Công An Nhân Dân v Kashima prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 15:45

Công An Nhân Dân 0–1 Kashima KASHIMA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kashima win~~53%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.328

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.172

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kashima win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kashima was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 23–23–53
1′KICK-OFF Công An Nhân Dân v Kashima
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Matheus Bueno · Kashima
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Stefan Mauk · Công An Nhân Dân
26′7.0 shots for Công An Nhân Dân, 2.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 23–29–48
45′HALF-TIME Công An Nhân Dân 0–0 Kashima
46′SECOND HALF Công An Nhân Dân 0–0 Kashima
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kashima · On: Gaku Shibasaki · Off: Matheus Bueno Corrected
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Nguyen Quang Hai · Công An Nhân Dân
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Công An Nhân Dân · On: Alan Grafite · Off: Brayan Perea Corrected
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Công An Nhân Dân · On: Damià Sabater Tous · Off: Le Pham Thanh Long Corrected
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Công An Nhân Dân 0–1 Kashima
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Công An Nhân Dân 0–1 Kashima · Leygley Adou Minh
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Doan Van Hau · Công An Nhân Dân
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Kashima · On: Aleksandar Čavrić · Off: José Élber Pimentel da Silva Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Công An Nhân Dân · On: Dinh Thanh Binh · Off: Stefan Mauk Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Công An Nhân Dân · On: Hoang Van Toan · Off: Nguyen Quang Hai
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Kashima · On: Minato Yoshida · Off: Léo Ceará Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Kashima · On: Sho Omori · Off: Ryoya Ogawa Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Công An Nhân Dân · On: Phan Ngoc Tin · Off: Bui Hoang Viet Anh Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Kashima · On: Homare Tokuda · Off: Yuma Suzuki Corrected
FTFULL TIME Công An Nhân Dân 0–1 Kashima
FTCông An Nhân Dân 0–1 Kashima · Kashima win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off

Công An Nhân Dân win23%

Draw24%

Kashima win53%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 13:15

VenueHang Day Stadium

Line-ups

Công An Nhân Dân

4-1-3-2

Kashima

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Công An Nhân Dân

Kashima

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Kashima	1	+6	3
16	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−1	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Công An Nhân Dân

4-1-3-2

1 F. Nguyen

38 L. Adou

68 Bui Hoang Viet Anh

5 Doan Van Hau

7 J. Pendant

6 S. Mauk

19 Nguyen Quang Hai

11 Le Pham Thanh Long

9 Nguyen Dinh Bac

90 B. Perea

10 Leo Artur

Coach · Alexandre Polking

Substitutes

23 · Vu Thanh Vinh

4 · N. T. Phan

14 · D. Sabater

15 · Bui Xuan Thinh

12 · Hoang Van Toan

18 · Dinh Thanh Binh

72 · Alan Grafite

Kashima

4-4-2

1 T. Hayakawa

23 K. Tsukui

55 N. Ueda

3 Kim Tae-Hyeon

7 R. Ogawa

27 Y. Matsumura

6 K. Misao

8 Matheus Bueno

17 Elber

40 Y. Suzuki

9 Leo Ceara

Coach · Toru Oniki

Substitutes

21 · T. Yamada

29 · Y. Kajikawa

5 · I. Sekigawa

4 · K. Chida

19 · S. Omori

28 · Y. Okawa

35 · A. Motosuna

10 · G. Shibasaki

24 · H. Hayashu

77 · A. Cavric

34 · H. Tokuda

30 · M. Yoshida

Our number · kashima winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off

53% The market66%

Us53%

~~Market~~66%

We make Kashima a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kashima win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Công An Nhân Dân win	23%	15%	+8
Draw	24%	19%	+5
Kashima win	53%	66%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	55%	61%	−6
Both teams to score	55%	54%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	40%	−8
Công An Nhân Dân or draw	47%	34%	+13
Công An Nhân Dân clean sheet	17%	–	–
Kashima clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.0 9.8 9.0 5.3 2.4 1 5.8 11.4 9.8 5.8 2.6 2 3.4 6.0 5.3 3.2 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Công An Nhân Dân down, Kashima across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Công An Nhân Dân play in the V.League 1, Kashima in the J1 League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Công An Nhân Dân are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Công An Nhân Dân, 1.78 for Kashima. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in AFC Champions League Elite since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in AFC Champions League Elite

CÔNG AN NHÂN DÂN

WL2–0 · 1–4

KASHIMA

W7–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ain	2	+7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	+4	6
3	Pakhtakor	3	+3	5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	2	+3	4
5	Gamba Osaka	2	+3	4
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	+2	4
7	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	+1	4
8	Kashima	1	+6	3
9	SHANGHAI SIPG	1	+2	3
10	Beijing Guoan	1	+2	3
11	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	1	+1	3
12	Jeonbuk Motors	1	+1	3
13	Vissel Kobe	1	+1	3
14	Daejeon Citizen	1	+1	3
15	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	1	+1	3
16	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−1	3
17	Neftchi	2	−1	3
18	Al-Nassr	2	−2	3
19	Al Shamal	2	0	2
20	Buriram United	1	0	1
21	Johor Darul Takzim FC	1	0	1
22	Gangwon FC	1	0	1
23	Tractor Sazi	2	−1	1
24	Kashiwa Reysol	1	−1	0
25	Port FC	1	−1	0
26	Kyoto Sanga	1	−1	0
27	Ratchaburi	1	−2	0
28	Al-Gharafa	2	−2	0
29	Pohang Steelers	1	−2	0
30	Adelaide United	1	−2	0
31	Al-Wasl FC	2	−3	0
32	Al-Jazira	1	−3	0
33	Al Hussein	1	−3	0
34	Al Sadd	1	−3	0
35	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	−4	0
36	Newcastle Jets	1	−6	0