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Gangwon FC v Phnom Penh Crown
Gangwon FC
Phnom Penh CrownAFC Champions League Two · THU 15 OCT · Gangneung Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Gangwon FC win at 70%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Gangwon FC 70% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–19–11
- 1′KICK-OFF Gangwon FC v Phnom Penh Crown
- 20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Kim Yi-seok · Gangwon FC
- 26′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Kang Seong-Yun · Gangwon FC
- 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 60% now
- 36′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 58%. 0–0 · 58–30–12
- 44′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–31–46
- 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Gangwon FC 0–1 Phnom Penh Crown
- 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 23% now
- 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Phnom Penh Crown win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Gangwon FC win 23%)
- 45′Phnom Penh Crown ahead on 44′ through Guytho mijland. 0–1. 0–1 · 23–31–46
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Phnom Penh Crown · On: Chanpolin Orn · Off: Pich Koeut
- 46′SECOND HALF Gangwon FC 0–1 Phnom Penh Crown
- 47′HALF-TIME Gangwon FC 0–1 Phnom Penh Crown
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 20% now
- 51′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–31–50
- 58′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–30–55
- 61′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 1–1 · 42–47–11
- 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Gangwon FC 1–1 Phnom Penh Crown
- 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 42% now
- 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Phnom Penh Crown win 11%)
- 62′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 41–48–11
- 64′Abdallah Hleihel scores for Gangwon FC on 61′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 40–50–11
- 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Gangwon FC · On: Jesse Sekidika · Off: Abdallah Hleihel
- 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 40% now
- 65′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–51–10
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Gangwon FC · On: Jung Seung-bin · Off: Eun-Seok Ko Corrected
- 69′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–56–10
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Gangwon FC · On: Lee Eun-ho · Off: Cho Won-woo Corrected
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 33% now
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Gangwon FC · On: Lee Eun-ho · Off: Jesse Sekidika
- 71′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Lee Eun-ho · Gangwon FC
- 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Jung Seung-bin · Gangwon FC
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 30% now
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Phnom Penh Crown · On: Daniel Bares · Off: Guytho mijland
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Phnom Penh Crown · On: Samuel Bong · Off: Callum Timmins
- 74′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–63–8
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Phnom Penh Crown · On: Ponvuthy Pov · Off: Ratana Eam
- 79′Moses Dyer scores for Phnom Penh Crown on 78′. 1–1 · 21–72–6
- 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 20% now
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Gangwon FC · On: Yoo Byung-heon · Off: Park Sang-Hyeok
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 11% now
- 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 10% now
- 88′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–88–3
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Gangwon FC · On: Ji-Nam Choe · Off: Kim Yi-seok Corrected
- 89′Gangwon FC have had 9 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 8–90–2
- 93′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–1 · 3–95–1
- FTFULL TIME Gangwon FC 1–2 Phnom Penh Crown
- FTGangwon FC 1–2 Phnom Penh Crown · Gangwon FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassGangwon FC are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Gangwon FC 70%, draw 19%, Phnom Penh Crown 11%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 45%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off
Gangwon FC win70%
Phnom Penh Crown win11%Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 11:00
RoundGroup stage · matchday 2
VenueGangneung Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Gangwon FCMIN
Phnom Penh CrownEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Gangwon FC
4-4-2
Phnom Penh Crown
5-4-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Gangwon FC
Phnom Penh Crown
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Gangwon FC
4-4-2
41 K. Sung
27 Kim Do-Hyun
38 Eun-Seok Ko
71 Kang Seong-Yun
33 Hong Chul
14 Kang Yun-Gu
75 Kim Yi-Seok
57 Yong-Jae Lee
26 Won-woo Cho
77 A. Halaihal
19 Park Sang-Hyeok
Coach · Chung Kyung-Ho
Substitutes
51 · Cho Min-Kyu
3 · Jeong Seung-Bin
16 · Kim Tae-Hwan
17 · Eun-ho Lee
25 · Hyo-bin Lee
5 · K. Mammar
74 · Ji-Nam Choe
70 · J. Sekidika
22 · Yoo Byung-Heon
Phnom Penh Crown
5-4-1
22 Vichet Um
2 R. Matsuda
5 R. Feher
4 R. Ketting
15 Choun Chanchav
32 Ratana Eam
14 V. Gryshyn
45 C. Timmins
20 Pich Koeut
7 G. Mijland
10 M. Dyer
Coach · Oleg Starynskiy
Substitutes
6 · V. Chhin
1 · S. Chiem
16 · Phearath Long
8 · Orn Chanpolin
23 · Bong Samuel
9 · T. Sa
19 · B. Sorm
11 · D. Yem
28 · Daniel Bares
21 · Razak Tin
44 · Pov Ponvuthy
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Gangwon FC
4-4-2
41 K. Sung
27 Kim Do-Hyun
38 Eun-Seok Ko
71 Kang Seong-Yun
33 Hong Chul
14 Kang Yun-Gu
75 Kim Yi-Seok
57 Yong-Jae Lee
26 Won-woo Cho
77 A. Halaihal
19 Park Sang-Hyeok
Coach · Chung Kyung-Ho
Substitutes
51 · Cho Min-Kyu
3 · Jeong Seung-Bin
16 · Kim Tae-Hwan
17 · Eun-ho Lee
25 · Hyo-bin Lee
5 · K. Mammar
74 · Ji-Nam Choe
70 · J. Sekidika
22 · Yoo Byung-Heon
Phnom Penh Crown
5-4-1
22 Vichet Um
2 R. Matsuda
5 R. Feher
4 R. Ketting
15 Choun Chanchav
32 Ratana Eam
14 V. Gryshyn
45 C. Timmins
20 Pich Koeut
7 G. Mijland
10 M. Dyer
Coach · Oleg Starynskiy
Substitutes
6 · V. Chhin
1 · S. Chiem
16 · Phearath Long
8 · Orn Chanpolin
23 · Bong Samuel
9 · T. Sa
19 · B. Sorm
11 · D. Yem
28 · Daniel Bares
21 · Razak Tin
44 · Pov Ponvuthy
We make Gangwon FC a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 66%, 70% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gangwon FC win | 70% | 62% | +8 |
| Draw | 19% | 22% | −3 |
| Phnom Penh Crown win | 11% | 16% | −5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 50% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 33% | −2 |
| Gangwon FC or draw | 89% | 84% | +5 |
| Gangwon FC clean sheet | 49% | – | – |
| Phnom Penh Crown clean sheet | 12% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · AFC Champions League Two this season · since 17 Sept
GANGWON FC
PHNOM PENH CROWN
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phnom Penh Crown | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 2 | Gangwon FC | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Kitchee | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Kuching FA | 1 | −1 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Kitchee
Kuching FA