Newcastle Jets v Gamba Osaka prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 11:18

Newcastle Jets 1–3 Gamba Osaka GAMBA OSAKA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gamba Osaka win~~43%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.492

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.288

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gamba Osaka win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Gamba Osaka 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 34–23–43
1′KICK-OFF Newcastle Jets v Gamba Osaka
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Newcastle Jets 0–0 Gamba Osaka
13′11′ and it is 0–0: Gamba Osaka have scored. 0–0 · 33–25–42
20′Gamba Osaka have had 7.0 attempts to 1.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 33–26–41
26′8.0 shots for Gamba Osaka, 2.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 32–27–40
32′32′ and it is 1–0: Newcastle Jets have scored. 1–0 · 61–23–16
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Newcastle Jets 1–0 Gamba Osaka
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Gamba Osaka win: 43% at kick-off, 16% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Newcastle Jets win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Gamba Osaka win 16%)
34′We said Gamba Osaka at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 61–23–16
36′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 62–23–15
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Newcastle Jets 1–1 Gamba Osaka · Nikos Vergos
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Newcastle Jets 1–1 Gamba Osaka · Yusei Toshida
45′HALF-TIME Newcastle Jets 1–1 Gamba Osaka
46′SECOND HALF Newcastle Jets 1–1 Gamba Osaka
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Newcastle Jets · On: Joe Lolley · Off: Xavier Bertoncello
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Newcastle Jets 2–1 Gamba Osaka · Yusei Toshida
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Tokuma Suzuki · Gamba Osaka
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Newcastle Jets · On: Patrick Wood · Off: Will Dobson Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Newcastle Jets · On: Ethan Debono · Off: Nikos Vergos Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Gamba Osaka · On: Welton · Off: Ryotaro Meshino
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Gamba Osaka · On: Deniz Hümmet · Off: Yusei Toshida
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Newcastle Jets 1–2 Gamba Osaka · Yusei Toshida
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Newcastle Jets 1–2 Gamba Osaka · Deniz Hümmet (assist Eli Adams)
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Gamba Osaka · On: Rin Mito · Off: Tokuma Suzuki
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Newcastle Jets · On: Julian Recchia · Off: Zach Clough
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Newcastle Jets 1–3 Gamba Osaka · Deniz Hümmet
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Patrick Wood · Newcastle Jets
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Newcastle Jets 1–3 Gamba Osaka · Welton
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Ethan Debono · Newcastle Jets
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Gamba Osaka · On: Shu Kurata · Off: Shuto Abe
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Gamba Osaka · On: Takashi Usami · Off: Issam Jebali
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Takeru Kishimoto · Gamba Osaka
FTFULL TIME Newcastle Jets 1–3 Gamba Osaka
FTNewcastle Jets 1–3 Gamba Osaka · Gamba Osaka win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 08:18 · locked at kick-off

Newcastle Jets win34%

Draw23%

Gamba Osaka win43%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 08:45

VenueMcDonald Jones Stadium

Line-ups

Newcastle Jets

4-1-4-1

Gamba Osaka

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Newcastle Jets

Gamba Osaka

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Gamba Osaka	2	+3	4
36	Newcastle Jets	1	−6	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Newcastle Jets

4-1-4-1

1 J. Delianov

22 J. Bertolissio

5 J. Shaughnessy

39 T. Aquilina

23 D. Wilmering

14 M. Burgess

28 W. Dobson

6 Z. Schreiber

10 Z. Clough

43 X. Bertoncello

9 N. Vergos

Coach · Mark Milligan

Substitutes

40 · J. Baylis

2 · A. Grant

61 · A. Reid

52 · N. Badolato

24 · A. Nunes

27 · J. Recchia

11 · J. Lolley

8 · P. Wood

46 · E. Debono

54 · J. Goodwin

64 · J. Hill

65 · K. Walshe

Gamba Osaka

4-2-3-1

22 J. Ichimori

15 T. Kishimoto

4 S. Nakatani

2 S. Fukuoka

47 S. Nakano

13 S. Abe

16 T. Suzuki

20 E. Adams

11 I. Jebali

8 R. Meshino

41 Y. Toshida

Coach · Tomokazu Myojin

Substitutes

1 · M. Higashiguchi

31 · A. Zhang

21 · R. Hatsuse

67 · S. Sasaki

28 · S. Fujiwara

27 · R. Mito

10 · S. Kurata

97 · Welton

7 · T. Usami

23 · D. Hummet

17 · R. Yamashita

Our number · gamba osaka winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 08:18 · locked at kick-off

43% The market56%

Us43%

~~Market~~56%

We make Gamba Osaka a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gamba osaka win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Newcastle Jets win	34%	22%	+11
Draw	23%	21%	+2
Gamba Osaka win	43%	56%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	66%	68%	−2
Both teams to score	67%	66%	0
Over 1.5 goals	86%	85%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	44%	49%	−5
Newcastle Jets or draw	57%	44%	+13
Newcastle Jets clean sheet	16%	–	–
Gamba Osaka clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 3.7 5.8 5.5 3.3 1 5.0 9.9 8.7 5.2 2.4 2 4.2 7.6 6.9 4.2 3 2.2 4.0 3.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Newcastle Jets down, Gamba Osaka across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Newcastle Jets play in the A-League, Gamba Osaka in the J1 League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Newcastle Jets are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Newcastle Jets, 1.81 for Gamba Osaka. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 08:18. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in AFC Champions League Elite since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in AFC Champions League Elite

NEWCASTLE JETS

L1–7

GAMBA OSAKA

DDWLDW1–1 · 1–1 · 8–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ain	2	+7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	+4	6
3	Pakhtakor	3	+3	5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	2	+3	4
5	Gamba Osaka	2	+3	4
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	+2	4
7	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	+1	4
8	Kashima	1	+6	3
9	SHANGHAI SIPG	1	+2	3
10	Beijing Guoan	1	+2	3
11	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	1	+1	3
12	Jeonbuk Motors	1	+1	3
13	Vissel Kobe	1	+1	3
14	Daejeon Citizen	1	+1	3
15	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	1	+1	3
16	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−1	3
17	Neftchi	2	−1	3
18	Al-Nassr	2	−2	3
19	Al Shamal	2	0	2
20	Buriram United	1	0	1
21	Johor Darul Takzim FC	1	0	1
22	Gangwon FC	1	0	1
23	Tractor Sazi	2	−1	1
24	Kashiwa Reysol	1	−1	0
25	Port FC	1	−1	0
26	Kyoto Sanga	1	−1	0
27	Ratchaburi	1	−2	0
28	Al-Gharafa	2	−2	0
29	Pohang Steelers	1	−2	0
30	Adelaide United	1	−2	0
31	Al-Wasl FC	2	−3	0
32	Al-Jazira	1	−3	0
33	Al Hussein	1	−3	0
34	Al Sadd	1	−3	0
35	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	−4	0
36	Newcastle Jets	1	−6	0