Al-Ittihad FC v Shabab Al Ahli Dubai prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:03

Al-Ittihad FC 1–2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai AL-ITTIHAD FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Ittihad FC win~~48%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.792

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.954

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Ittihad FC win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al-Ittihad FC was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–29
1′KICK-OFF Al-Ittihad FC v Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
7′Shabab Al Ahli Dubai find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 25–22–53
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Al-Ittihad FC 0–1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Al-Ittihad FC win: 48% at kick-off, 25% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Al-Ittihad FC win 25%)
8′We said Al-Ittihad FC at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–1 · 25–22–53
10′We said Al-Ittihad FC at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–22–53
16′SUBSTITUTION · 16' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · On: Reza Ghandipour · Off: Guilherme da Silva Goncalves Corrected
17′Sardar Azmoun scores for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 16′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 9–14–77
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Al-Ittihad FC 0–2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · Sardar Azmoun
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Al-Ittihad FC 0–2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · Sardar Azmoun
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Al-Ittihad FC win: 48% at kick-off, 9% now
18′We said Al-Ittihad FC at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–2 · 9–14–78
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Al-Ittihad FC win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
42′We said Al-Ittihad FC at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
45′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–2 · 4–10–86
45′HALF-TIME Al-Ittihad FC 0–2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al-Ittihad FC · On: Mukhtar Ali · Off: Dion Lopy Corrected
46′SECOND HALF Al-Ittihad FC 0–2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
60′Al-Ittihad FC have had 14.0 attempts to 8.0 and it is still 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · On: Mateus Henrique Alves Silva · Off: Jahnoah Markelo Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · On: Rikelme Hernandes Amorim Rocha · Off: Kauan Santos Silva Corrected
63′Al-Ittihad FC have had 16.0 attempts to 8.0 and it is still 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–92
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Al-Ittihad FC · On: Muath Faquihi · Off: Ahmed Al Julaydan Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Al-Ittihad FC · On: Marwan Al-Sahafi · Off: Faris Abdi Corrected
67′66′ and it is 1–2: Richard Ríos Montoya on the scoresheet for Al-Ittihad FC. 1–2 · 6–22–72
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Al-Ittihad FC 1–2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · Sardar Azmoun
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Al-Ittihad FC 1–2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · Richard Ríos Montoya
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · On: Jorge Fernandes · Off: Igor Gomes Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al-Ittihad FC · On: Houssem Aouar · Off: Georginio Wijnaldum Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · On: Elian Mateo Irala · Off: Breno Cascardo Lemos Corrected
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Richard Ríos Montoya · Al-Ittihad FC
90′Al-Ittihad FC have had 20.0 attempts to 8.0 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Al-Ittihad FC · On: Saleh Al-Shehri · Off: Steven Bergwijn Corrected
FTFULL TIME Al-Ittihad FC 1–2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
FTAl-Ittihad FC 1–2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · Al-Ittihad FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

Al-Ittihad FC win48%

Draw23%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win29%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:15

VenueAlinma Stadium

Line-ups

Al-Ittihad FC

4-2-2-2

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

3-1-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Al-Ittihad FC

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

29Days since last match29

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al-Ittihad FC	2	+3	4
15	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	1	+1	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Ittihad FC

4-2-2-2

1 P. Rajkovic

32 A. Al Julaydan

2 D. Pereira

4 J. Simic

25 F. Abdi

5 R. Rios

30 D. Lopy

23 G. Wijnaldum

34 S. Bergwijn

21 Y. En Nesyri

99 G. Ilenikhena

Coach · Jens Wissing

Substitutes

88 · O. Al Mermesh

50 · M. Al Absi

42 · M. Fagihy

13 · M. Al Shanqiti

6 · S. Al Mousa

8 · M. Ali

10 · H. Aouar

60 · R. Kaabi

11 · S. Al Shehri

22 · M. Al Sahafi

29 · F. Al Shamrani

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

3-1-4-2

33 Matheus Donelli

3 I. Gomes

4 W. Faes

13 Renan

6 S. Ezatolahi

24 J. Markelo

80 Breno

88 N. Maksimovic

31 Kauan Santos

20 S. Azmoun

77 Guilherme

Coach · Andre Jardine

Substitutes

1 · R. Al Menhali

44 · J. Fernandes

16 · Rikelme

75 · Mateus Henrique

26 · E. Al Nuaimi

5 · E. Irala

21 · S. Adil

19 · Mateusao

55 · Juan Alvina

70 · Thiago

9 · R. Ghandipour

79 · Joao Marcelo

Our number · al-ittihad fc winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

48% The market55%

Us48%

~~Market~~55%

We make Al-Ittihad FC a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al-ittihad fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Ittihad FC win	48%	55%	−7
Draw	23%	23%	0
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win	29%	22%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	63%	61%	+1
Both teams to score	64%	61%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	41%	41%	0
Al-Ittihad FC or draw	71%	78%	−6
Al-Ittihad FC clean sheet	25%	–	–
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.3 5.1 3.8 1 6.9 10.4 7.0 3.2 2 6.7 9.3 6.5 3.0 3 4.1 5.7 4.0 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Ittihad FC down, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Al-Ittihad FC play in the Pro League, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in the Pro League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Al-Ittihad FC are at home.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Al-Ittihad FC, 1.39 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ALI 0–1 SHA

Form · last six in AFC Champions League Elite

AL-ITTIHAD FC

WWDLWD7–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–1

SHABAB AL AHLI DUBAI

DLWDLW0–0 · 3–4 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ain	2	+7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	+4	6
3	Pakhtakor	3	+3	5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	2	+3	4
5	Gamba Osaka	2	+3	4
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	+2	4
7	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	+1	4
8	Kashima	1	+6	3
9	SHANGHAI SIPG	1	+2	3
10	Beijing Guoan	1	+2	3
11	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	1	+1	3
12	Jeonbuk Motors	1	+1	3
13	Vissel Kobe	1	+1	3
14	Daejeon Citizen	1	+1	3
15	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	1	+1	3
16	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−1	3
17	Neftchi	2	−1	3
18	Al-Nassr	2	−2	3
19	Al Shamal	2	0	2
20	Buriram United	1	0	1
21	Johor Darul Takzim FC	1	0	1
22	Gangwon FC	1	0	1
23	Tractor Sazi	2	−1	1
24	Kashiwa Reysol	1	−1	0
25	Port FC	1	−1	0
26	Kyoto Sanga	1	−1	0
27	Ratchaburi	1	−2	0
28	Al-Gharafa	2	−2	0
29	Pohang Steelers	1	−2	0
30	Adelaide United	1	−2	0
31	Al-Wasl FC	2	−3	0
32	Al-Jazira	1	−3	0
33	Al Hussein	1	−3	0
34	Al Sadd	1	−3	0
35	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	−4	0
36	Newcastle Jets	1	−6	0