SHANGHAI SIPG v Daejeon Citizen prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 13:47

SHANGHAI SIPG 1–1 Daejeon Citizen DAEJEON CITIZEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Daejeon Citizen win~~39%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.868

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.843

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Daejeon Citizen win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Daejeon Citizen was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 38–23–39
1′KICK-OFF SHANGHAI SIPG v Daejeon Citizen
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' SHANGHAI SIPG 0–1 Daejeon Citizen
26′25′ and it is 0–0: Daejeon Citizen have scored. 0–0 · 35–28–36
31′30′ and it is 0–0: SHANGHAI SIPG have scored. 0–0 · 35–30–36
45′HALF-TIME SHANGHAI SIPG 0–0 Daejeon Citizen
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' João Victor · Daejeon Citizen
46′SECOND HALF SHANGHAI SIPG 0–0 Daejeon Citizen
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' SHANGHAI SIPG 1–0 Daejeon Citizen
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' SHANGHAI SIPG 1–0 Daejeon Citizen · Prince Ampem
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' SHANGHAI SIPG 1–1 Daejeon Citizen · Prince Ampem
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' SHANGHAI SIPG 1–1 Daejeon Citizen · Diogo Oliveira
64′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Park Kyu-Hyun · Daejeon Citizen
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Daejeon Citizen · On: Um Won-Sang · Off: João Victor
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Daejeon Citizen · On: Joo Min-Kyu · Off: Diogo Oliveira
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Daejeon Citizen · On: Gustav Ludwigson · Off: Jeong Jae-hee
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' SHANGHAI SIPG · On: Liu Zhurun · Off: Mateus Vital
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' SHANGHAI SIPG · On: Leonardo Nascimento Lopes de Souza · Off: Wu Lei
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' SHANGHAI SIPG · On: Li Shuai · Off: Wang Zhen’ao
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' SHANGHAI SIPG · On: Umidjan Yusup · Off: Zhang Linpeng
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Daejeon Citizen · On: Masatoshi Ishida · Off: Seo Jin-Su
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' SHANGHAI SIPG · On: Kodjo Jean Claude · Off: Óscar Melendo
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Daejeon Citizen · On: Kim Jin-ya · Off: Park Kyu-Hyun
FTFULL TIME SHANGHAI SIPG 1–1 Daejeon Citizen
FTSHANGHAI SIPG 1–1 Daejeon Citizen · Daejeon Citizen win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 10:20 · locked at kick-off

SHANGHAI SIPG win37%

Draw24%

Daejeon Citizen win39%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 11:00

VenueShanghai Pudong Football Stadium

RefereeMohammed Khled Al-Hoish

Line-ups

SHANGHAI SIPG

5-4-1

Daejeon Citizen

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

SHANGHAI SIPG

Daejeon Citizen

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	SHANGHAI SIPG	1	+2	3
14	Daejeon Citizen	1	+1	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

SHANGHAI SIPG

5-4-1

1 Yan Junling

22 Xi Yang

44 Miguel Campos

13 Zhen Wei

5 Zhang Linpeng

19 Wang Zhenao

21 Óscar Melendo

16 Jaume Grau

10 Mateus Vital

17 Prince Ampem

7 Wu Lei

Coach · –

Substitutes

32 · Shuai Li

33 · Liu Zhurun

45 · Leonardo

40 · Yusup Umidjan

8 · Jean Claude Aziangbe

12 · Chen Wei

28 · Yue Xin

23 · Fu Huan

4 · Wang Shenchao

6 · Yuan Zhang

47 · Kuai Jiwen

49 · Xinxiang Li

Daejeon Citizen

4-4-2

25 Lee Jun-Seo

6 Yun-seong Kang

45 Chang-rae Ha

98 Anton Kryvotsiuk

2 Kyu-hyun Park

27 Jae-hee Jeong

30 Kim Bong-Soo

44 Soon-min Lee

77 João Victor

9 Diogo Oliveira

19 Jin-su Seo

Coach · –

Substitutes

17 · Gustav Ludwigson

11 · Won-Sang Um

10 · Min-kyu Joo

7 · Masatoshi Ishida

13 · Jin-ya Kim

1 · Lee Chang-geun

3 · Min-deok Kim

4 · Jo Seong-Kwon

14 · Jun-beom Kim

41 · Byung-chan Park

Our number · daejeon citizen winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 10:20 · locked at kick-off

39% The market32%

Us39%

~~Market~~32%

We make Daejeon Citizen a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · daejeon citizen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SHANGHAI SIPG win	37%	43%	−6
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Daejeon Citizen win	39%	32%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	63%	59%	+3
Both teams to score	65%	63%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	80%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	41%	40%	+1
SHANGHAI SIPG or draw	61%	68%	−7
SHANGHAI SIPG clean sheet	19%	–	–
Daejeon Citizen clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.3 6.1 5.2 2.9 1 6.0 10.6 8.4 4.6 2 5.0 8.2 6.7 3.7 3 2.7 4.4 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SHANGHAI SIPG down, Daejeon Citizen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

SHANGHAI SIPG play in the Super League, Daejeon Citizen in the K League 1.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: SHANGHAI SIPG are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.60 goals for SHANGHAI SIPG, 1.64 for Daejeon Citizen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in AFC Champions League Elite since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in AFC Champions League Elite

SHANGHAI SIPG

LLDDDW0–2 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 6–4

DAEJEON CITIZEN

W1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ain	2	+7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	+4	6
3	Pakhtakor	3	+3	5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	2	+3	4
5	Gamba Osaka	2	+3	4
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	+2	4
7	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	+1	4
8	Kashima	1	+6	3
9	SHANGHAI SIPG	1	+2	3
10	Beijing Guoan	1	+2	3
11	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	1	+1	3
12	Jeonbuk Motors	1	+1	3
13	Vissel Kobe	1	+1	3
14	Daejeon Citizen	1	+1	3
15	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	1	+1	3
16	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−1	3
17	Neftchi	2	−1	3
18	Al-Nassr	2	−2	3
19	Al Shamal	2	0	2
20	Buriram United	1	0	1
21	Johor Darul Takzim FC	1	0	1
22	Gangwon FC	1	0	1
23	Tractor Sazi	2	−1	1
24	Kashiwa Reysol	1	−1	0
25	Port FC	1	−1	0
26	Kyoto Sanga	1	−1	0
27	Ratchaburi	1	−2	0
28	Al-Gharafa	2	−2	0
29	Pohang Steelers	1	−2	0
30	Adelaide United	1	−2	0
31	Al-Wasl FC	2	−3	0
32	Al-Jazira	1	−3	0
33	Al Hussein	1	−3	0
34	Al Sadd	1	−3	0
35	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	−4	0
36	Newcastle Jets	1	−6	0