Neftchi v Al-Ittihad FC prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NeftchiDrawAl-Ittihad FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Al-Ittihad FC 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Ittihad FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Neftchi 30%, draw 25%, Al-Ittihad FC 45%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Neftchi v Al-Ittihad FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Neftchi win30%

Draw25%

Al-Ittihad FC win45%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 13:45

RoundLeague phase · matchday 3

VenueIstiqlol Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Neftchi

Al-Ittihad FC

3Days since last match3

Last match: 23 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)

Last match: 23 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Neftchi	2	−1	3
11	Al-Ittihad FC	2	−1	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-ittihad fc winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:26 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Al-Ittihad FC a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Neftchi v Al-Ittihad FC~~1.28 – 1.62

~~Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 11 Aug~~W1 D0 L1 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 1~~7 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Ittihad FC win

Published at 43%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Neftchi win	30%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Al-Ittihad FC win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Neftchi or draw	55%	–	–
Neftchi clean sheet	20%	–	–
Al-Ittihad FC clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 5.9 8.6 7.2 3.9 1 6.7 11.8 9.2 5.0 2.0 2 4.5 7.3 5.9 3.2 3 3.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Neftchi down, Al-Ittihad FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 409,758 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 24 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Neftchi play in Super League (Uzbekistan), Al-Ittihad FC in the Saudi Pro League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Neftchi are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022.

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Neftchi, 1.62 for Al-Ittihad FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 11 Aug

NEFTCHI

WL1–0 · 1–3

AL-ITTIHAD FC

WDL4–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27 · West Region

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ain	2	+7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	+4	6
3	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	2	+3	6
4	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	2	+2	6
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	+2	4
6	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	+1	4
7	Neftchi	2	−1	3
8	Al-Nassr	2	−2	3
9	Pakhtakor	2	0	2
10	Al Shamal	2	0	2
11	Al-Ittihad FC	2	−1	1
12	Tractor Sazi	2	−1	1
13	Al-Gharafa	2	−2	0
14	Al-Wasl FC	2	−3	0
15	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	−4	0
16	Al Sadd	2	−5	0