SHANGHAI SIPG v Công An Nhân Dân prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SHANGHAI SIPGDrawCông An Nhân Dân

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · SHANGHAI SIPG 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SHANGHAI SIPG are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SHANGHAI SIPG 42%, draw 24%, Công An Nhân Dân 34%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on SHANGHAI SIPG v Công An Nhân DânBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

SHANGHAI SIPG win42%

Draw24%

Công An Nhân Dân win34%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 10:00

RoundLeague phase · matchday 3

VenueShanghai Pudong Football Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SHANGHAI SIPG

Công An Nhân Dân

3Days since last match5

Last match: 24 Oct · the Chinese Super League

Last match: 22 Oct · V.League 1

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	2	+2	4
13	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−4	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shanghai sipg winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make SHANGHAI SIPG a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SHANGHAI SIPG v Công An Nhân Dân~~1.70 – 1.49

~~Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 11 Aug~~W1 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 0~~5 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SHANGHAI SIPG win	42%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Công An Nhân Dân win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
SHANGHAI SIPG or draw	66%	–	–
SHANGHAI SIPG clean sheet	22%	–	–
Công An Nhân Dân clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.5 5.8 4.6 2.3 1 6.6 10.8 7.8 3.9 2 5.9 8.9 6.6 3.3 3 3.4 5.0 3.7 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SHANGHAI SIPG down, Công An Nhân Dân across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 409,721 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 24 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

SHANGHAI SIPG play in the Chinese Super League, Công An Nhân Dân in V.League 1.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: SHANGHAI SIPG are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022.

What the model expects

1.70 goals for SHANGHAI SIPG, 1.49 for Công An Nhân Dân. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 11 Aug

SHANGHAI SIPG

WD6–4 · 1–1

CÔNG AN NHÂN DÂN

WLL2–0 · 1–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27 · East Region

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kashima	2	+7	6
2	Gamba Osaka	2	+5	6
3	Vissel Kobe	2	+3	6
4	Beijing Guoan	2	+3	6
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	2	+2	4
6	Johor Darul Takzim FC	2	+2	4
7	Daejeon Citizen	2	+1	4
8	Kashiwa Reysol	2	+3	3
9	Kyoto Sanga	2	0	3
10	Jeonbuk Motors	2	−1	3
11	Buriram United	2	−1	1
12	Ratchaburi	2	−3	0
13	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−4	0
14	Pohang Steelers	2	−4	0
15	Port FC	2	−5	0
16	Newcastle Jets	2	−8	0