Pohang Steelers v Johor Darul Takzim FC prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 13:47

Pohang Steelers 0–2 Johor Darul Takzim FC JOHOR DARUL TAKZIM FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Johor Darul Takzim FC win~~56%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.291

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.462

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Johor Darul Takzim FC win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Johor Darul Takzim FC 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 19–24–56
1′KICK-OFF Pohang Steelers v Johor Darul Takzim FC
11′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Shahab Zahedi · Johor Darul Takzim FC
33′We said Johor Darul Takzim FC at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 0–1 · 4–15–81
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Pohang Steelers 0–1 Johor Darul Takzim FC
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Johor Darul Takzim FC win: 56% at kick-off, 81% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Johor Darul Takzim FC win: 56% at kick-off, 47% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Johor Darul Takzim FC win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Jeon Min-kwang · Pohang Steelers
45′🟥 RED CARD · 45' Pohang Steelers
45′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Juninho Rocha · Pohang Steelers
45′HALF-TIME Pohang Steelers 0–0 Johor Darul Takzim FC
47′SECOND HALF Pohang Steelers 0–0 Johor Darul Takzim FC
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Pohang Steelers 0–1 Johor Darul Takzim FC
51′⚽ GOAL · 49' Pohang Steelers 0–1 Johor Darul Takzim FC · Marcos Guilherme
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Pohang Steelers · On: Kim Ye-Sung · Off: Kento Nishiya
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pohang Steelers · On: Lee Chang-Woo · Off: Kim Dong-Jin
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Cristian Glauder · Johor Darul Takzim FC
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Johor Darul Takzim FC · On: Bergson Gustavo Silveira da Silva · Off: Oscar Arribas
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Johor Darul Takzim FC · On: Jairo de Macedo da Silva · Off: Shahab Zahedi
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Pohang Steelers · On: Cho Sang-Hyeok · Off: Jorge Luiz Barbosa Teixeira
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Johor Darul Takzim FC · On: Stoichkov · Off: Arif Aiman bin Mohd Hanapi
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Pohang Steelers 0–2 Johor Darul Takzim FC · Marcos Guilherme
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Pohang Steelers 0–2 Johor Darul Takzim FC · Marcos Guilherme
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Johor Darul Takzim FC · On: Natxo Insa · Off: Dejan Petrović
FTFULL TIME Pohang Steelers 0–2 Johor Darul Takzim FC
FTPohang Steelers 0–2 Johor Darul Takzim FC · Johor Darul Takzim FC win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 10:20 · locked at kick-off

Pohang Steelers win19%

Draw25%

Johor Darul Takzim FC win56%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 11:00

VenuePohang Steel Yard

RefereeAdham Makhadmeh

Line-ups

Pohang Steelers

4-1-4-1

Johor Darul Takzim FC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pohang Steelers

Johor Darul Takzim FC

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
21	Johor Darul Takzim FC	1	0	1
29	Pohang Steelers	1	−2	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Pohang Steelers

4-1-4-1

29 Hong Sung-min

13 Kang Min-Jun

20 Park Chan-Yong

4 Jeon Min-kwang

77 Wanderson

40 Ki Sung-Yueng

11 J. da Rocha Junior

16 Kim Dong-Jin

31 K. Nishiya

25 Jorge Teixeira

10 J. Tranziska

Coach · Tae-Ha Park

Substitutes

21 · Hwang In-Jae

14 · Lee Chang-Woo

5 · Jin Si-woo

3 · Kim Ye-Sung

17 · Shin Kwang-Hoon

8 · Kim Seung-Ho

12 · J. Hwang

36 · H. Kim

30 · Kim Yong-Hak

37 · Jung Han-Min

9 · J. An

18 · Cho Sang-Hyeok

Johor Darul Takzim FC

4-2-3-1

16 S. Hazmi

29 C. Akapo

81 K. Medina

5 Antonio Cristian

33 J. Silva

21 D. Petrovic

28 N. Mendez

24 O. Arribas

10 A. Aiman

95 Marcos Guilherme

7 S. Zahedi

Coach · Xisco

Substitutes

58 · A. Zubiaurre

1 · C. Abad Amat

20 · Dani Bolt

15 · F. Baharudin

44 · M. Cuesta

30 · N. Insa

4 · A. Fazail

77 · M. Nahuel

19 · Stoichkov

9 · Bergson

11 · Jairo

40 · D. Amirruddin

Our number · johor darul takzim fc winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 10:20 · locked at kick-off

56% The market45%

Us56%

~~Market~~45%

We make Johor Darul Takzim FC a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · johor darul takzim fc win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pohang Steelers win	19%	29%	−10
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Johor Darul Takzim FC win	56%	45%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	47%	55%	−8
Both teams to score	48%	59%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	73%	77%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	26%	35%	−10
Pohang Steelers or draw	44%	55%	−12
Pohang Steelers clean sheet	19%	–	–
Johor Darul Takzim FC clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.1 12.6 11.0 6.1 2.6 1 6.4 11.8 9.6 5.4 2.3 2 3.0 5.0 4.2 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pohang Steelers down, Johor Darul Takzim FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Pohang Steelers play in the K League 1, Johor Darul Takzim FC in the Super League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Pohang Steelers are at home.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

0.88 goals for Pohang Steelers, 1.68 for Johor Darul Takzim FC. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~JOH 5–2 POH · JOH 0–2 POH · POH 4–1 JOH

Form · last six in AFC Champions League Elite

POHANG STEELERS

WLWLLL4–2 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 2–5 · 1–3

JOHOR DARUL TAKZIM FC

LWWLLD1–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ain	2	+7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	+4	6
3	Pakhtakor	3	+3	5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	2	+3	4
5	Gamba Osaka	2	+3	4
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	+2	4
7	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	+1	4
8	Kashima	1	+6	3
9	SHANGHAI SIPG	1	+2	3
10	Beijing Guoan	1	+2	3
11	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	1	+1	3
12	Jeonbuk Motors	1	+1	3
13	Vissel Kobe	1	+1	3
14	Daejeon Citizen	1	+1	3
15	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	1	+1	3
16	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−1	3
17	Neftchi	2	−1	3
18	Al-Nassr	2	−2	3
19	Al Shamal	2	0	2
20	Buriram United	1	0	1
21	Johor Darul Takzim FC	1	0	1
22	Gangwon FC	1	0	1
23	Tractor Sazi	2	−1	1
24	Kashiwa Reysol	1	−1	0
25	Port FC	1	−1	0
26	Kyoto Sanga	1	−1	0
27	Ratchaburi	1	−2	0
28	Al-Gharafa	2	−2	0
29	Pohang Steelers	1	−2	0
30	Adelaide United	1	−2	0
31	Al-Wasl FC	2	−3	0
32	Al-Jazira	1	−3	0
33	Al Hussein	1	−3	0
34	Al Sadd	1	−3	0
35	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	−4	0
36	Newcastle Jets	1	−6	0