Al Shamal v Al-Hilal Saudi FC prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al ShamalDrawAl-Hilal Saudi FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Hilal Saudi FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Shamal 11%, draw 17%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Al Shamal v Al-Hilal Saudi FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Shamal win11%

Draw17%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC win73%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 18:15

RoundLeague phase · matchday 3

VenueAl Bayt Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Shamal

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

4Days since last match4

Last match: 23 Oct · Stars League

Last match: 23 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	2	+3	6
10	Al Shamal	2	0	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-hilal saudi fc winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:26 · locked at kick-off

73% The market–

Us73%

We make Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 73% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–2.5, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Shamal v Al-Hilal Saudi FC~~0.87 – 2.50

~~Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 14 Sept~~W0 D2 L0 · W2 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 2 v 6~~10 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Hilal Saudi FC win

Published at 71%, 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Shamal win	11%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Al-Hilal Saudi FC win	73%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Al Shamal or draw	27%	–	–
Al Shamal clean sheet	8%	–	–
Al-Hilal Saudi FC clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.8%

0123450 3.7 8.4 10.8 9.0 5.6 2.81 2.8 7.7 9.4 7.8 4.9 2.42 3.2 4.0 3.4 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Shamal down, Al-Hilal Saudi FC across0–5 goals a side shown (95.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,565 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 23 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Al Shamal play in Stars League, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in the Saudi Pro League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Al Shamal are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

0.87 goals for Al Shamal, 2.50 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 14 Sept

AL SHAMAL

DD1–1 · 0–0

AL-HILAL SAUDI FC

WW2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27 · West Region

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ain	2	+7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	+4	6
3	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	2	+3	6
4	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	2	+2	6
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	+2	4
6	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	+1	4
7	Neftchi	2	−1	3
8	Al-Nassr	2	−2	3
9	Pakhtakor	2	0	2
10	Al Shamal	2	0	2
11	Al-Ittihad FC	2	−1	1
12	Tractor Sazi	2	−1	1
13	Al-Gharafa	2	−2	0
14	Al-Wasl FC	2	−3	0
15	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	−4	0
16	Al Sadd	2	−5	0