Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Esteghlal FC prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Shabab Al Ahli DubaiDrawEsteghlal FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58%, draw 24%, Esteghlal FC 18%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Esteghlal FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win58%

Draw24%

Esteghlal FC win18%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 16:00

RoundLeague phase · matchday 3

VenueAl-Rashid Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

Esteghlal FC

5Days since last match4

Last match: 22 Oct · Presidents Cup

Last match: 23 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Esteghlal FC	2	+4	6
4	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	2	+2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shabab al ahli dubai winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 58% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Esteghlal FC~~1.73 – 0.84

~~Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 14 Sept~~W2 D0 L0 · W2 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 6~~4 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win	58%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Esteghlal FC win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or draw	82%	–	–
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai clean sheet	43%	–	–
Esteghlal FC clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 8.0 6.0 2.7 1 12.9 11.5 4.6 2 11.5 9.6 4.0 3 6.6 5.6 2.3 4 2.9 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shabab Al Ahli Dubai down, Esteghlal FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,565 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 23 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play in Pro League (United Arab Emirates), Esteghlal FC in Persian Gulf Pro League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 0.84 for Esteghlal FC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 14 Sept

SHABAB AL AHLI DUBAI

WW1–0 · 2–1

ESTEGHLAL FC

WW3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27 · West Region

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ain	2	+7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	+4	6
3	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	2	+3	6
4	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	2	+2	6
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	+2	4
6	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	+1	4
7	Neftchi	2	−1	3
8	Al-Nassr	2	−2	3
9	Pakhtakor	2	0	2
10	Al Shamal	2	0	2
11	Al-Ittihad FC	2	−1	1
12	Tractor Sazi	2	−1	1
13	Al-Gharafa	2	−2	0
14	Al-Wasl FC	2	−3	0
15	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	−4	0
16	Al Sadd	2	−5	0