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Al Quwa Al Jawiya v Al Ain

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1–4Full time

Al Ain

AFC Champions League Elite · MON 12 OCT · Basra Sports City

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:52

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1–4 Al Ain AL AIN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Ain win~~58%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.266

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.191

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 45 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Ain win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Ain was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 20–22–58
1′KICK-OFF Al Quwa Al Jawiya v Al Ain
12′Alejandro Romero Gamarra scores for Al Ain on 13′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–13–80
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–1 Al Ain
12′⚽ GOAL · 13' Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–1 Al Ain
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Al Ain win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Al Ain win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
15′We published Al Ain at 58%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 6–14–80
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Al Ain win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–2 Al Ain · Alejandro Romero Gamarra
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Al Ain win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
17′⚽ GOAL · 18' Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–2 Al Ain · Saed Al-Rosan
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Al Ain win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
19′18′ and it is 0–2: Saed Al-Rosan on the scoresheet for Al Ain. 0–2 · 1–5–94
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Al Ain win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Al Ain win: 58% at kick-off, 94% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Al Ain win: 58% at kick-off, 94% now
21′We published Al Ain at 58%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Al Ain win: 58% at kick-off, 94% now
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–3 Al Ain · Saed Al-Rosan
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Al Ain win: 58% at kick-off, 94% now
23′We published Al Ain at 58%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Al Ain win: 58% at kick-off, 94% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Al Ain win: 58% at kick-off, 99% now
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–3 Al Ain · Houssine Rahimi
24′Al Ain ahead on 23′ through Houssine Rahimi. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Al Ain win: 58% at kick-off, 99% now
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–4 Al Ain · Houssine Rahimi
26′We published Al Ain at 58%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Al Ain win: 58% at kick-off, 99% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Al Ain win: 58% at kick-off, 99% now
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–4 Al Ain · Houssine Rahimi
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–4 Al Ain · Houssine Rahimi
45′SECOND HALF Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–4 Al Ain
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Quwa Al Jawiya · On: Hareth Hatem · Off: Abbas Adil Neamah Al Chnani Corrected
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Quwa Al Jawiya · On: Moses Orkuma · Off: Tuisila Kisinda Corrected
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Quwa Al Jawiya · On: Muslim Mousa · Off: Haythem Jouini Corrected
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–5 Al Ain · Houssine Rahimi
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–5 Al Ain · Soufiane Rahimi
52′⚽ GOAL · 50' Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–4 Al Ain · Soufiane Rahimi (assist Houssine Rahimi)
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Al Quwa Al Jawiya · On: Ali Saad · Off: Mohanad Jeahze Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Al Ain · On: Adis Jasic · Off: Rafa Rodrigues Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Al Ain · On: Baba Bello Ilou · Off: Houssine Rahimi Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Al Ain · On: Teun Gijselhart · Off: Valentino Lazaro Corrected
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Abdulameer · Al Quwa Al Jawiya
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Al Quwa Al Jawiya · On: Mohammad Sami · Off: Abdulameer Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al Ain · On: Ibrahima Junior Ndiaye · Off: Alejandro Romero Gamarra Corrected
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1–4 Al Ain · Houssine Rahimi
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Al Ain · On: Marcos André Paulino Maia · Off: Djordje Skoko Corrected
85′PENALTY MISSED · 84' Mohammad Jawad · Al Quwa Al Jawiya
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1–4 Al Ain · Houssine Rahimi
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1–4 Al Ain · Mohammad Jawad
FTFULL TIME Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1–4 Al Ain
FTAl Quwa Al Jawiya 1–4 Al Ain · Al Ain win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

Al Quwa Al Jawiya win20%

Draw23%

Al Ain win58%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:15

VenueBasra Sports City

Line-ups

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

5-4-1

Al Ain

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Al Ain

28Days since last match27

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Al Ain	1	+4	3
26	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1	−1	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

