Kashima v Pohang Steelers prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KashimaDrawPohang Steelers

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kashima 73%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kashima are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kashima 73%, draw 18%, Pohang Steelers 9%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Kashima v Pohang SteelersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Kashima win73%

Draw18%

Pohang Steelers win9%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 10:00

RoundLeague phase · matchday 3

VenueMercari Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kashima

Pohang Steelers

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · J1 League

Last match: 24 Oct · K League 1

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kashima winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

73% The market–

Us73%

We make Kashima a 73% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.6, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kashima v Pohang Steelers~~2.17 – 0.60

~~Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 15 Sept~~W2 D0 L0 · W0 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 0~~1 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kashima win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kashima win	73%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Pohang Steelers win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Kashima or draw	91%	–	–
Kashima clean sheet	55%	–	–
Pohang Steelers clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 14.7%

0123450 6.5 3.5 1 13.3 8.4 2.5 2 14.7 8.9 2.7 3 10.6 6.4 4 5.8 3.5 5 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kashima down, Pohang Steelers across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,565 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 23 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Kashima play in J1 League, Pohang Steelers in K League 1.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Kashima are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022.

What the model expects

2.17 goals for Kashima, 0.60 for Pohang Steelers. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 15 Sept

KASHIMA

WW7–1 · 1–0

POHANG STEELERS

LL1–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27 · East Region

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kashima	2	+7	6
2	Gamba Osaka	2	+5	6
3	Vissel Kobe	2	+3	6
4	Beijing Guoan	2	+3	6
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	2	+2	4
6	Johor Darul Takzim FC	2	+2	4
7	Daejeon Citizen	2	+1	4
8	Kashiwa Reysol	2	+3	3
9	Kyoto Sanga	2	0	3
10	Jeonbuk Motors	2	−1	3
11	Buriram United	2	−1	1
12	Ratchaburi	2	−3	0
13	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−4	0
14	Pohang Steelers	2	−4	0
15	Port FC	2	−5	0
16	Newcastle Jets	2	−8	0