Al Sadd v Al-Hilal Saudi FC prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 19:32

Al Sadd 0–2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC AL-HILAL SAUDI FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Hilal Saudi FC win~~65%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.180

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.232

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Hilal Saudi FC win at 65%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 18–17–65
1′KICK-OFF Al Sadd v Al-Hilal Saudi FC
19′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Agustin soria · Al Sadd
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Mohamed Kanno · Al-Hilal Saudi FC
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
40′We said Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 0–1 · 6–13–81
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Al Sadd 0–1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 65% at kick-off, 81% now
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Al Sadd 0–1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC · Ollie Watkins
42′40′ and it is 0–1: Ollie Watkins on the scoresheet for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. 0–1 · 6–14–81
45′HALF-TIME Al Sadd 0–1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC
46′SECOND HALF Al Sadd 0–1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC
63′PENALTY · 61' Al-Hilal Saudi FC
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Al Sadd 0–2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC · Ollie Watkins
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Al Sadd 0–2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC · Rúben Neves
66′Al-Hilal Saudi FC ahead on 65′ through Rúben Neves. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
66′We said Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–2 · 0–3–97
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: 65% at kick-off, 97% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Al-Hilal Saudi FC · On: Murad Al Hawsawi · Off: Mohamed Kanno Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Al Sadd · On: Saad Al-Sheeb · Off: Meshaal Barsham Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Al Sadd · On: Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silva · Off: Hashim Ali Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Al Sadd · On: Mohamed Camara · Off: Agustin soria Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al Sadd · On: Yusuf Abdurisag · Off: Mohamed Manai Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al-Hilal Saudi FC · On: Theo Hernandez · Off: Moteb Al-Harbi Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Al-Hilal Saudi FC · On: Sabri Dahal · Off: Sultan Mandash Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al-Hilal Saudi FC · On: Mohamed Kader Meïté · Off: Ollie Watkins Corrected
84′We said Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Al-Hilal Saudi FC · On: Ali Lajami · Off: Kalidou Koulibaly Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 98' Simone Inzaghi · Al-Hilal Saudi FC
FTFULL TIME Al Sadd 0–2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC
FTAl Sadd 0–2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC · Al-Hilal Saudi FC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

Al Sadd win18%

Draw17%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC win65%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 17:00

VenueJassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Line-ups

Al Sadd

4-2-3-1

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Al Sadd

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

29Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	1	+1	3
34	Al Sadd	1	−3	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Sadd

4-2-3-1

22 M. Barsham

2 Pedro Miguel

16 B. Khoukhi

26 A. Romagnoli

6 Paulo Otavio

80 A. Soria

33 Claudinho

23 H. Ali

9 Roberto Firmino

30 A. Afif

17 M. Manai

Coach · Razvan Lucescu

Substitutes

1 · S. Al Sheeb

31 · Y. Abdullla

20 · Y. Atal

3 · Y. El Hannach

10 · H. Al Haydos

4 · M. Camara

5 · T. Salman

14 · M. Meshaal

7 · M. Waad

12 · Y. Abdurisag

11 · Giovani

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

4-3-3

37 Bono

2 M. Mahzari

3 K. Koulibaly

4 Y. Akcicek

24 M. Al Harbi

22 S. Milinkovic-Savic

8 R. Neves

28 M. Kanno

27 S. Mandash

11 O. Watkins

7 G. Martinelli

Coach · Simone Inzaghi

Substitutes

33 · M. Al Owais

17 · M. Al Rubaie

78 · A. Lajami

19 · T. Hernandez

55 · M. Al Dawood

73 · M. Al Sarnoukh

77 · N. Al Habashi

96 · S. Al Zaid

18 · M. Al Hawsawi

75 · M. Meite

70 · S. Bouabre

72 · S. Dahal

Our number · al-hilal saudi fc winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

65% The market61%

Us65%

~~Market~~61%

We make Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–2.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al-hilal saudi fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 56% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Sadd win	18%	19%	−1
Draw	17%	21%	−4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC win	65%	61%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	79%	67%	+12
Both teams to score	71%	63%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	92%	84%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	60%	48%	+12
Al Sadd or draw	35%	39%	−5
Al Sadd clean sheet	6%	–	–
Al-Hilal Saudi FC clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.3%

0123450 4.0 5.8 5.4 3.7 2.01 6.2 8.3 7.6 5.2 2.92 4.3 5.9 5.4 3.7 2.03 2.0 2.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Sadd down, Al-Hilal Saudi FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Al Sadd play in the Stars League, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in the Pro League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Al Sadd are at home.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Al Sadd, 2.75 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ALH 3–3 ALS · ALH 3–1 ALS · ALS 1–1 ALH

Form · last six in AFC Champions League Elite

AL SADD

WWLDDL4–2 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 3–3 · 3–3 · 0–3

AL-HILAL SAUDI FC

WWDWDW4–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ain	2	+7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	+4	6
3	Pakhtakor	3	+3	5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	2	+3	4
5	Gamba Osaka	2	+3	4
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	+2	4
7	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	+1	4
8	Kashima	1	+6	3
9	SHANGHAI SIPG	1	+2	3
10	Beijing Guoan	1	+2	3
11	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	1	+1	3
12	Jeonbuk Motors	1	+1	3
13	Vissel Kobe	1	+1	3
14	Daejeon Citizen	1	+1	3
15	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	1	+1	3
16	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−1	3
17	Neftchi	2	−1	3
18	Al-Nassr	2	−2	3
19	Al Shamal	2	0	2
20	Buriram United	1	0	1
21	Johor Darul Takzim FC	1	0	1
22	Gangwon FC	1	0	1
23	Tractor Sazi	2	−1	1
24	Kashiwa Reysol	1	−1	0
25	Port FC	1	−1	0
26	Kyoto Sanga	1	−1	0
27	Ratchaburi	1	−2	0
28	Al-Gharafa	2	−2	0
29	Pohang Steelers	1	−2	0
30	Adelaide United	1	−2	0
31	Al-Wasl FC	2	−3	0
32	Al-Jazira	1	−3	0
33	Al Hussein	1	−3	0
34	Al Sadd	1	−3	0
35	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	−4	0
36	Newcastle Jets	1	−6	0