5-4-1

95 M. Saleh

17 A. Adil

2 R. Hanoon

5 S. Al Rosan

19 A. Boudrama

6 M. Jeahze

29 T. Kisinda

25 S. Abdulameer

24 A. Fawzi

9 H. Jouini

10 M. Jawad

Coach · Fathi Al Jabal

Substitutes

31 · M. R. Dalfi

3 · M. Mousa

90 · K. Ali Hassan

21 · R. Sadeeq

13 · M. Muhsen

16 · M. Orkuma

73 · A. Saad

8 · A. H. Hatem

77 · M. Sami

11 · M. Mohammad

7 · A. Okpotu

18 · A. A. Taher

Al Ain

5-3-2

17 K. Eisa

19 V. Lazaro

4 Y. Ben Khaleq

25 R. Rabia

6 D. Skoko

2 R. Rodrigues

10 Kaku

70 A. K. Traore

20 M. Palacios

21 S. Rahimi

13 E. H. Rahimi

Coach · Vladimir Ivic

Substitutes

35 · S. Hassan

65 · A. Hamisi

15 · Erik Menezes

3 · Marcos Maia

54 · I. Okpoti

56 · A. Niang

97 · A. Jasic

5 · T. Gijselhart

30 · Hazim Mohammad

80 · J. Udoh

18 · B. Bello Ilou

38 · I. Ndiaye

Our number · al ain winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

58% The market65%

Us58%

~~Market~~65%

We make Al Ain a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al ain win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 63% to 65% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Quwa Al Jawiya win	20%	14%	+5
Draw	23%	21%	+2
Al Ain win	58%	65%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	57%	56%	+1
Both teams to score	55%	51%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	78%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	35%	−1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya or draw	42%	35%	+7
Al Quwa Al Jawiya clean sheet	15%	–	–
Al Ain clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.5 9.6 9.6 6.2 3.0 1 5.0 10.6 9.9 6.4 3.1 2 2.8 5.3 5.1 3.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Quwa Al Jawiya down, Al Ain across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,935 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 12 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Al Quwa Al Jawiya play in the Iraqi League, Al Ain in the Pro League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Al Quwa Al Jawiya are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Al Quwa Al Jawiya, 1.93 for Al Ain. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 18:49. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in AFC Champions League Elite since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in AFC Champions League Elite

AL QUWA AL JAWIYA

WLWLWL2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 0–1

AL AIN

LLDLLW1–5 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Ittihad FC	2	+3	4
2	Gamba Osaka	2	+3	4
3	Pakhtakor	2	+3	4
4	Kashima	1	+6	3
5	Al Ain	1	+4	3
6	Esteghlal FC	1	+3	3
7	SHANGHAI SIPG	1	+2	3
8	Beijing Guoan	1	+2	3
9	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	1	+1	3
10	Al-Qadisiyah FC	1	+1	3
11	Jeonbuk Motors	1	+1	3
12	Vissel Kobe	1	+1	3
13	Daejeon Citizen	1	+1	3
14	Neftchi	1	+1	3
15	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	1	+1	3
16	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−1	3
17	Al Shamal	1	0	1
18	Al-Ahli Jeddah	1	0	1
19	Buriram United	1	0	1
20	Johor Darul Takzim FC	1	0	1
21	Gangwon FC	1	0	1
22	Al-Gharafa	1	−1	0
23	Al-Wasl FC	1	−1	0
24	Kashiwa Reysol	1	−1	0
25	Port FC	1	−1	0
26	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1	−1	0
27	Kyoto Sanga	1	−1	0
28	Tractor Sazi	1	−1	0
29	Ratchaburi	1	−2	0
30	Pohang Steelers	1	−2	0
31	Adelaide United	1	−2	0
32	Al-Jazira	1	−3	0
33	Al Hussein	1	−3	0
34	Al Sadd	1	−3	0
35	Al-Nassr	1	−4	0
36	Newcastle Jets	1	−6	0