Kyoto Sanga v Ratchaburi prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 13:47

Kyoto Sanga 1–0 Ratchaburi KYOTO SANGA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kyoto Sanga win~~65%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.186

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.151

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kyoto Sanga win at 65%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kyoto Sanga was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–20–15
1′KICK-OFF Kyoto Sanga v Ratchaburi
12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Jesse Curran · Ratchaburi
16′SUBSTITUTION · 15' Kyoto Sanga · On: Ryuma Nakano · Off: Ren Kato
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Kyoto Sanga win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
39′We said Kyoto Sanga at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 53–30–16
45′SUBSTITUTION · 44' Ratchaburi · On: Daniel Ting · Off: Pablo Insua
45′HALF-TIME Kyoto Sanga 0–0 Ratchaburi
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kyoto Sanga · On: Shimpei Fukuoka · Off: Thiago Sousa Lima Corrected
46′SECOND HALF Kyoto Sanga 0–0 Ratchaburi
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Kyoto Sanga · On: Alex Souza · Off: Everton Maceió Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Kyoto Sanga · On: Temma Matsuda · Off: Marco Túlio
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ratchaburi · On: Chotipat Poomkaew · Off: Bruno Mendes
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Roque Mesa · Ratchaburi
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Kyoto Sanga 1–0 Ratchaburi
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Kyoto Sanga 1–0 Ratchaburi · Temma Matsuda (assist Haruki Arai)
90′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Kyoto Sanga · On: Kodai Nagata · Off: Takaaki Shichi Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 98' Ratchaburi · On: Thossawat Limwannasthian · Off: Roque Mesa Corrected
FTFULL TIME Kyoto Sanga 1–0 Ratchaburi
FTKyoto Sanga 1–0 Ratchaburi · Kyoto Sanga win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 10:20 · locked at kick-off

Kyoto Sanga win65%

Draw20%

Ratchaburi win15%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 11:00

VenueSanga Stadium by Kyocera

RefereeQasim Matar Ali Al-Hatmi

Line-ups

Kyoto Sanga

3-4-3

Ratchaburi

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Kyoto Sanga

Ratchaburi

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
26	Kyoto Sanga	1	−1	0
27	Ratchaburi	1	−2	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kyoto Sanga

3-4-3

90 Halls

5 Hisashi Appiah Tawiah

43 Weverton

62 Takaaki Shichi

26 Ren Kato

14 Thiago

25 Sung-jun Yoon

44 Kyo Sato

77 Haruki Arai

38 Maceió

11 Marco Túlio

Coach · –

Substitutes

48 · Ryuma Nakano

10 · Shimpei Fukuoka

17 · Alex Souza

18 · Temma Matsuda

15 · Kodai Nagata

1 · Gakuji Ota

21 · Kentaro Kakoi

50 · Yoshinori Suzuki

40 · Yusuke Ishida

19 · David

29 · Kou Sakai

Ratchaburi

4-2-3-1

99 Kampol Pathomakkakul

27 Jesse Curran

3 Tarek Aggoun

44 Pablo Insua

31 Sai Van Wermeskerken

16 Roque Mesa

8 Thanawat Suengchitthawon

92 Njiva Rakotoharimalala

6 Pedro Dominguez Placeres

21 Ekanit Panya

9 Bruno Mendes

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · Daniel Ting

88 · Chotipat Poomkaew

28 · Thossawat Limwannasthian

97 · Ukrit Wongmeema

15 · Adisorn Promrak

20 · Sanchai Nonthasila

48 · Scott Allardice

Our number · kyoto sanga winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 10:20 · locked at kick-off

65% The market69%

Us65%

~~Market~~69%

We make Kyoto Sanga a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kyoto sanga win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 65% now. The market has gone from 77% to 69% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kyoto Sanga win	65%	69%	−4
Draw	20%	19%	+1
Ratchaburi win	15%	12%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	61%	57%	+4
Both teams to score	55%	49%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	82%	78%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	38%	36%	+2
Kyoto Sanga or draw	85%	88%	−3
Kyoto Sanga clean sheet	38%	–	–
Ratchaburi clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.3%

0123450 4.6 3.9 1 9.2 9.4 4.3 2 10.3 9.9 4.7 3 7.5 7.2 3.4 4 4.1 3.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kyoto Sanga down, Ratchaburi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Kyoto Sanga play in the J1 League, Ratchaburi in the Thai League 1.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Kyoto Sanga are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

2.18 goals for Kyoto Sanga, 0.96 for Ratchaburi. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in AFC Champions League Elite since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in AFC Champions League Elite

KYOTO SANGA

L0–1

RATCHABURI

LLLDDL0–1 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 4–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ain	2	+7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	+4	6
3	Pakhtakor	3	+3	5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	2	+3	4
5	Gamba Osaka	2	+3	4
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	+2	4
7	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	+1	4
8	Kashima	1	+6	3
9	SHANGHAI SIPG	1	+2	3
10	Beijing Guoan	1	+2	3
11	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	1	+1	3
12	Jeonbuk Motors	1	+1	3
13	Vissel Kobe	1	+1	3
14	Daejeon Citizen	1	+1	3
15	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	1	+1	3
16	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−1	3
17	Neftchi	2	−1	3
18	Al-Nassr	2	−2	3
19	Al Shamal	2	0	2
20	Buriram United	1	0	1
21	Johor Darul Takzim FC	1	0	1
22	Gangwon FC	1	0	1
23	Tractor Sazi	2	−1	1
24	Kashiwa Reysol	1	−1	0
25	Port FC	1	−1	0
26	Kyoto Sanga	1	−1	0
27	Ratchaburi	1	−2	0
28	Al-Gharafa	2	−2	0
29	Pohang Steelers	1	−2	0
30	Adelaide United	1	−2	0
31	Al-Wasl FC	2	−3	0
32	Al-Jazira	1	−3	0
33	Al Hussein	1	−3	0
34	Al Sadd	1	−3	0
35	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	−4	0
36	Newcastle Jets	1	−6	0