Pakhtakor v Al-Qadisiyah FC prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 17:17

Pakhtakor 1–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC AL-QADISIYAH FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Al-Qadisiyah FC win~~51%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.879

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.027

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Qadisiyah FC win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 25–24–51
1′KICK-OFF Pakhtakor v Al-Qadisiyah FC
23′Little has changed for our model: Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 24–29–47
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Pakhtakor 0–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC
27′26′ and it is 0–1: Al-Qadisiyah FC have scored. 0–1 · 7–17–76
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Al-Qadisiyah FC win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Al-Qadisiyah FC win: 51% at kick-off, 47% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Al-Qadisiyah FC win: 51% at kick-off, 47% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Al-Qadisiyah FC win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Al-Qadisiyah FC win: 51% at kick-off, 47% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Al-Qadisiyah FC win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Pakhtakor 0–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Pakhtakor 0–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC · Tijjani Reijnders
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Pakhtakor 1–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC · Tijjani Reijnders
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Pakhtakor 1–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC · Stephen Chinedu
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Pakhtakor 0–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC · Stephen Chinedu (assist Akmal Mozgovoy)
45′HALF-TIME Pakhtakor 0–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC
46′SECOND HALF Pakhtakor 0–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Ali Badra Diabaté · Al-Qadisiyah FC
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Al-Qadisiyah FC · On: Mohammed Hamad Al-Qahtani · Off: Musab Al-Juwayr Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Al-Qadisiyah FC · On: Yasir Al-Shahrani · Off: Ali Badra Diabaté Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Pakhtakor · On: Dostonbek Khamdamov · Off: Bashar Resan
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Pakhtakor · On: Aymen Hussein · Off: Stephen Chinedu
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Pakhtakor · On: Oybek Bozorov · Off: Flamarion Jovino Filho Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al-Qadisiyah FC · On: Suleman Sani · Off: Christopher Bonsu Baah Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Pakhtakor · On: Sardor Sabirkhodjaev · Off: Morteza Pouraliganji Corrected
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Pakhtakor 1–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC · Tijjani Reijnders
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Pakhtakor 1–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC · Dostonbek Khamdamov
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Al-Qadisiyah FC · On: Abdullah Al-Salem · Off: Mateo Retegui
90′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Pakhtakor · On: Ibrokhim Ibrokhimov · Off: Akmal Mozgovoy Corrected
FTFULL TIME Pakhtakor 1–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC
FTPakhtakor 1–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC · Al-Qadisiyah FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 14:31 · locked at kick-off

Pakhtakor win24%

Draw25%

Al-Qadisiyah FC win51%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 14:45

VenuePakhtakor Markaziy Stadium

Line-ups

Pakhtakor

3-4-2-1

Al-Qadisiyah FC

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pakhtakor

Al-Qadisiyah FC

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Pakhtakor	2	+3	4
10	Al-Qadisiyah FC	1	+1	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Pakhtakor

3-4-2-1

12 Vladimir Nazarov

55 Muhammadrasul Abdumajidov

5 Morteza Pouraliganji

4 Zaid Tahseen

7 Khozhiakbar Alizhonov

23 Abdurauf Buriev

10 Akmal Mozgovoy

34 Sherzod Nasrullaev

50 Giovino Flamarion

21 Bashar Resan

90 Stephen Chinedu

Coach · Kamoliddin Tadzhiev

Substitutes

77 · Oybek Bozorov

17 · Dostonbek Khamdamov

29 · Aymen Hussein

27 · Sardor Sobirkhuzhaev

9 · Ibrokhim Ibrokhimov

99 · Maksim Murkaev

35 · Sandzhar Kuvvatov

16 · Miraziz Abdukarimov

22 · Mukhammad-Bobur Karimov

20 · Dilshod Abdullaev

8 · Dilshod Saitov

6 · Sardor Mirqobilov

Al-Qadisiyah FC

3-5-2

1 Koen Casteels

4 Jehad Thakri

17 Gastón Álvarez

26 Ali Diabaté

8 Nahitan Nández

14 Tijjani Reijnders

5 Julian Weigl

10 Musab Al Juwayr

22 Christopher Baah

33 Julián Quiñones

32 Mateo Retegui

Coach · Brendan Rodgers

Substitutes

12 · Yasser Al-Shahrani

15 · Mohammed Hamad Al-Qahtani

70 · Sani Suleiman

9 · Abdullah Al-Salem

50 · Mshari Sanyoor

28 · Ahmed Al-Kassar

35 · Ahmed Al Siyahi

27 · Eyad Houssa

18 · Abdulmalik Al-Jaber

7 · Turki Al Ammar

30 · Mahamadou Sangare

Our number · al-qadisiyah fc winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 14:31 · locked at kick-off

51% The market62%

Us51%

~~Market~~62%

We make Al-Qadisiyah FC a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al-qadisiyah fc win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 51% now. The market has gone from 61% to 62% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pakhtakor win	24%	17%	+8
Draw	25%	22%	+3
Al-Qadisiyah FC win	51%	62%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	52%	57%	−5
Both teams to score	54%	54%	0
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	37%	−7
Pakhtakor or draw	49%	38%	+11
Pakhtakor clean sheet	19%	–	–
Al-Qadisiyah FC clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.7 10.2 8.9 5.0 2.1 1 6.5 11.9 9.6 5.4 2.3 2 3.7 6.2 5.2 2.9 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pakhtakor down, Al-Qadisiyah FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,935 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 12 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Pakhtakor play in the Super League, Al-Qadisiyah FC in the Pro League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Pakhtakor are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting in this competition in our records, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Pakhtakor, 1.67 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 14:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meeting of these two in AFC Champions League Elite since 2021 in our records. Only this competition's matches are held here: cup ties and meetings in other leagues are not, and we say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in AFC Champions League Elite

PAKHTAKOR

LWWLWD0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 3–0 · 1–1

AL-QADISIYAH FC

W2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Ittihad FC	2	+3	4
2	Gamba Osaka	2	+3	4
3	Pakhtakor	2	+3	4
4	Kashima	1	+6	3
5	Al Ain	1	+4	3
6	Esteghlal FC	1	+3	3
7	SHANGHAI SIPG	1	+2	3
8	Beijing Guoan	1	+2	3
9	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	1	+1	3
10	Al-Qadisiyah FC	1	+1	3
11	Jeonbuk Motors	1	+1	3
12	Vissel Kobe	1	+1	3
13	Daejeon Citizen	1	+1	3
14	Neftchi	1	+1	3
15	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	1	+1	3
16	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−1	3
17	Al Shamal	1	0	1
18	Al-Ahli Jeddah	1	0	1
19	Buriram United	1	0	1
20	Johor Darul Takzim FC	1	0	1
21	Gangwon FC	1	0	1
22	Al-Gharafa	1	−1	0
23	Al-Wasl FC	1	−1	0
24	Kashiwa Reysol	1	−1	0
25	Port FC	1	−1	0
26	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1	−1	0
27	Kyoto Sanga	1	−1	0
28	Tractor Sazi	1	−1	0
29	Ratchaburi	1	−2	0
30	Pohang Steelers	1	−2	0
31	Adelaide United	1	−2	0
32	Al-Jazira	1	−3	0
33	Al Hussein	1	−3	0
34	Al Sadd	1	−3	0
35	Al-Nassr	1	−4	0
36	Newcastle Jets	1	−6	0