Beijing Guoan v Jeonbuk Motors prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Beijing GuoanDrawJeonbuk Motors

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Beijing Guoan 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Beijing Guoan are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Beijing Guoan 40%, draw 26%, Jeonbuk Motors 34%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Beijing Guoan v Jeonbuk MotorsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Beijing Guoan win40%

Draw26%

Jeonbuk Motors win34%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 12:15

RoundLeague phase · matchday 3

VenueBeijing Workers' Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Beijing Guoan

Jeonbuk Motors

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · the Chinese Super League

Last match: 24 Oct · K League 1

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Beijing Guoan	2	+3	6
10	Jeonbuk Motors	2	−1	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · beijing guoan winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Beijing Guoan a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Beijing Guoan v Jeonbuk Motors~~1.51 – 1.38

~~Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 15 Sept~~W2 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~4 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Beijing Guoan win	40%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Jeonbuk Motors win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Beijing Guoan or draw	66%	–	–
Beijing Guoan clean sheet	25%	–	–
Jeonbuk Motors clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.0 7.3 5.3 2.4 1 8.0 12.0 8.0 3.7 2 6.3 8.7 6.0 2.8 3 3.2 4.4 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Beijing Guoan down, Jeonbuk Motors across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,565 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 23 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Beijing Guoan play in the Chinese Super League, Jeonbuk Motors in K League 1.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Beijing Guoan are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Beijing Guoan, 1.38 for Jeonbuk Motors. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 15 Sept

BEIJING GUOAN

WW3–1 · 1–0

JEONBUK MOTORS

WL2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27 · East Region

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kashima	2	+7	6
2	Gamba Osaka	2	+5	6
3	Vissel Kobe	2	+3	6
4	Beijing Guoan	2	+3	6
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	2	+2	4
6	Johor Darul Takzim FC	2	+2	4
7	Daejeon Citizen	2	+1	4
8	Kashiwa Reysol	2	+3	3
9	Kyoto Sanga	2	0	3
10	Jeonbuk Motors	2	−1	3
11	Buriram United	2	−1	1
12	Ratchaburi	2	−3	0
13	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−4	0
14	Pohang Steelers	2	−4	0
15	Port FC	2	−5	0
16	Newcastle Jets	2	−8	0