Al-Wasl FC v Al-Ahli Jeddah prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:31

Al-Wasl FC 1–3 Al-Ahli Jeddah AL-AHLI JEDDAH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Ahli Jeddah win~~51%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.356

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.397

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Ahli Jeddah win at 51%.
2′Much as we predicted: Al-Ahli Jeddah was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 25–23–51
14′Much as we predicted: Al-Ahli Jeddah was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 25–25–49
15′Much as we predicted: Al-Ahli Jeddah was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 25–26–49
19′Al-Ahli Jeddah ahead on 20′ through Roger Ibañez. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–16–75
22′We published Al-Ahli Jeddah at 51%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 9–16–75
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Al-Ahli Jeddah win: 51% at kick-off, 75% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Al-Ahli Jeddah win: 51% at kick-off, 49% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Al-Ahli Jeddah win: 51% at kick-off, 75% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Al-Ahli Jeddah win: 51% at kick-off, 49% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Al-Ahli Jeddah win: 51% at kick-off, 49% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Al-Ahli Jeddah win: 51% at kick-off, 75% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Al-Ahli Jeddah win: 51% at kick-off, 75% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Al-Ahli Jeddah win: 51% at kick-off, 49% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Al-Ahli Jeddah win: 51% at kick-off, 49% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Al-Ahli Jeddah win: 51% at kick-off, 75% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 8–17–75
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Al-Ahli Jeddah win: 51% at kick-off, 49% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Al-Ahli Jeddah win: 51% at kick-off, 75% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Al-Ahli Jeddah win: 51% at kick-off, 75% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Al-Ahli Jeddah win: 51% at kick-off, 49% now
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Adryelson Shawann Lima Silva · Al-Wasl FC
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Al-Wasl FC 1–1 Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pedro Jorge Gonçalves Malheiro
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al-Wasl FC · On: Saša Ivković · Off: Adryelson Shawann Lima Silva Corrected
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' Al-Wasl FC 1–1 Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pedro Jorge Gonçalves Malheiro (assist Adryelson Shawann Lima Silva)
46′SECOND HALF Al-Wasl FC 1–1 Al-Ahli Jeddah
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' Al-Wasl FC 0–1 Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pedro Jorge Gonçalves Malheiro
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Al-Wasl FC 1–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pedro Jorge Gonçalves Malheiro
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Al-Wasl FC 1–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah · Francisco Trincão
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Al-Wasl FC · On: Cameron Puertas · Off: Siaka Sidibe
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Al-Wasl FC · On: Leandro Spadacio leite · Off: Brahian Palacios Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Al-Ahli Jeddah · On: Makaya Ibrahima Diaby · Off: Eduard Spertsyan
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Al-Wasl FC · On: Renato Barbosa dos Santos Júnior · Off: Nicolás Giménez Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Al-Ahli Jeddah · On: Mohammed Sulaiman · Off: Saleh Aboulshamat Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al-Wasl FC · On: Matheus Saldanha · Off: Mehdi Taremi
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Makaya Ibrahima Diaby · Al-Ahli Jeddah
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Cameron Puertas · Al-Wasl FC
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Al-Wasl FC 1–3 Al-Ahli Jeddah · Firas Al-Buraikan
FTFULL TIME Al-Wasl FC 1–3 Al-Ahli Jeddah
FTAl-Wasl FC 1–3 Al-Ahli Jeddah · Al-Ahli Jeddah win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:02 · locked at kick-off

Al-Wasl FC win25%

Draw24%

Al-Ahli Jeddah win51%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 17:00

VenueZabeel Stadium

Line-ups

Al-Wasl FC

4-2-3-1

Al-Ahli Jeddah

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Al-Wasl FC

Al-Ahli Jeddah

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	Al-Ahli Jeddah	1	0	1
23	Al-Wasl FC	1	−1	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Wasl FC

