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BG Pathum United v Adelaide United

BG Pathum United
1–2Full time
Adelaide United

AFC Champions League Two · THU 15 OCT · True BG Stadium

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 16:01
BG Pathum United 1–2 Adelaide United ADELAIDE UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Adelaide United win44%
The market said32%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.476
The market’s Brier score0.700

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Adelaide United win at 44%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Adelaide United was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 32–24–44
  3. 1′KICK-OFF BG Pathum United v Adelaide United
  4. 2′BG Pathum United find the net on 2′. 0–0 · 32–24–44
  5. 4′We said Adelaide United at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 56–21–22
  6. 4′⚽ GOAL · 2' BG Pathum United 1–0 Adelaide United · Marin Jurina
  7. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Adelaide United win: 44% at kick-off, 22% now
  8. 4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' BG Pathum United win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Adelaide United win 22%)
  9. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' BG Pathum United 1–1 Adelaide United
  10. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Adelaide United win: 44% at kick-off, 43% now
  11. 10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Adelaide United win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was BG Pathum United win 32%)
  12. 11′Craig Goodwin scores for Adelaide United on 10′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–26–43
  13. 39′BG Pathum United have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 29–33–38
  14. 45′HALF-TIME BG Pathum United 1–1 Adelaide United
  15. 46′SECOND HALF BG Pathum United 1–1 Adelaide United
  16. 48′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–1 · 27–38–35
  17. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Adelaide United win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
  18. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Adelaide United win 34%)
  19. 56′We said Adelaide United at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 25–43–32
  20. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Sarach Yooyen · BG Pathum United
  21. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Anselmo de Moraes · Adelaide United
  22. 62′We said Adelaide United at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 23–48–29
  23. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Adelaide United · On: Ajak Riak · Off: Brody Burkitt
  24. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Adelaide United · On: Fabian Talladira · Off: Jay Barnett
  25. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' BG Pathum United · On: Ashley Mark Coffey · Off: Hugo Rama
  26. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' BG Pathum United · On: Fabio Kaufmann · Off: Lucas Andersen
  27. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' BG Pathum United · On: Marko Nikolić · Off: Yefferson Quintana
  28. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Adelaide United win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
  29. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Panagiotis Kikianis · Adelaide United
  30. 73′17 shots for BG Pathum United, 9 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 18–61–22
  31. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' BG Pathum United · On: Waris Chuthong · Off: Patrik Gustavsson
  32. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Adelaide United · On: Joey Garuccio · Off: Jonny Yull
  33. 76′We said Adelaide United at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 16–65–19
  34. 77′We published Adelaide United at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 1–13–85
  35. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' BG Pathum United 1–2 Adelaide United
  36. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Adelaide United win: 44% at kick-off, 85% now
  37. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Adelaide United win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
  38. 78′77′: Ethan Alagich on the scoresheet for Adelaide United, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 1–13–86
  39. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Anthony Belmonte · BG Pathum United
  40. 82′We published Adelaide United at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
  41. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' BG Pathum United · On: Joao Magno · Off: Anthony Belmonte
  42. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Adelaide United · On: Amlani Tatu · Off: Craig Goodwin
  43. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Adelaide United · On: Feyzo Kasumovic · Off: Anselmo de Moraes
  44. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Adelaide United win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
  45. 89′We published Adelaide United at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  46. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Ajak Riak · Adelaide United
  47. FTFULL TIME BG Pathum United 1–2 Adelaide United
  48. FTBG Pathum United 1–2 Adelaide United · Adelaide United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Adelaide United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: BG Pathum United 32%, draw 24%, Adelaide United 44%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on BG Pathum United v Adelaide UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

BG Pathum United win32%
Draw24%
Adelaide United win44%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 13:15

RoundGroup stage · matchday 2

VenueTrue BG Stadium

Line-ups

BG Pathum United

4-4-2

Adelaide United

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BG Pathum United

Adelaide United

5Days since last match28
1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Adelaide United1+33
3BG Pathum United101

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

BG Pathum United

4-4-2

28 S. Anuin

16 T. Yanagi

3 Y. Quintana

5 K. Kaman

27 J. Scherzer

11 P. Gustavsson

26 A. Belmonte

6 S. Yooyen

30 Hugo Rama

10 Lucas Andersen

20 M. Jurina

Coach · Vladimir Vujović

Substitutes

2 · C. Tamma

79 · W. Phraothaisong

50 · E. Osmanović

44 · Marko Nikolić

22 · Matheus Costa

37 · F. Kaufmann

45 · João Magno

4 · L. James

49 · N. Ineachaeoen

19 · A. Coffey

48 · W. Choolthong

Adelaide United

4-4-2

22 J. Smits

58 H. Crawford

52 S. Phillis

4 P. Kikianis

14 J. Barnett

12 J. Yull

87 Anselmo

55 E. Alagich

11 C. Goodwin

10 Juan Muñiz

35 Brody Burkitt

Coach · Airton Andrioli

Substitutes

19 · A. Tatu

62 · F. Talladira

99 · A. Riak

79 · F. Kasumovic

23 · L. Đuzel

40 · E. Cox

65 · J. Garuccio

Our number · adelaide united winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 00:28 · locked at kick-off
44% The market32%
Us44%
Market32%

We make Adelaide United a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · BG Pathum United v Adelaide United1.41 – 1.68
Form · AFC Champions League Two this season · since 17 SeptW0 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0
Table places · points 1 v 33 v 1
The market · Adelaide United win32% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
20%30%40%50% 9 OCT 07:2615 OCT 13:04
Our probability · adelaide united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
BG Pathum United win32%42%−10
Draw24%25%−1
Adelaide United win44%32%+11
Over 2.5 goals60%57%+2
Both teams to score62%60%+1
Over 1.5 goals82%79%+3
Over 3.5 goals37%36%+1
BG Pathum United or draw56%68%−11
BG Pathum United clean sheet19%––
Adelaide United clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%
0123450 4.9 7.3 6.5 3.6 1 6.1 11.1 9.1 5.1 2.1 2 4.5 7.6 6.4 3.6 3 2.1 3.5 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+BG Pathum United down, Adelaide United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Two this season · since 17 Sept

BG PATHUM UNITED

D1–1

ADELAIDE UNITED

W3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Adelaide United1+33
2Home United101
3BG Pathum United101
4Wofoo Tai Po1−30

The competition's standings before kick-off.