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Model 1.2

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Adelaide United v Home United

Adelaide United
07:45Upcoming
Home United

AFC Champions League Two · THU 29 OCT · Coopers Stadium

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Adelaide UnitedDrawHome United
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 07:45
Before kick-off · Match result · Adelaide United 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Adelaide United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Adelaide United 58%, draw 21%, Home United 21%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Adelaide United v Home UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Adelaide United win58%
Draw21%
Home United win21%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 07:45

RoundGroup stage · matchday 3

VenueCoopers Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Adelaide United

Home United

14Days since last match11

Last match: 15 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Singapore)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27 · Group F

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Adelaide United2+46
2Home United2+14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · adelaide united winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
58% The market–
Us58%

We make Adelaide United a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Adelaide United v Home United2.15 – 1.23
Form · AFC Champions League Two this season · since 17 SeptW2 D0 L0 · W1 D1 L0
Table places · points 6 v 41 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Adelaide United win58%––
Draw21%––
Home United win21%––
Over 2.5 goals66%––
Both teams to score63%––
Over 1.5 goals85%––
Over 3.5 goals44%––
Adelaide United or draw79%––
Adelaide United clean sheet29%––
Home United clean sheet12%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.7%
0123450 3.7 3.9 2.6 1 7.0 9.3 5.5 2.3 2 7.9 9.7 6.0 2.4 3 5.6 6.9 4.3 4 3.0 3.7 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Adelaide United down, Home United across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Two this season · since 17 Sept

ADELAIDE UNITED

WW3–0 · 2–1

HOME UNITED

DW1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27 · Group F
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Adelaide United2+46
2Home United2+14
3BG Pathum United2−11
4Wofoo Tai Po2−40

The competition's standings before kick-off.