Ratchaburi v Kashiwa Reysol prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RatchaburiDrawKashiwa Reysol

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Kashiwa Reysol 64%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kashiwa Reysol are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ratchaburi 16%, draw 19%, Kashiwa Reysol 64%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Ratchaburi v Kashiwa ReysolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Ratchaburi win16%

Draw19%

Kashiwa Reysol win64%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 12:15

RoundLeague phase · matchday 3

VenueDragon Solar Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ratchaburi

Kashiwa Reysol

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · Thai League 1

Last match: 24 Oct · J1 League

4Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Kashiwa Reysol	2	+3	3
12	Ratchaburi	2	−3	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kashiwa reysol winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:30 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Kashiwa Reysol a 64% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–2.3, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ratchaburi v Kashiwa Reysol~~1.10 – 2.32

~~Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 15 Sept~~W0 D0 L2 · W1 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~12 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kashiwa Reysol win

Published at 63%, 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ratchaburi win	16%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Kashiwa Reysol win	64%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Ratchaburi or draw	36%	–	–
Ratchaburi clean sheet	10%	–	–
Kashiwa Reysol clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.7%

0123450 3.5 7.3 8.8 6.8 3.9 1 3.3 8.6 9.7 7.5 4.3 2.02 4.6 5.3 4.1 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ratchaburi down, Kashiwa Reysol across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 409,594 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 24 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Ratchaburi play in Thai League 1, Kashiwa Reysol in J1 League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Ratchaburi are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022.

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Ratchaburi, 2.32 for Kashiwa Reysol. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 15 Sept

RATCHABURI

LL4–6 · 0–1

KASHIWA REYSOL

LW1–2 · 5–1

The table

2026/27 · East Region

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kashima	2	+7	6
2	Gamba Osaka	2	+5	6
3	Vissel Kobe	2	+3	6
4	Beijing Guoan	2	+3	6
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	2	+2	4
6	Johor Darul Takzim FC	2	+2	4
7	Daejeon Citizen	2	+1	4
8	Kashiwa Reysol	2	+3	3
9	Kyoto Sanga	2	0	3
10	Jeonbuk Motors	2	−1	3
11	Buriram United	2	−1	1
12	Ratchaburi	2	−3	0
13	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−4	0
14	Pohang Steelers	2	−4	0
15	Port FC	2	−5	0
16	Newcastle Jets	2	−8	0