Tractor Sazi v Al Shamal prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:31

Tractor Sazi 0–0 Al Shamal TRACTOR SAZI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tractor Sazi win~~58%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.932

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.765

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tractor Sazi win at 58%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tractor Sazi 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–24–18
1′KICK-OFF Tractor Sazi v Al Shamal
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Nassim Benaissa · Al Shamal
45′HALF-TIME Tractor Sazi 0–0 Al Shamal
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Tractor Sazi · On: Mehdi Shiri · Off: Seyed Mehdi Hosseini
46′SECOND HALF Tractor Sazi 0–0 Al Shamal
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tractor Sazi · On: Tomislav Štrkalj · Off: Shahriyar Moghanloo Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al Shamal · On: Mowafak Awad · Off: Michel Termanini
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Al Shamal · On: Musab Khoder · Off: Youssouf Sabaly
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Tractor Sazi · On: Saeid Karimazar · Off: Milad Zakipour
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Tractor Sazi · On: Sadegh Moharrami · Off: Danial Esmaeilifar
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Tractor Sazi · On: Morteza Fazeli · Off: Tibor Halilović
FTFULL TIME Tractor Sazi 0–0 Al Shamal
FTTractor Sazi 0–0 Al Shamal · Tractor Sazi win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:02 · locked at kick-off

Tractor Sazi win58%

Draw25%

Al Shamal win18%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 17:00

VenueSultan Qaboos Sports Complex

Line-ups

Tractor Sazi

4-4-2

Al Shamal

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Tractor Sazi

Al Shamal

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Al Shamal	1	0	1
28	Tractor Sazi	1	−1	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Tractor Sazi

4-4-2

81 Parsa Jafari

11 Danial Esmaeilifar

33 Farshad Faraji

3 Shoja Khalilzadeh

22 Mohammad Naderi

6 Seyed Mehdi Hosseini

5 Odiljon Khamrobekov

7 Tibor Halilović

4 Milad Zakipour

70 Shahriar Moghanlou

99 Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh

Coach · Javad Nekounam

Substitutes

2 · Mehdi Shiri

19 · Tomislav Štrkalj

88 · Saeid Karimazar

18 · Sadegh Moharrami

71 · Morteza Fazeli

23 · Yasin Zare

58 · Mohammad Daneshgar

44 · Erfan Darvishaali

27 · Amirali Khorrami

17 · Masoud Kazemayni

Al Shamal

4-2-3-1

95 Babacar Seck

20 Youssouf Sabaly

24 Jeison Murillo

4 Pablo Marí

16 Federico Bais

23 Michel Termanini

28 Nassim Benaissa

10 Alex Collado

70 Tiago Silva

5 Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane

22 Wesley Saïd

Coach · David Prats

Substitutes

2 · Mowafak Awad

6 · Musab Khoder

67 · Saoud Mubarak

45 · Abdullah El Rady Mohamed

37 · Ahmed Suhail

47 · Fahad Waad

3 · Abdelkarim Hassan

17 · Abdullah Al-Ahrak

8 · Ali Asad

14 · Omar Ali

Our number · tractor sazi winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 11 Oct 04:09 · locked at kick-off

58% The market38%

Us58%

~~Market~~38%

We make Tractor Sazi a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 19 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tractor sazi win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 57% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tractor Sazi win	58%	38%	+19
Draw	25%	29%	−4
Al Shamal win	18%	33%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	47%	47%	0
Both teams to score	47%	53%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	73%	71%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	27%	−2
Tractor Sazi or draw	82%	67%	+15
Tractor Sazi clean sheet	43%	–	–
Al Shamal clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 8.2 6.2 2.8 1 13.0 11.6 4.7 2 11.4 9.6 4.0 3 6.5 5.5 2.3 4 2.8 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tractor Sazi down, Al Shamal across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,935 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 12 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Tractor Sazi play in the Persian Gulf Pro League, Al Shamal in the Stars League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Tractor Sazi are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting in this competition in our records, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Tractor Sazi, 0.84 for Al Shamal. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 16:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meeting of these two in AFC Champions League Elite since 2021 in our records. Only this competition's matches are held here: cup ties and meetings in other leagues are not, and we say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in AFC Champions League Elite

TRACTOR SAZI

WWLWLL1–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 0–1

AL SHAMAL

D1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Ittihad FC	2	+3	4
2	Gamba Osaka	2	+3	4
3	Pakhtakor	2	+3	4
4	Kashima	1	+6	3
5	Al Ain	1	+4	3
6	Esteghlal FC	1	+3	3
7	SHANGHAI SIPG	1	+2	3
8	Beijing Guoan	1	+2	3
9	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	1	+1	3
10	Al-Qadisiyah FC	1	+1	3
11	Jeonbuk Motors	1	+1	3
12	Vissel Kobe	1	+1	3
13	Daejeon Citizen	1	+1	3
14	Neftchi	1	+1	3
15	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	1	+1	3
16	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−1	3
17	Al Shamal	1	0	1
18	Al-Ahli Jeddah	1	0	1
19	Buriram United	1	0	1
20	Johor Darul Takzim FC	1	0	1
21	Gangwon FC	1	0	1
22	Al-Gharafa	1	−1	0
23	Al-Wasl FC	1	−1	0
24	Kashiwa Reysol	1	−1	0
25	Port FC	1	−1	0
26	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1	−1	0
27	Kyoto Sanga	1	−1	0
28	Tractor Sazi	1	−1	0
29	Ratchaburi	1	−2	0
30	Pohang Steelers	1	−2	0
31	Adelaide United	1	−2	0
32	Al-Jazira	1	−3	0
33	Al Hussein	1	−3	0
34	Al Sadd	1	−3	0
35	Al-Nassr	1	−4	0
36	Newcastle Jets	1	−6	0