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Kuching FA v Kitchee

Kuching FA
1–1Full time
Kitchee

AFC Champions League Two · THU 15 OCT · Stadium Taha Ariffin

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 16:01
Kuching FA 1–1 Kitchee KUCHING FA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Kuching FA win67%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.098
The market’s Brier score0.915

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Kuching FA win at 67%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Kuching FA 67% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–20–13
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Kuching FA v Kitchee
  4. 3′We said Kuching FA at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–4
  5. 3′Kuching FA score on 2′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–9–4
  6. 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Kuching FA 1–0 Kitchee
  7. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Kuching FA win: 67% at kick-off, 87% now
  8. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Kuching FA win: 67% at kick-off, 86% now
  9. 14′Kitchee level it on 14′ through Everton Camargo. 1–1. 1–1 · 64–23–14
  10. 14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Kuching FA 1–1 Kitchee · Everton Camargo
  11. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Kuching FA win: 67% at kick-off, 64% now
  12. 28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Ariff Farhan · Kuching FA
  13. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Kuching FA win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
  14. 37′We said Kuching FA at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 55%. 1–1 · 55–31–14
  15. 39′We said Kuching FA at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 54–32–14
  16. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Gabriel Peres · Kuching FA
  17. 45′HALF-TIME Kuching FA 1–1 Kitchee
  18. 45′SECOND HALF Kuching FA 1–1 Kitchee
  19. 49′We said Kuching FA at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–37–14
  20. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kuching FA · On: Ryan Lambert · Off: Kaishu Yamazaki
  21. 51′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 48–39–13
  22. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Kuching FA win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
  23. 56′We said Kuching FA at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–43–13
  24. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Kitchee · On: Walter Soares Belitardo Júnior · Off: Kendy Renato Ikegami Leira
  25. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Kuching FA win 41%)
  26. 63′We said Kuching FA at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–49–12
  27. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Kuching FA win: 67% at kick-off, 37% now
  28. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Kitchee · On: Lam Lok-Kan Jordan · Off: Kam Chi-Kin Jason
  29. 68′We said Kuching FA at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–55–11
  30. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Asier Illarramendi · Kitchee
  31. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Kuching FA · On: Ahmed Israiwah · Off: Ramadhan Saifullah Usman
  32. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Kuching FA · On: Declan Lambert · Off: Ajdin Mujagić
  33. 73′We said Kuching FA at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–62–9
  34. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Kuching FA win: 67% at kick-off, 27% now
  35. 77′We said Kuching FA at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–69–8
  36. 80′We said Kuching FA at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–74–7
  37. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Kuching FA win: 67% at kick-off, 17% now
  38. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Kuching FA · On: Safawi Rasid · Off: Dylan Wenzel-Halls
  39. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Kitchee · On: Tan Chun-Lok · Off: Adrián Revilla Valcárcel
  40. 83′We said Kuching FA at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–81–5
  41. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Kuching FA · On: Gabriel Nistelrooy · Off: João Pedro da Silva Freitas Corrected
  42. 87′We said Kuching FA at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–87–3
  43. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Kuching FA win: 67% at kick-off, 7% now
  44. 90′1–1 at the end. Our 67% on Kuching FA misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  45. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Kuching FA · On: Gabriel Nistelrooy · Off: Jerome etame mpacko
  46. 92′We said Kuching FA at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  47. FTFULL TIME Kuching FA 1–1 Kitchee
  48. FTKuching FA 1–1 Kitchee · Kuching FA win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kuching FA are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kuching FA 67%, draw 20%, Kitchee 13%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Kuching FA v KitcheeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Kuching FA win67%
Draw20%
Kitchee win13%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 13:15

RoundGroup stage · matchday 2

VenueStadium Taha Ariffin

Line-ups

Kuching FA

3-4-2-1

Kitchee

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kuching FA

Kitchee

5Days since last match5
2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Kitchee101
4Kuching FA1−10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kuching FA

3-4-2-1

20 Haziq Nadzli

23 A. Farhan

77 Y. Tanigawa

4 Gabriel Peres

88 K. Yamazaki

10 P. Shitembi

7 Ramadhan Saifullah Usman

22 Joao Pedro

12 D. Wenzel-Halls

11 J. Mpacko Etame

24 A. Mujagić

Coach · A. Sahak

Substitutes

1 · Haziq Aiman

55 · Shahril Sa'ari

27 · F. Anyie

3 · Rodney Celvin Akwensivie

8 · Nazmi Faiz Mansor

44 · Alif Hassan

99 · Ahmad Israiwah

21 · Declan Lambert

5 · R. Lambert

19 · Gabriel Nistelrooy

35 · J. Okwuosa

29 · Safawi Rasid

Kitchee

4-1-4-1

17 Pong Cheuk Hei

6 Jay Haddow

14 Kam Chi Kin Jason

3 Roger Riera

22 C. Beattie

10 Kendy Renato Ikegami Leira

18 Everton Camargo

15 Camarasa

5 Illarramendi

21 Koldo Obieta

9 Revilla

Coach · Iñigo Calderón

Substitutes

37 · Shing-Chun Chan

8 · Cheng Chin Lung

42 · Yiu-Hin Cheung

20 · Dudú

30 · Walter

11 · Y. Kanda

27 · Lam Jordan Lok Kan

13 · Mehmud Enikar

56 · Ma Lok Sephrey

16 · Tan Chun Lok Mark

47 · Yu Ching Wai

Our number · kuching fa winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 11 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
67% The market54%
Us67%
Market54%

We make Kuching FA a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kuching FA v Kitchee2.06 – 0.77
Form · AFC Champions League Two this season · since 17 SeptW0 D0 L1 · W0 D1 L0
Table places · points 0 v 14 v 3
The market · Kuching FA win54% · ours 67%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%50%60%70% 9 OCT 07:2615 OCT 13:04
Our probability · kuching fa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 67% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kuching FA win67%54%+13
Draw20%24%−4
Kitchee win13%22%−9
Over 2.5 goals54%56%−2
Both teams to score47%57%−9
Over 1.5 goals78%78%0
Over 3.5 goals32%35%−4
Kuching FA or draw87%78%+9
Kuching FA clean sheet46%––
Kitchee clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.5%
0123450 6.2 4.3 1 11.8 9.7 3.6 2 12.5 9.7 3.7 3 8.5 6.6 2.6 4 4.4 3.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kuching FA down, Kitchee across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Two this season · since 17 Sept

KUCHING FA

L1–2

KITCHEE

D0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Phnom Penh Crown1+13
2Gangwon FC101
3Kitchee101
4Kuching FA1−10

The competition's standings before kick-off.