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Melbourne Victory v FC Seoul

Melbourne Victory
3–0Full time
FC Seoul

AFC Champions League Two · WED 14 OCT · AAMI Park

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 11:31
Melbourne Victory 3–0 FC Seoul MELBOURNE VICTORY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Melbourne Victory win41%
The market said62%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.521
The market’s Brier score0.215

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Melbourne Victory win at 41%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Melbourne Victory was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–31
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Melbourne Victory v FC Seoul
  4. 34′Melbourne Victory have had 8.0 attempts to 0.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 36–36–28
  5. 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Melbourne Victory win 34%)
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Melbourne Victory 0–0 FC Seoul
  7. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Seoul · On: Jung Ha-won · Off: Min-Jun Kim Corrected
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Melbourne Victory 0–0 FC Seoul
  9. 50′13.0 shots for Melbourne Victory, 2.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 31–44–25
  10. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Melbourne Victory win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
  11. 54′We said Melbourne Victory at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–47–24
  12. 54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' FC Seoul · On: Jeong Hyeon-ung · Off: Seloh Samuel Gbato Corrected
  13. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' FC Seoul · On: Park Seong-Hun · Off: Lee Sang-min
  14. 56′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 29–48–23
  15. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Melbourne Victory · On: Michael Ghossaini · Off: Harrison Sawyer Corrected
  16. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Melbourne Victory · On: Clarismario Santos Rodrigues · Off: Matthew Grimaldi Corrected
  17. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Melbourne Victory 1–0 FC Seoul
  18. 65′63′ and it is 1–0: Guillermo May on the scoresheet for Melbourne Victory. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  19. 65′We published Melbourne Victory at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  20. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Melbourne Victory win: 41% at kick-off, 80% now
  21. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Melbourne Victory win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
  22. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Melbourne Victory win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
  23. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Ahn Jae-min · FC Seoul
  24. 73′We published Melbourne Victory at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  25. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Melbourne Victory · On: Xavier Stella · Off: Keegan Jelacic Corrected
  26. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Melbourne Victory 2–0 FC Seoul · Guillermo May
  27. 74′We published Melbourne Victory at 41%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  28. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Melbourne Victory win: 41% at kick-off, 99% now
  29. 75′Melbourne Victory ahead on 73′ through Clarismario Santos Rodrigues. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  30. 76′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  31. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FC Seoul · On: Pil-Gwan Ko · Off: Park Jang Han-Gyeol Corrected
  32. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Melbourne Victory · On: Franco Lino · Off: Harrison Shillington Corrected
  33. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Melbourne Victory · On: Charles Nduka · Off: Guillermo May Corrected
  34. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Seoul · On: Ji-Seop Shin · Off: Jeong Hyeon-Woo Corrected
  35. 82′We published Melbourne Victory at 41%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  36. 84′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  37. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Melbourne Victory 3–0 FC Seoul · Clarismario Santos Rodrigues
  38. 85′Jordi Valadon scores for Melbourne Victory on 84′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  39. FTFULL TIME Melbourne Victory 3–0 FC Seoul
  40. FTMelbourne Victory 3–0 FC Seoul · Melbourne Victory win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Melbourne Victory v FC SeoulBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 08:01 · locked at kick-off

Melbourne Victory win41%
Draw28%
FC Seoul win31%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 08:45

VenueAAMI Park

Line-ups

Melbourne Victory

4-4-2

FC Seoul

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Melbourne Victory

FC Seoul

28Days since last match28
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Melbourne Victory101
4FC Seoul1-10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Melbourne Victory

4-4-2

25 J. Duncan

16 J. Inserra

4 P. Ziereis

5 B. Hamill

36 H. Shillington

14 M. Grimaldi

10 D. Genreau

8 J. Valadon

23 K. Jelacic

9 H. Sawyer

21 Guillermo May

Coach · G. Savarese

Substitutes

26 · Jack Mihailidis

3 · J. Davidson

19 · O. Dragicevic

29 · M. Ghossaini

15 · T. Lockyer

18 · F. Lino

44 · C. Nduka

24 · M. Olukhale

11 · Clarismario Rodrigues

28 · William Kengni

22 · X. Stella

1 · J. Warshawsky

FC Seoul

4-4-2

1 Lim Jun-Sub

17 Ahn Jae-Min

4 Lee Sang-Min

20 Lee Han-Do

66 Park Soo-Il

99 G. Samuel

88 Park Jang Han-Gyeol

24 Min-Jun Kim

14 Hyeon-Woo Jeong

19 Cheon Seong-Hoon

11 L. Ruiz

Coach · Kim Gi-Dong

Substitutes

71 · Yun Ki-Wook

40 · Park Seong-Hun

49 · Lee Hyun-Seo

23 · Ko Pil-gwan

36 · Ji-Won Kim

47 · Jeong Hyeon-ung

73 · Ji-Seop Shin

77 · Kim Kang-Jun

21 · Jung Ha-won

Our number · melbourne victory winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 08:01 · locked at kick-off
41% The market62%
Us41%
Market62%

We make Melbourne Victory a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 21 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Melbourne Victory v FC Seoul1.34 – 1.13
Last six in AFC Champions League TwoW0 D1 L0 · W0 D0 L1
Table places · points 1 v 03 v 4
The market · Melbourne Victory win62% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%50%60%70% 9 OCT 06:2114 OCT 04:58
Our probability · melbourne victory win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Melbourne Victory win41%62%−21
Draw28%21%+6
FC Seoul win31%16%+15
Over 2.5 goals45%58%−13
Both teams to score50%54%−4
Over 1.5 goals71%79%−7
Over 3.5 goals24%37%−14
Melbourne Victory or draw69%84%−15
Melbourne Victory clean sheet32%––
FC Seoul clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%
0123450 8.9 9.1 5.4 2.0 1 10.9 13.2 7.2 2.7 2 7.6 8.6 4.9 3 3.4 3.8 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Melbourne Victory down, FC Seoul across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in AFC Champions League Two since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in AFC Champions League Two

MELBOURNE VICTORY

D1–1

FC SEOUL

L0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Persib Bandung113
2Viettel101
3Melbourne Victory101
4FC Seoul1-10

The competition's standings.