Buriram United v Beijing Guoan prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 15:45

Buriram United 0–1 Beijing Guoan BURIRAM UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Buriram United win~~54%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.928

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.798

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Buriram United win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Buriram United 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–22–24
1′KICK-OFF Buriram United v Beijing Guoan
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Paulinho · Buriram United
45′HALF-TIME Buriram United 0–0 Beijing Guoan
45′SECOND HALF Buriram United 0–0 Beijing Guoan
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Bai Yang · Beijing Guoan
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Beijing Guoan · On: Lin Liangming · Off: Zhang Xizhe
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Beijing Guoan · On: Fabio Abreu · Off: Chadrac Akolo
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Beijing Guoan · On: Sai Erjini'ao · Off: Jeremy Dudziak
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Buriram United · On: Kingsley Schindler · Off: Lucas Ahijado
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Buriram United · On: Stefan Schimmer · Off: Supachai Chaided
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Buriram United · On: Thanakrit Chotmuangpak · Off: Paulinho
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Guilherme Ramos · Beijing Guoan
79′⚽ GOAL · 80' Buriram United 0–0 Beijing Guoan · Fabio Abreu
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Buriram United 0–1 Beijing Guoan · Fabio Abreu
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Beijing Guoan · On: Yang Liyu · Off: Yue Tze-Nam Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Buriram United · On: Sasalak Haiprakhon · Off: Wanderson de Jesus Martins Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Buriram United · On: Alexandru Tudorie · Off: Toni Moya
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Sai Erjini'ao · Beijing Guoan
FTFULL TIME Buriram United 0–1 Beijing Guoan
FTBuriram United 0–1 Beijing Guoan · Buriram United win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off

Buriram United win54%

Draw22%

Beijing Guoan win24%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 13:15

VenueChang Arena

RefereeAlireza Faghani

Line-ups

Buriram United

4-2-3-1

Beijing Guoan

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Buriram United

Beijing Guoan

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Beijing Guoan	1	+2	3
20	Buriram United	1	0	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Buriram United

4-2-3-1

13 Neil Etheridge

17 Lucas Ahijado

5 Nathan Cardoso

6 Curtis Good

31 Cajú

20 Toni Moya

27 Phitiwat Sukjitthammakul

9 Supachai Chaided

8 Paulinho

10 Sebas Moyano

7 Guilherme Bissoli

Coach · –

Substitutes

19 · Kingsley Schindler

33 · Thanakrit Chotmuangpak

30 · Stefan Schimmer

2 · Sasalak Haiprakhon

99 · Alexandru Tudorie

34 · Chatchai Bootprom

40 · Eduardo Mancha

55 · Theerathon Bunmathan

18 · Vukan Savićević

Beijing Guoan

4-4-2

34 Hou Sen

21 Tze-Nam Yue

27 Gang Wang

5 Guilherme Ramos

26 Yang Bai

28 Jeremy Dudziak

23 Dawhan

8 Aboubacar Konte

10 Zhang Xizhe

20 Béni Nkololo

77 Chadrac Akolo

Coach · –

Substitutes

11 · Lin Liangming

7 · Sai Erjini'ao

29 · Fabio Abreu

17 · Yang Liyu

22 · Han Jiaqi

31 · Shaoziyang Liu

24 · Abdugheni Abduhamit

4 · Li Lei

30 · Shuangjie Fan

47 · Deng Jiefu

6 · Chi Zhongguo

Our number · buriram united winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off

54% The market46%

Us54%

~~Market~~46%

We make Buriram United a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · buriram united win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Buriram United win	54%	46%	+8
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Beijing Guoan win	24%	28%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	64%	56%	+8
Both teams to score	63%	59%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	78%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	42%	35%	+7
Buriram United or draw	76%	72%	+4
Buriram United clean sheet	28%	–	–
Beijing Guoan clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.0 4.4 3.0 1 7.1 9.8 6.1 2.6 2 7.5 9.6 6.2 2.6 3 5.1 6.5 4.2 4 2.6 3.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Buriram United down, Beijing Guoan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Buriram United play in the Thai League 1, Beijing Guoan in the Super League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Buriram United are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

2.02 goals for Buriram United, 1.28 for Beijing Guoan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in AFC Champions League Elite since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in AFC Champions League Elite

BURIRAM UNITED

WWDDDD1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1

BEIJING GUOAN

LLLLLW0–7 · 0–5 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 0–4 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ain	2	+7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	+4	6
3	Pakhtakor	3	+3	5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	2	+3	4
5	Gamba Osaka	2	+3	4
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	+2	4
7	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	+1	4
8	Kashima	1	+6	3
9	SHANGHAI SIPG	1	+2	3
10	Beijing Guoan	1	+2	3
11	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	1	+1	3
12	Jeonbuk Motors	1	+1	3
13	Vissel Kobe	1	+1	3
14	Daejeon Citizen	1	+1	3
15	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	1	+1	3
16	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−1	3
17	Neftchi	2	−1	3
18	Al-Nassr	2	−2	3
19	Al Shamal	2	0	2
20	Buriram United	1	0	1
21	Johor Darul Takzim FC	1	0	1
22	Gangwon FC	1	0	1
23	Tractor Sazi	2	−1	1
24	Kashiwa Reysol	1	−1	0
25	Port FC	1	−1	0
26	Kyoto Sanga	1	−1	0
27	Ratchaburi	1	−2	0
28	Al-Gharafa	2	−2	0
29	Pohang Steelers	1	−2	0
30	Adelaide United	1	−2	0
31	Al-Wasl FC	2	−3	0
32	Al-Jazira	1	−3	0
33	Al Hussein	1	−3	0
34	Al Sadd	1	−3	0
35	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	−4	0
36	Newcastle Jets	1	−6	0