Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al Sadd prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al-Qadisiyah FCDrawAl Sadd

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Al-Qadisiyah FC 66%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Qadisiyah FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Qadisiyah FC 66%, draw 17%, Al Sadd 17%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al SaddBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al-Qadisiyah FC win66%

Draw17%

Al Sadd win17%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 18:15

RoundLeague phase · matchday 3

VenuePrince Mohammed Bin Fahd Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Qadisiyah FC

Al Sadd

3Days since last match4

Last match: 23 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 22 Oct · Stars League

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	+1	4
16	Al Sadd	2	−5	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-qadisiyah fc winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Al-Qadisiyah FC a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al Sadd~~2.76 – 1.42

~~Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 14 Sept~~W1 D1 L0 · W0 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 0~~6 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Qadisiyah FC win	66%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Al Sadd win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	79%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	60%	–	–
Al-Qadisiyah FC or draw	83%	–	–
Al-Qadisiyah FC clean sheet	24%	–	–
Al Sadd clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 1 4.0 6.2 4.2 2.0 2 5.8 8.3 5.9 2.8 3 5.4 7.6 5.4 2.6 4 3.7 5.3 3.7 5 2.1 2.9 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Qadisiyah FC down, Al Sadd across0–5 goals a side shown (93.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,565 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 23 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Al-Qadisiyah FC play in the Saudi Pro League, Al Sadd in Stars League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Al-Qadisiyah FC are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

2.76 goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 1.42 for Al Sadd. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 14 Sept

AL-QADISIYAH FC

WD2–1 · 1–1

AL SADD

LL0–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27 · West Region

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ain	2	+7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	+4	6
3	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	2	+3	6
4	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	2	+2	6
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	+2	4
6	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	+1	4
7	Neftchi	2	−1	3
8	Al-Nassr	2	−2	3
9	Pakhtakor	2	0	2
10	Al Shamal	2	0	2
11	Al-Ittihad FC	2	−1	1
12	Tractor Sazi	2	−1	1
13	Al-Gharafa	2	−2	0
14	Al-Wasl FC	2	−3	0
15	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	−4	0
16	Al Sadd	2	−5	0