Al-Nassr v Al-Wasl FC prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al-NassrDrawAl-Wasl FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Al-Nassr 68%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Nassr are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Nassr 68%, draw 18%, Al-Wasl FC 14%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Al-Nassr v Al-Wasl FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al-Nassr win68%

Draw18%

Al-Wasl FC win14%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 18:15

RoundLeague phase · matchday 3

VenueAl-Awwal Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Nassr

Al-Wasl FC

3Days since last match4

Last match: 23 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 22 Oct · Presidents Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Al-Nassr	2	−2	3
14	Al-Wasl FC	2	−3	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-nassr winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

68% The market72%

Us68%

~~Market~~72%

We make Al-Nassr a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Nassr v Al-Wasl FC~~2.49 – 1.07

~~Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 14 Sept~~W1 D0 L1 · W0 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 0~~8 v 14

~~The market · Al-Nassr win~~72% · ours 68%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Nassr win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Nassr win	68%	72%	−4
Draw	18%	17%	+1
Al-Wasl FC win	14%	11%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	69%	67%	+2
Both teams to score	60%	56%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	87%	84%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	48%	46%	+2
Al-Nassr or draw	86%	89%	−3
Al-Nassr clean sheet	34%	–	–
Al-Wasl FC clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.1 2.8 1 6.8 7.8 4.0 2 8.8 9.4 5.0 3 7.3 7.8 4.2 4 4.6 4.9 2.6 5 2.3 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Nassr down, Al-Wasl FC across0–5 goals a side shown (95.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 409,721 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 24 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Al-Nassr play in the Saudi Pro League, Al-Wasl FC in Pro League (United Arab Emirates).

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Al-Nassr are at home.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

2.49 goals for Al-Nassr, 1.07 for Al-Wasl FC. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALW 0–4 ALN · ALN 4–0 ALW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 14 Sept

AL-NASSR

LW0–4 · 3–1

AL-WASL FC

LL1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27 · West Region

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ain	2	+7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	+4	6
3	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	2	+3	6
4	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	2	+2	6
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	+2	4
6	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	+1	4
7	Neftchi	2	−1	3
8	Al-Nassr	2	−2	3
9	Pakhtakor	2	0	2
10	Al Shamal	2	0	2
11	Al-Ittihad FC	2	−1	1
12	Tractor Sazi	2	−1	1
13	Al-Gharafa	2	−2	0
14	Al-Wasl FC	2	−3	0
15	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	−4	0
16	Al Sadd	2	−5	0