Gamba Osaka v Buriram United prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Gamba OsakaDrawBuriram United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Gamba Osaka 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gamba Osaka are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gamba Osaka 52%, draw 24%, Buriram United 24%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Gamba Osaka v Buriram UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Gamba Osaka win52%

Draw24%

Buriram United win24%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 10:00

RoundLeague phase · matchday 3

VenuePanasonic Stadium Suita

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gamba Osaka

Buriram United

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · J1 League

Last match: 24 Oct · Thai League 1

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Gamba Osaka	2	+5	6
11	Buriram United	2	−1	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gamba osaka winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Gamba Osaka a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gamba Osaka v Buriram United~~1.75 – 1.11

~~Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 11 Aug~~W2 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 1~~2 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gamba Osaka win	52%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Buriram United win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Gamba Osaka or draw	76%	–	–
Gamba Osaka clean sheet	33%	–	–
Buriram United clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.1 6.0 3.5 1 9.7 11.5 6.2 2.3 2 8.8 9.7 5.4 3 5.1 5.7 3.2 4 2.2 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gamba Osaka down, Buriram United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,565 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 23 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Gamba Osaka play in J1 League, Buriram United in Thai League 1.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Gamba Osaka are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022.

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Gamba Osaka, 1.11 for Buriram United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 11 Aug

GAMBA OSAKA

DWW0–0 · 4–1 · 3–1

BURIRAM UNITED

DL1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27 · East Region

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kashima	2	+7	6
2	Gamba Osaka	2	+5	6
3	Vissel Kobe	2	+3	6
4	Beijing Guoan	2	+3	6
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	2	+2	4
6	Johor Darul Takzim FC	2	+2	4
7	Daejeon Citizen	2	+1	4
8	Kashiwa Reysol	2	+3	3
9	Kyoto Sanga	2	0	3
10	Jeonbuk Motors	2	−1	3
11	Buriram United	2	−1	1
12	Ratchaburi	2	−3	0
13	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−4	0
14	Pohang Steelers	2	−4	0
15	Port FC	2	−5	0
16	Newcastle Jets	2	−8	0