4-2-3-1

23 Dinko Horkaš

79 Pedro Malheiro

4 Soufiane Bouftini

34 Adryelson

16 Hugo

6 Siaka Sidibe

5 Rilwan Abdulrazaq Popoola

30 Brahian Palacios

31 Nicolás Giménez

19 Serginho

9 Mehdi Taremi

Coach · Rui Vitoria

Substitutes

15 · Saša Ivković

77 · Leandro Leite

21 · Cameron Puertas

96 · Renato Júnior

20 · Matheus Saldanha

99 · Yann Llahona

17 · Suhail Abdulla Ibrahim

14 · Rodrigo

12 · Abdulrahman Saleh Khamis

8 · Yahia Nader

10 · Fábio Lima

13 · Renato Tapia

Al-Ahli Jeddah

4-2-3-1

1 Abdulrahman Al Sanbi

15 Saeed Baattia

28 Merih Demiral

3 Roger Ibañez

31 Saad Yaslam Balobaid

6 Valentin Atangana Edoa

30 Ziyad Aljohani

7 Francisco Trincão

8 Eduard Spertsyan

47 Saleh Abu Al-Shamat

17 Ivan Toney

Coach · Marino Pusic

Substitutes

19 · Artem Bondarenko

9 · Firas Al-Buraikan

4 · Makaya Ibrahima Diaby

5 · Mohammed Sulaiman Bakor

62 · Abdullah Abdo

72 · Salman Al-Jadani

46 · Rayan Hamed

20 · Matheus Gonçalves

87 · Ramez Al-Attar

11 · Meshal Al Mutairi

25 · Faisal Ibrahim Fallatah

21 · Abdullah Radif

Our number · al-ahli jeddah winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 11 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

51% The market49%

Us51%

~~Market~~49%

We make Al-Ahli Jeddah a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al-ahli jeddah win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 51% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Wasl FC win	25%	27%	−2
Draw	24%	24%	−1
Al-Ahli Jeddah win	51%	49%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	59%	61%	−2
Both teams to score	60%	62%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	37%	40%	−4
Al-Wasl FC or draw	49%	51%	−3
Al-Wasl FC clean sheet	16%	–	–
Al-Ahli Jeddah clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.1 8.3 7.9 4.8 2.2 1 5.4 10.9 9.7 5.9 2.7 2 3.5 6.5 5.9 3.6 3 2.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Wasl FC down, Al-Ahli Jeddah across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,935 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 12 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Al-Wasl FC play in the Pro League, Al-Ahli Jeddah in the Pro League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Al-Wasl FC are at home.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Al-Wasl FC, 1.83 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 16:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ALW 0–2 ALA

Form · last six in AFC Champions League Elite

AL-WASL FC

DLLDLL1–1 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–2

AL-AHLI JEDDAH

WDWWDD4–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Ittihad FC	2	+3	4
2	Gamba Osaka	2	+3	4
3	Pakhtakor	2	+3	4
4	Kashima	1	+6	3
5	Al Ain	1	+4	3
6	Esteghlal FC	1	+3	3
7	SHANGHAI SIPG	1	+2	3
8	Beijing Guoan	1	+2	3
9	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	1	+1	3
10	Al-Qadisiyah FC	1	+1	3
11	Jeonbuk Motors	1	+1	3
12	Vissel Kobe	1	+1	3
13	Daejeon Citizen	1	+1	3
14	Neftchi	1	+1	3
15	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	1	+1	3
16	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−1	3
17	Al Shamal	1	0	1
18	Al-Ahli Jeddah	1	0	1
19	Buriram United	1	0	1
20	Johor Darul Takzim FC	1	0	1
21	Gangwon FC	1	0	1
22	Al-Gharafa	1	−1	0
23	Al-Wasl FC	1	−1	0
24	Kashiwa Reysol	1	−1	0
25	Port FC	1	−1	0
26	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1	−1	0
27	Kyoto Sanga	1	−1	0
28	Tractor Sazi	1	−1	0
29	Ratchaburi	1	−2	0
30	Pohang Steelers	1	−2	0
31	Adelaide United	1	−2	0
32	Al-Jazira	1	−3	0
33	Al Hussein	1	−3	0
34	Al Sadd	1	−3	0
35	Al-Nassr	1	−4	0
36	Newcastle Jets	1	−6	0