Al Quwa Al Jawiya v Pakhtakor prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al Quwa Al JawiyaDrawPakhtakor

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Pakhtakor 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pakhtakor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 26%, draw 27%, Pakhtakor 46%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Al Quwa Al Jawiya v PakhtakorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Quwa Al Jawiya win26%

Draw27%

Pakhtakor win46%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 18:15

RoundLeague phase · matchday 3

VenueAL Madina Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Pakhtakor

4Days since last match3

Last match: 22 Oct · Iraqi League

Last match: 23 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Pakhtakor	2	0	2
15	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	−4	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pakhtakor winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:26 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Pakhtakor a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Quwa Al Jawiya v Pakhtakor~~1.03 – 1.44

~~Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 11 Aug~~W0 D0 L2 · W1 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 2~~15 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pakhtakor win

Published at 47%, 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Quwa Al Jawiya win	26%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Pakhtakor win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Al Quwa Al Jawiya or draw	54%	–	–
Al Quwa Al Jawiya clean sheet	24%	–	–
Pakhtakor clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 8.9 11.8 8.8 4.2 1 8.3 13.0 9.0 4.3 2 4.5 6.4 4.6 2.2 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Quwa Al Jawiya down, Pakhtakor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 409,754 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 24 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Al Quwa Al Jawiya play in Iraqi League, Pakhtakor in Super League (Uzbekistan).

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Al Quwa Al Jawiya are at home.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Al Quwa Al Jawiya, 1.44 for Pakhtakor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PAK 1–0 ALQ · ALQ 0–0 PAK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 11 Aug

AL QUWA AL JAWIYA

LL0–1 · 1–4

PAKHTAKOR

WDD3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27 · West Region

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ain	2	+7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	+4	6
3	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	2	+3	6
4	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	2	+2	6
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	+2	4
6	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	+1	4
7	Neftchi	2	−1	3
8	Al-Nassr	2	−2	3
9	Pakhtakor	2	0	2
10	Al Shamal	2	0	2
11	Al-Ittihad FC	2	−1	1
12	Tractor Sazi	2	−1	1
13	Al-Gharafa	2	−2	0
14	Al-Wasl FC	2	−3	0
15	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	−4	0
16	Al Sadd	2	−5	0