al Wahda FC113
2Nasaf101
3Khalidiya101
4Al Kuwait1-10

The competition's standings.