Kashiwa Reysol v Port FC prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 13:53

Kashiwa Reysol 5–1 Port FC KASHIWA REYSOL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kashiwa Reysol win~~72%

~~The market said~~81%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.117

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.054

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kashiwa Reysol win at 72%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kashiwa Reysol 72% before kick-off, 72% now. 0–0 · 72–16–12
1′KICK-OFF Kashiwa Reysol v Port FC
3′A goal for Kashiwa Reysol on 3′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 72–17–12
7′We said Kashiwa Reysol at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–8–4
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Kashiwa Reysol 1–0 Port FC
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Kashiwa Reysol win: 72% at kick-off, 88% now
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Kashiwa Reysol 2–0 Port FC · Tojiro Kubo
11′10′ and it is 2–0: Yuki Kakita on the scoresheet for Kashiwa Reysol. 2–0 · 96–3–1
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Kashiwa Reysol win: 72% at kick-off, 96% now
12′We said Kashiwa Reysol at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Kashiwa Reysol 3–0 Port FC · Yuki Kakita
16′Kashiwa Reysol ahead on 15′ through Riki Harakawa. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
26′Koya Yuruki scores for Kashiwa Reysol on 26′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Kashiwa Reysol 4–0 Port FC · Koya Yuruki
27′We said Kashiwa Reysol at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Kashiwa Reysol 5–0 Port FC · Koya Yuruki
29′28′ and it is 5–0: Hinata Yamauchi on the scoresheet for Kashiwa Reysol. 5–0 · 100–0–0
30′5 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Kashiwa Reysol 5–0 Port FC
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kashiwa Reysol · On: Yudai Konishi · Off: Nobuteru Nakagawa
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Port FC · On: Jakkaphan Kaewprom · Off: Rui Costa
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kashiwa Reysol · On: Tomoya Inukai · Off: Taiyo Koga
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Port FC · On: Peerawat Akkratum · Off: Suphanan Bureerat
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Port FC · On: Jude Soonsup-Bell · Off: Essam Al-Subhi
46′SECOND HALF Kashiwa Reysol 5–0 Port FC
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kashiwa Reysol · On: Kaiji Chonan · Off: Tojiro Kubo
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Port FC · On: Seksan Ratree · Off: Peeradol Chamrasamee
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Kashiwa Reysol · On: Yusei Yamanouchi · Off: Wataru Harada
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Kashiwa Reysol 5–1 Port FC
65′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
66′Port FC pull one back on 65′ through Manuel Bihr. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
67′Port FC pull one back on 64′ through Manuel Bihr. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Port FC · On: Ruan Ribeiro Rodrigues · Off: Teerasak Poeiphimai
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Kashiwa Reysol · On: Yusuke Segawa · Off: Hinata Yamauchi
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Yusei Yamanouchi · Kashiwa Reysol
FTFULL TIME Kashiwa Reysol 5–1 Port FC
FTKashiwa Reysol 5–1 Port FC · Kashiwa Reysol win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Kashiwa Reysol v Port FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 10:14 · locked at kick-off

Kashiwa Reysol win72%

Draw16%

Port FC win11%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 11:00

VenueSankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium

Line-ups

Kashiwa Reysol

3-4-2-1

Port FC

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Kashiwa Reysol

Port FC

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Kashiwa Reysol	1	-1	0
12	Port FC	1	-1	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kashiwa Reysol

3-4-2-1

29 K. Nagai

42 W. Harada

4 T. Koga

2 H. Mitsumaru

24 T. Kubo

39 N. Nakagawa

40 R. Harakawa

44 K. Yuba

87 H. Yamauchi

16 K. Yuruki

18 Y. Kakita

Coach · Ricardo Rodriguez

Substitutes

63 · Y. Kaneko

13 · T. Inukai

26 · D. Sugioka

32 · Y. Yamanouchi

21 · Y. Konishi

8 · Y. Koizumi

43 · Y. Kamo

33 · S. Iwanaga

23 · K. Chonan

20 · Y. Segawa

9 · M. Hosoya

15 · S. Fujio

Port FC

4-4-2

93 M. Falkesgaard

4 S. Bureerat

28 E. Sviatchenko

15 M. Bihr

25 C. Otton

19 R. Costa

33 N. Shimura

5 P. Chamratsamee

11 Bruno

14 T. Poeiphimai

7 I. Al Sabhi

Coach · Bozidar Bandovic

Substitutes

1 · S. Yos

40 · R. Kemmueang

20 · Marcel Scalese

36 · P. Akkratum

24 · J. Kaewprom

22 · W. Kanitsribampen

47 · S. Boonlha

17 · S. Ratree

9 · Ruan Ribeiro

10 · B. Phala

18 · J. Soonsup-Bell

Our number · kashiwa reysol winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 10:14 · locked at kick-off

72% The market81%

Us72%

~~Market~~81%

We make Kashiwa Reysol a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 81%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kashiwa Reysol v Port FC~~2.56 – 0.93

~~Last six in AFC Champions League Elite~~W0 D0 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~11 v 12

~~The market · Kashiwa Reysol win~~81% · ours 72%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kashiwa reysol win The market, margin stripped

Published at 69%, 72% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 81% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kashiwa Reysol win	72%	81%	−9
Draw	16%	11%	+5
Port FC win	11%	7%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	68%	74%	−6
Both teams to score	56%	50%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	87%	88%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	46%	56%	−10
Kashiwa Reysol or draw	89%	93%	−4
Kashiwa Reysol clean sheet	39%	–	–
Port FC clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.0%

0123450 3.3 2.6 1 7.5 7.5 3.4 2 10.0 9.3 4.3 3 8.5 7.9 3.7 4 5.4 5.1 2.4 5 2.8 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Kashiwa Reysol down, Port FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Kashiwa Reysol play in the J1 League, Port FC in the Thai League 1.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Kashiwa Reysol are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

2.56 goals for Kashiwa Reysol, 0.93 for Port FC. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in AFC Champions League Elite since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in AFC Champions League Elite

KASHIWA REYSOL

L1–2

PORT FC

LDWLLL0–3 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kashima	2	7	6
2	Gamba Osaka	2	5	6
3	Beijing Guoan	2	3	6
4	SHANGHAI SIPG	2	2	4
5	Johor Darul Takzim FC	2	2	4
6	Daejeon Citizen	2	1	4
7	Vissel Kobe	1	1	3
8	Jeonbuk Motors	1	1	3
9	Kyoto Sanga	2	0	3
10	Buriram United	2	-1	1
11	Kashiwa Reysol	1	-1	0
12	Port FC	1	-1	0
13	Ratchaburi	2	-3	0
14	Công An Nhân Dân	2	-4	0
15	Pohang Steelers	2	-4	0
16	Newcastle Jets	2	-8	0