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Gangwon FC v Phnom Penh Crown

Gangwon FC
1–2Full time
Phnom Penh Crown

AFC Champions League Two · THU 15 OCT · Gangneung Stadium

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 14:00
Gangwon FC 1–2 Phnom Penh Crown GANGWON FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Gangwon FC win70%
The market said62%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.322
The market’s Brier score1.132

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Gangwon FC win at 70%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Gangwon FC 70% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–19–11
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Gangwon FC v Phnom Penh Crown
  4. 20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Kim Yi-seok · Gangwon FC
  5. 26′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Kang Seong-Yun · Gangwon FC
  6. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 60% now
  7. 36′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 58%. 0–0 · 58–30–12
  8. 44′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–31–46
  9. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Gangwon FC 0–1 Phnom Penh Crown
  10. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 23% now
  11. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Phnom Penh Crown win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Gangwon FC win 23%)
  12. 45′Phnom Penh Crown ahead on 44′ through Guytho mijland. 0–1. 0–1 · 23–31–46
  13. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Phnom Penh Crown · On: Chanpolin Orn · Off: Pich Koeut
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Gangwon FC 0–1 Phnom Penh Crown
  15. 47′HALF-TIME Gangwon FC 0–1 Phnom Penh Crown
  16. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 20% now
  17. 51′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–31–50
  18. 58′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–30–55
  19. 61′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 1–1 · 42–47–11
  20. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Gangwon FC 1–1 Phnom Penh Crown
  21. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 42% now
  22. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Phnom Penh Crown win 11%)
  23. 62′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 41–48–11
  24. 64′Abdallah Hleihel scores for Gangwon FC on 61′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 40–50–11
  25. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Gangwon FC · On: Jesse Sekidika · Off: Abdallah Hleihel
  26. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 40% now
  27. 65′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–51–10
  28. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Gangwon FC · On: Jung Seung-bin · Off: Eun-Seok Ko Corrected
  29. 69′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–56–10
  30. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Gangwon FC · On: Lee Eun-ho · Off: Cho Won-woo Corrected
  31. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 33% now
  32. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Gangwon FC · On: Lee Eun-ho · Off: Jesse Sekidika
  33. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Lee Eun-ho · Gangwon FC
  34. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Jung Seung-bin · Gangwon FC
  35. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 30% now
  36. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Phnom Penh Crown · On: Daniel Bares · Off: Guytho mijland
  37. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Phnom Penh Crown · On: Samuel Bong · Off: Callum Timmins
  38. 74′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–63–8
  39. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Phnom Penh Crown · On: Ponvuthy Pov · Off: Ratana Eam
  40. 79′Moses Dyer scores for Phnom Penh Crown on 78′. 1–1 · 21–72–6
  41. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 20% now
  42. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Gangwon FC · On: Yoo Byung-heon · Off: Park Sang-Hyeok
  43. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 11% now
  44. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Gangwon FC win: 70% at kick-off, 10% now
  45. 88′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–88–3
  46. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Gangwon FC · On: Ji-Nam Choe · Off: Kim Yi-seok Corrected
  47. 89′Gangwon FC have had 9 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 8–90–2
  48. 93′We said Gangwon FC at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–1 · 3–95–1
  49. FTFULL TIME Gangwon FC 1–2 Phnom Penh Crown
  50. FTGangwon FC 1–2 Phnom Penh Crown · Gangwon FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gangwon FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gangwon FC 70%, draw 19%, Phnom Penh Crown 11%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Gangwon FC v Phnom Penh CrownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Gangwon FC win70%
Draw19%
Phnom Penh Crown win11%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup stage · matchday 2

VenueGangneung Stadium

Line-ups

Gangwon FC

4-4-2

Phnom Penh Crown

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gangwon FC

Phnom Penh Crown

6Days since last match28
1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Phnom Penh Crown1+13
2Gangwon FC101

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gangwon FC

4-4-2

41 K. Sung

27 Kim Do-Hyun

38 Eun-Seok Ko

71 Kang Seong-Yun

33 Hong Chul

14 Kang Yun-Gu

75 Kim Yi-Seok

57 Yong-Jae Lee

26 Won-woo Cho

77 A. Halaihal

19 Park Sang-Hyeok

Coach · Chung Kyung-Ho

Substitutes

51 · Cho Min-Kyu

3 · Jeong Seung-Bin

16 · Kim Tae-Hwan

17 · Eun-ho Lee

25 · Hyo-bin Lee

5 · K. Mammar

74 · Ji-Nam Choe

70 · J. Sekidika

22 · Yoo Byung-Heon

Phnom Penh Crown

5-4-1

22 Vichet Um

2 R. Matsuda

5 R. Feher

4 R. Ketting

15 Choun Chanchav

32 Ratana Eam

14 V. Gryshyn

45 C. Timmins

20 Pich Koeut

7 G. Mijland

10 M. Dyer

Coach · Oleg Starynskiy

Substitutes

6 · V. Chhin

1 · S. Chiem

16 · Phearath Long

8 · Orn Chanpolin

23 · Bong Samuel

9 · T. Sa

19 · B. Sorm

11 · D. Yem

28 · Daniel Bares

21 · Razak Tin

44 · Pov Ponvuthy

Our number · gangwon fc winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 10 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
70% The market62%
Us70%
Market62%

We make Gangwon FC a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Gangwon FC v Phnom Penh Crown2.13 – 0.71
Form · AFC Champions League Two this season · since 17 SeptW0 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0
Table places · points 1 v 32 v 1
The market · Gangwon FC win62% · ours 70%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70%75% 9 OCT 07:2615 OCT 10:47
Our probability · gangwon fc win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 70% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Gangwon FC win70%62%+8
Draw19%22%−3
Phnom Penh Crown win11%16%−5
Over 2.5 goals54%54%0
Both teams to score45%50%−5
Over 1.5 goals78%75%+3
Over 3.5 goals32%33%−2
Gangwon FC or draw89%84%+5
Gangwon FC clean sheet49%––
Phnom Penh Crown clean sheet12%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.3%
0123450 6.2 3.9 1 12.2 9.1 3.1 2 13.3 9.4 3.3 3 9.4 6.7 2.4 4 5.0 3.5 5 2.1
under 2% 5% 12%+Gangwon FC down, Phnom Penh Crown across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Two this season · since 17 Sept

GANGWON FC

D0–0

PHNOM PENH CROWN

W2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Phnom Penh Crown1+13
2Gangwon FC101
3Kitchee101
4Kuching FA1−10

The competition's standings before kick-off.