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Al Kuwait v Khalidiya

Al Kuwait
3–1Full time
Khalidiya

AFC Champions League Two · WED 14 OCT · Al Sulaibikhat Stadium

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 19:45
Al Kuwait 3–1 Khalidiya AL KUWAIT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al Kuwait win47%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.424
The market’s Brier score0.512

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Kuwait win at 47%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Al Kuwait was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Al Kuwait v Khalidiya
  4. 17′SUBSTITUTION · 17' Al Kuwait · On: Ahmad Al-Dhefiri · Off: Meshari Al-Enezi
  5. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Mohamed Adel Mohamed Ali Hasan · Khalidiya
  6. 45′We published Al Kuwait at 47%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
  7. 45′45′ and it is 1–0: Faisal Zayed Al-Harbi on the scoresheet for Al Kuwait. 1–0 · 75–19–7
  8. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Al Kuwait 1–0 Khalidiya
  9. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Al Kuwait win: 47% at kick-off, 75% now
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Al Kuwait 1–0 Khalidiya
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Al Kuwait 1–0 Khalidiya
  12. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Al Kuwait win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
  13. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Khalidiya · On: Mohamed Al-Romaihi · Off: Mahdi Al-Humaidan
  14. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Khalidiya · On: Fabrice Badouina Onana · Off: Patrick Maswanganyi
  15. 64′We published Al Kuwait at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  16. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Al Kuwait · On: Yousef Nasser Al-Sulaiman · Off: Taha Yassine Khenissi
  17. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Al Kuwait · On: Abdullah Al-Qarzaei · Off: Faisal Zayed Al-Harbi
  18. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Walid Sabbar · Khalidiya
  19. 66′Al Kuwait ahead on 65′ through Yousef Nasser Al-Sulaiman. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  20. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Al Kuwait 2–0 Khalidiya · Faisal Zayed Al-Harbi
  21. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Al Kuwait win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
  22. 67′We published Al Kuwait at 47%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  23. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Khalidiya · On: Gleison · Off: Dominique Mendy
  24. 69′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 2–0 · 97–2–0
  25. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Khalidiya · On: Hazaa Ali · Off: Oussama Shili
  26. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Khalidiya · On: R. Boumessous · Off: Mohamed Adel Mohamed Ali Hasan
  27. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Khalidiya · On: Hazaa Ali · Off: Oussama Shili
  28. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Khalidiya · On: R. Boumessous · Off: Mohamed Adel Mohamed Ali Hasan
  29. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al Kuwait · On: Sami Al-Sanea · Off: Mohammad Frieh
  30. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al Kuwait · On: Humoud Al-Sanousi · Off: Ali Pourdara
  31. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Al Kuwait 2–1 Khalidiya
  32. 81′Gleison scores for Khalidiya on 81′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 90–10–1
  33. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Al Kuwait win: 47% at kick-off, 90% now
  34. 82′Gleison scores for Khalidiya on 80′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 91–9–1
  35. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Mehdi Berrahma · Al Kuwait
  36. 83′We published Al Kuwait at 47%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–1 · 92–8–0
  37. 84′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 93–7–0
  38. 90′90′ and it is 3–1: Yousef Nasser Al-Sulaiman on the scoresheet for Al Kuwait. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  39. 90′We published Al Kuwait at 47%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  40. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Al Kuwait 3–1 Khalidiya · Yousef Nasser Al-Sulaiman
  41. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Al Kuwait win: 47% at kick-off, 100% now
  42. FTFULL TIME Al Kuwait 3–1 Khalidiya
  43. FTAl Kuwait 3–1 Khalidiya · Al Kuwait win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Al Kuwait v KhalidiyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off

Al Kuwait win47%
Draw25%
Khalidiya win28%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 17:00

VenueAl Sulaibikhat Stadium

Line-ups

Al Kuwait

4-1-4-1

Khalidiya

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Al Kuwait

Khalidiya

28Days since last match28
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Khalidiya101
4Al Kuwait1-10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Kuwait

4-1-4-1

33 S. Al Hoshan

23 Mohammad Frieh

25 O. Gonzalez

35 Arsène Zola

3 Meshari Al Enezi

6 Mehdi Berrahma

11 Mohammad Daham

9 Faisal Zayed Al-Harbi

21 A. Dara

10 Amr Abdelfattah

27 T. Khenissi

Coach · Firas Al-Khatib

Substitutes

88 · Abdullah Al-Qarzaei

1 · K. Al Rashidi

2 · Sami Al Sanea

28 · M. Hernandez

20 · Yousef Al Sulaiman

8 · Ahmad Al-Dhefiri

5 · R. Hani

72 · Humoud Al-Sanousi

13 · Fahad Hammoud Al-Rashidi

40 · A. Kameel

7 · Ebrahim Kameel

Khalidiya

4-2-3-1

41 Ricardo Silva

3 Mohamed Adel

24 D. Velkovski

23 A. Assal

30 Oussama Shili

6 W. Sabbar

21 D. Mendy

10 Mahdi Al-Humaidan

28 P. Maswanganyi

20 S. Bouhra

25 D. Drožđek

Coach · Goran Tomic

Substitutes

33 · Mohammad Al Gharably

5 · Seydina·Lahi Dabo

15 · R. Boumessous

13 · Mohamed Al-Romaihi

7 · N. El Otmani

9 · Gleison

11 · Yaya Al Hadj Hassan Ousman

8 · C. O'Connell

66 · Fabrice Badouina Onana

17 · Hazaa Ali

Our number · al kuwait winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off
47% The market42%
Us47%
Market42%

We make Al Kuwait a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Al Kuwait v Khalidiya1.68 – 1.27
Last six in AFC Champions League TwoW1 D2 L3 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 0 v 14 v 3
The market · Al Kuwait win42% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 9 OCT 06:2114 OCT 04:58
Our probability · al kuwait win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al Kuwait win47%42%+5
Draw25%26%−2
Khalidiya win28%32%−4
Over 2.5 goals57%51%+5
Both teams to score59%––
Over 1.5 goals80%––
Over 3.5 goals34%––
Al Kuwait or draw72%68%+4
Al Kuwait clean sheet28%––
Khalidiya clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%
0123450 5.6 6.3 4.2 1 8.5 11.5 7.1 3.0 2 7.4 9.4 5.9 2.5 3 4.2 5.3 3.3 4 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Al Kuwait down, Khalidiya across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in AFC Champions League Two since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in AFC Champions League Two

AL KUWAIT

LLDWDL1–2 · 1–4 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–3

KHALIDIYA

WDLDLD2–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Al Wahda FC113
2Nasaf101
3Khalidiya101
4Al Kuwait1-10

The competition's standings.