Al-Nassr v Neftchi prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 22:30

Al-Nassr 3–1 Neftchi AL-NASSR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Nassr win~~69%

~~The market said~~79%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.142

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.071

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Nassr win at 69%.
1′KICK-OFF Al-Nassr v Neftchi
12′SUBSTITUTION · 13' Al-Nassr · On: Ayman Yahya · Off: Kingsley Coman Corrected
16′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Ibrokhimkhalil Yuldoshev · Neftchi
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Anvarjon Gofurov · Neftchi
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Al-Nassr 1–0 Neftchi
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Al-Nassr 1–0 Neftchi · Angelo Borges
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Al-Nassr 2–0 Neftchi · Angelo Borges
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Al-Nassr 2–0 Neftchi · Cristiano Ronaldo
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Al-Nassr 2–1 Neftchi · Cristiano Ronaldo
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Al-Nassr 2–1 Neftchi · Marcus Forss (assist Koffi Kouao)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Marcus Forss · Neftchi
45′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Iñigo Martínez · Al-Nassr
45′SECOND HALF Al-Nassr 2–0 Neftchi
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Iñigo Martínez · Al-Nassr
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Marcus Forss · Neftchi
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Al-Nassr 2–1 Neftchi · Cristiano Ronaldo
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Al-Nassr 2–1 Neftchi · Alisher Odilov
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Neftchi · On: Stipe Perica · Off: Marcus Forss Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Neftchi · On: Asilbek Jumaev · Off: Abrorbek ismoilov Corrected
65′🟥 RED CARD · 65' Ikromzhon Alibaev · Neftchi
67′🟥 RED CARD · 67' Ikromzhon Alibaev · Neftchi
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Neftchi · On: Ratinho · Off: Michel
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Al-Nassr · On: Nader Abdullah Al-Sharari · Off: Mohamed Simakan Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Al-Nassr · On: Abdullah Al-Khaibari · Off: Ayman Yahya Corrected
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Al-Nassr 3–1 Neftchi · Alisher Odilov
77′⚽ GOAL · 78' Al-Nassr 3–1 Neftchi · Anvarjon Gofurov
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al-Nassr · On: Abdullah Al-Hamdan · Off: Sadio Mané Corrected
FTFULL TIME Al-Nassr 3–1 Neftchi
FTAl-Nassr 3–1 Neftchi · Al-Nassr win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

Al-Nassr win69%

Draw19%

Neftchi win12%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:15

VenueAl-Awwal Park

RefereeMa Ning

Line-ups

Al-Nassr

4-4-2

Neftchi

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Al-Nassr

Neftchi

27Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Neftchi	1	+1	3
35	Al-Nassr	1	−4	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Nassr

4-4-2

24 Bento

12 N. Boushal

3 M. Simakan

26 I. Martinez

70 A. Aman

21 K. Coman

11 Samu Costa

20 Angelo

10 S. Mane

79 Joao Felix

7 C. Ronaldo

Coach · Ange Postecoglou

Substitutes

53 · A. Al Otaibi

66 · S. Al-Mas

4 · N. Al Sharari

23 · A. Yahya

8 · H. Abdulkareem

17 · A. Al Khaibari

14 · S. Al Najei

9 · A. Al Hamdan

60 · S. Haqawi

Neftchi

5-4-1

1 B. Ergashev

52 K. Kouao

3 Michel

20 A. Gofurov

4 B. Ciger

6 I. Yuldoshev

7 A. Ismoilov

5 I. Alibaev

10 J. Iskanderov

31 Yan Sasse

88 M. Forss

Coach · Islom Ismoilov

Substitutes

45 · A. Turaev

34 · F. Sayfiev

15 · N. Abduganiyev

21 · M. Ubaydullaev

77 · Ratinho

11 · A. Jumaev

8 · V. Jovovic

22 · A. Odilov

32 · Z. Marusic

9 · K. Giyosov

18 · S. Perica

71 · B. Toshmirzaev

Our number · al-nassr winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

69% The market79%

Us69%

~~Market~~79%

We make Al-Nassr a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 79%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al-nassr win The market, margin stripped

Published at 70%, 69% now. The market has gone from 80% to 79% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Nassr win	69%	79%	−9
Draw	19%	14%	+5
Neftchi win	12%	8%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	60%	70%	−10
Both teams to score	51%	51%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	86%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	38%	50%	−12
Al-Nassr or draw	88%	92%	−4
Al-Nassr clean sheet	43%	–	–
Neftchi clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.6%

0123450 4.8 3.5 1 9.9 8.8 3.6 2 11.6 9.6 4.0 3 8.7 7.3 3.0 4 4.9 4.1 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Nassr down, Neftchi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,935 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 12 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Al-Nassr play in the Pro League, Neftchi in the Super League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Al-Nassr are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

2.27 goals for Al-Nassr, 0.84 for Neftchi. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 18:49. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in AFC Champions League Elite since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in AFC Champions League Elite

AL-NASSR

DDWWLL0–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 4–1 · 2–3 · 0–4

NEFTCHI

W1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Ittihad FC	2	+3	4
2	Gamba Osaka	2	+3	4
3	Pakhtakor	2	+3	4
4	Kashima	1	+6	3
5	Al Ain	1	+4	3
6	Esteghlal FC	1	+3	3
7	SHANGHAI SIPG	1	+2	3
8	Beijing Guoan	1	+2	3
9	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	1	+1	3
10	Al-Qadisiyah FC	1	+1	3
11	Jeonbuk Motors	1	+1	3
12	Vissel Kobe	1	+1	3
13	Daejeon Citizen	1	+1	3
14	Neftchi	1	+1	3
15	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	1	+1	3
16	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−1	3
17	Al Shamal	1	0	1
18	Al-Ahli Jeddah	1	0	1
19	Buriram United	1	0	1
20	Johor Darul Takzim FC	1	0	1
21	Gangwon FC	1	0	1
22	Al-Gharafa	1	−1	0
23	Al-Wasl FC	1	−1	0
24	Kashiwa Reysol	1	−1	0
25	Port FC	1	−1	0
26	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1	−1	0
27	Kyoto Sanga	1	−1	0
28	Tractor Sazi	1	−1	0
29	Ratchaburi	1	−2	0
30	Pohang Steelers	1	−2	0
31	Adelaide United	1	−2	0
32	Al-Jazira	1	−3	0
33	Al Hussein	1	−3	0
34	Al Sadd	1	−3	0
35	Al-Nassr	1	−4	0
36	Newcastle Jets	1	−6	0